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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:43 pm
by Kingwood36
Well the cool down was nice while it lasted all of one day

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:56 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:00 am
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?
I think November was cold, December was warm, January was kinda warm too, then February was very cold. At least that’s how I remember it.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am
by Kingwood36
Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:52 am
by JDsGN
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:53 am
by Kingwood36
JDsGN wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:52 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.
I did also but it's still showing a warning every time I refresh the oage...might be the site itself..

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:45 am
by tireman4
I DMd Steve. I think the certificate is out of date.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:58 am
by Stratton20
12z GFS for the week of christmas is now suggesting a disruption of the polar vortex allowing for some arctic air to spill southward, the trough is beginning to develop around the 24th

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:56 am
by Kingwood36
Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:59 am
by Stratton20
We are starting to see signs of a major pattern change in days 11-12 on the 12z GFS, lets see if this trend continues

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:18 pm
by Kingwood36
Didn't the 12z show a rain snow mix here in south east texas? I know it's 200 plus hrs out but it could be catching on to something

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:19 pm
by Stratton20
Kingwood36 a little bit yes by hour 280 or so, far out, but the gfs has been showing this arctic blast the past 3 runs, hope the trend continues

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:21 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:56 am Anyone still having problems accessing the site?
Once I accepted the security risk, it’s been working normally for me. It said the certificate is out of date.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:34 pm
by Kingwood36
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:21 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:56 am Anyone still having problems accessing the site?
Once I accepted the security risk, it’s been working normally for me. It said the certificate is out of date.
I accepted it also and its still not working on my end on internet explorer..working fine now on Firefox

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:45 pm
by Stratton20
The 00z GFS run by days 11-12 continues to show a major pattern change potentially on the table around the 22nd, this would send arctic air plunging southward as the porlar vortex weakens and a piece of energy breaks off

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:46 am
by Cpv17
I’m still not too confident. The GEFS looks terrible but it’s looking more promising than it did a few days ago.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:52 am
by Kingwood36
Ya, I'm 60/40 on this..40% it will and 60% it wont

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:06 am
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:52 am Ya, I'm 60/40 on this..40% it will and 60% it wont
Same here. Need to see more support from the ensembles.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:15 am
by Stratton20
Im 60% confident in a pattern change, this warm weather pattern will have to come to an end eventually

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:16 am
by Iceresistance
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:56 am Anyone still having problems accessing the site?
Yes, you have to accept the risk. (Finally in!)

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:19 am
by Iceresistance
GFS has been showing snow for Oklahoma at around the 20th or 21st, it has trended south to DFW lately as well.