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Kingwood36 yep this winter is a bust lol, but watch us say that and then we get another winter storm in february lol

Nothing really changed on the 12z. The upper air pattern is still there and has big potential.

CPV17 yeah but that rub of the GFS has “pushed” the bitter cold back in terms of time , thats not something we want to see in a model run, though the GFS still shows it, i suspect we are going to have some interesting model runs in the days going ahead

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:05 pm CPV17 yeah but that rub of the GFS has “pushed” the bitter cold back in terms of time , thats not something we want to see in a model run, though the GFS still shows it, i suspect we are going to have some interesting model runs in the days going ahead

Pattern looks quite cold second half of this month. Combine that with what looks to be an active STJ. Blocking looks great near Alaska and Greenland. I’ll take it. Don’t pay too much attention to the changes in each operational run. That will drive you crazy.

Ah I gotcha, I guess I do get a little too fixated on the operational runs, but their is something interesting on the 12z GFS that happens at hour 228, GFS sniffing out some wintry mischief in the hill country

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:35 am And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff

No, it shifted north, that storm is still there.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:13 pm Ah I gotcha, I guess I do get a little too fixated on the operational runs, but their is something interesting on the 12z GFS that happens at hour 228, GFS sniffing out some wintry mischief in the hill country

Yep. I’m definitely intrigued with that timeframe right now.

CPV17 it has been showing this for the past few days, keeps us in the low 40’s with moisture around, hope we can trend colder with what the gfs is showing

It's winter and I have flowers sprouting lol

This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:32 pm This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro

That definitely looks pretty good.

CPV17 yep! And the fact that the euro isnt the only model showing this setup is a good thing or something to watch

Tonights GFS run got really interesting

12z GEFS ensemble members for next friday

The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:41 am The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference

Always go with the ensemble, especially this far out.

Cpv17 I mean technically 6 days isnt that far out, but its weird to see the operational run that much “warmer” but fwiw 7 of the 20 GEFS members still show a potential wintery precip setup, also 00z Euro run is out

This may not happen since it's in the long range (18z GFS) but YIKES!

Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:49 pm Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant

I remembered seeing models that were similar to this last year, but it was pushed back to February, could this also repeat that? Only time will tell if that's true . . .

EDIT: I do want to mention that the PNA is expected to become Neutral at the end of this month.