I saw this when it came out. It’s sad but it is what is happening. It’s hard to keep an ice chest cold without any ice in it!! It’s a feedback pattern from hell with the permafrost releasing all that methane.
This plus the articles on the glaciers was pretty big news. We are starting to see some real, verifiable changes that are not just anecdotal or coincidental. The tsunami of change continues to build.
Rain chances increase Friday night into Sunday…a few strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible.
Surface cool front is making slow progress toward the coast this morning with low clouds and fog across the coastal and central areas of SE TX. Much drier air mass has filtered into the area around College Station. High pressure over the central plains will push southward by midday pushing the front off the coast and increasing the surface pressure gradient. Increasing northerly winds will bring a much drier and somewhat cooler air mass across the entire region by mid to late afternoon. With clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints, lows tonight will fall into the 30’s for much of the region. Freeze line is expected to extend from Livingston to Conroe to Columbus…these areas have already experienced a freeze a few days ago, so no freeze warning will be required.
Surface low pressure trough will begin to develop along the lower TX coast on Friday and this coastal trough will begin to lift northward Friday night into Saturday. Increasing warm air advection above the surface will result in increasing clouds late Friday from SW to NE over the area and scattered showers will develop Friday evening and spread onshore around Matagorda Bay as lift and moisture increase. Warm front will approach the mid and upper TX coast early Saturday and move inland during the day. Air mass will becoming increasingly saturated with PWS reaching into he 1.4-1.6 range. Heavy rainfall will become increasingly likely during the day on Saturday. With the coastal low moving NNE into Matagorda Bay and then across the area on Saturday along with the position of the warm front, wind shear profiles will be supportive of updraft rotation. SPC has outlooked much of the area in a “marginal” risk for severe weather. Will need to keep an eye on the warm front as these type of setups can result in low topped supercells with some degree of tornado potential even though instability is generally lacking.
Coastal low/trough lifts NE of the area Saturday night and expect a lull in the rainfall activity although warm air advection will remain in place over the region and a few showers may develop in that pattern. Surface front will cross the area Sunday afternoon and evening and this will be at peak heating and within an very moist air mass. Expect another rough of showers and thunderstorms with the front or which some could produce heavy rainfall. Much colder and drier air mass will move into the area Sunday night with cold air advection in place.
Rainfall amounts over the weekend will likely average .50-1.0 inch with isolated amounts of 2-3 inches. This will be welcomed rainfall with the ongoing developing dryness over the area.
December Warmth:
December 2021 ended as the warmest December on record at IAH, Hobby, and Galveston and the 2nd warmest at College Station. A total of 74 heat records were set at SE TX climate sites for the month including 30 at Galveston. Galveston recorded 9 days with a high of 80 degrees or warmer (before December 2021, Galveston had only reached 80 degrees or warmer in the month of December 4 times since records began in 1874…this is a testament to the intensity and duration of the warmth). IAH, Hobby, and Galveston all established new all-time monthly record highs for December. Hobby surpassed its previous December monthly average high temperature record by 5.0 degrees from 1984, IAH by 3.4 degrees from 1933, and Galveston by 3.5 degrees from 1889. Monthly departures from average were: +11.4 degrees at Galveston, +12.9 degrees at Hobby, +12.4 degrees at IAH, and +13.4 degrees at College Station.
Comparison of December 2021 to February 2021:
Of course we all remember the very cold conditions in middle February 2021 and the chart below compares the February departures to the December 2021 departures based on the monthly average:
Location
February 2021
December 2021
Galveston
-3.7
+11.4
Hobby Airport
-5.1
+12.9
IAH
-4.7
+12.4
College Station
-6.4
+13.4
As shown above, the warmth of December 2021 was more than twice that of the cold of February 2021. It was not only the intensity of the warmth, but also the duration…February’s cold lasted about 7 days whereas the December warmth lasted much of the month.
So What is the Cause of the Warmth?
