January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:10 am
jasons2k wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:01 am
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:06 am Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!
How is that awesome? Are you standing outside in shorts and a T-shirt, relishing in it, letting the chill sink deep into the bones? Does that actually feel pleasant? :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
We have clothes that insulate. Cold weather doesn't bother me at all.

There are only so many clothes one can remove in summer. 8-)

No A/C. No sprinklers. It's all good!
That's what swimming pools are for :) :)

Layering-up is just such a hassle for me. You layer-up to trudge outside for a few minutes to do whatever, then when you come back inside, it's like a blast furnace and you have to peel everything off again before you soak your clothes in sweat. Then there's the debate - do I take my coat off before I get in my car? If I run the heat, I'm going to start sweating in this coat, but if I don't run the heat, my legs, feet and hands are gonna turn into ice cubes. Guess the best option is to take the coat off, throw it in the backseat, and run the heat. Then, when I get to my destination, make a mad dash out the car door to grab my coat and bundle-up again. Just boatloads of fun!!

I can't stand to run below about 50°. I need long sleeves with leg and face coverings for my ears, but about a mile into the run I'm getting hot. It's just a pain. I'd much rather just run in my shorts and sweat it out like normal. My muscles and tendons like the warmer weather too, especially now in my 40's. It's harder and harder to run in that cold for me. And blasting the furnace...such dry air....after about a day of that crap I have to put Neutrogena on my hands 2x a day or they start cracking. Face dries out and feels like a meat grinder unless I use moisturizer.

Yeah, unless there is some cool winter mischief to look at, I'd rather it be in the 70's and 80's like it was in December. First world issues. :lol:
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don
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Video update on wintry precip posted by NWS HGX, winter weather advisory may be needed for southwest counties tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQcpY7uRnA8
Texashawk
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It must have been snow
But it's over now
It must have been cold
But it’s too warm somehow
It must have been snow
But it's over now
From the moment we looked
For the Gulf cut off low

-Me, Friday evening
davidiowx
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Crazy to think the model output for several days, until yesterday, were showing winter precip