La Nina (or cool water in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean) tends to result in both dry and mild conditions over the southern plains. La Nina conditions are in place, but the intensity of the warmth last month and the spatial coverage of the warmth extending well into the northern and northeastern US was well beyond what is expected in a La Nina winter. Upper level jet streams and patterns can become blocky at times and the weather in place will stay somewhat the same for an extended period of time and December 2021 featured a large sprawling upper level ridge/high over the southern US with a deep cold upper level trough over the Pacific NW into SW Canada. Temperature records have also recently been established in Europe, Alaska, and South America, so it is just not North America seeing the warm conditions. There is likely some degree of background “climate” influence, but to what degree is debatable and unclear. Increasing “extreme events” be it the cold of February 21, the tornadoes in December in KY and then a few days later in the Midwest, or the recent warmth are to varying degrees supported by the climate models in a warmer atmosphere.
While the CAPE doesn't look impressive this weekend, the shear looks sufficient for rotating storms.I suspect they will upgrade the area to a slight risk over the next couple of days.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to perhaps severe storms are possible Saturday over
parts of southeast Texas.
...Discussion..
Southwest flow aloft will gradually increase across the southern
Plains as a shortwave trough moves across the Great Basin and toward
the central Plains. Midlevel winds will initially be weak over
eastern TX averaging around 30 kt, but will increase to about 40 kt
into Sunday morning. Upper-level winds will increase the most, going
from 30 to 50 kt.
Southerly surface winds will push a warm front northward from the
middle TX Coast early Saturday to near the ArkLaTex by 12Z Sunday.
Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north, resulting in around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Instability will initially be elevated prior to
the more robust moisture arriving.
Though the deep-layer shear will be marginal, low-level SRH will be
favorable for rotating storms at over 300 m2/s2 near the warm front.
Storms are forecast to form within the moistening air mass after
18Z, and a supercell cannot be ruled out with brief tornado or gusty
wind threat. Overnight, another round of storms may occur as a cold
front pushes south into north TX, with similar shear profiles as
before. Midlevel lapse rates will be a bit more favorable due to
cooling aloft with the shortwave trough, and marginal hail will be
possible as well.
Well, the Arctic has the Highest Sea Ice levels in Decades! It's currently at the highest this century, with more Sea Ice than 2012 (Previous record).
The old tallest midget argument...
Average Arctic sea ice extent for December 2021 was 12.19 million square kilometers (4.71 million square miles), which ranked thirteenth lowest in the satellite record. The 2021 extent was 650,000 square kilometers (251,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:19 am
Got down to 36° this morning in central Wharton County.
Down to 29°F in CLL. More advection farther north and west for sure. Down to 31°F in San Antonio yesterday. The wind really picked up in the afternoon. We were at the zoo and they rushed the animals inside near closing.
Well, the Arctic has the Highest Sea Ice levels in Decades! It's currently at the highest this century, with more Sea Ice than 2012 (Previous record).
The old tallest midget argument...
Average Arctic sea ice extent for December 2021 was 12.19 million square kilometers (4.71 million square miles), which ranked thirteenth lowest in the satellite record. The 2021 extent was 650,000 square kilometers (251,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average.
That chart was from December 2021, it's January 2022 that has the record.
Either way, big changes could be coming Mid-January through February.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:03 pm
Ice - if you continue to make claims please provide evidence or at least a link.
This graph includes today's data.
I will put out a link/evidence next time I do that.
There is one thing for sure with the graph: It's higher than the 2010s average, could it rival the 2000s Average? (The other image showed it's lower than the average in the 2000s, but it's higher than the years? There is likely some missing data.)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 345 PM CST.
* At 312 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Deer Park, moving north at 20 to 25 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Morgan`s Point around 325 PM CST.
Deer Park around 330 PM CST.
San Jacinto State Park around 335 PM CST.
Western Baytown around 345 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
Multiple cells are showing rotation on radar with small hooks...
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
South central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
East central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 400 PM CST.
* At 336 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Barrett,
moving north at 25 to 35 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Baytown, Highlands, Barrett, Channelview, Crosby and
western Mont Belvieu.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
South central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
North central Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 430 PM CST.
* At 350 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Aldine, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Bush Intercontinental Airport around 400 PM CST.
Humble around 405 PM CST.
Kingwood and Porter Heights around 420 PM CST.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Porter.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
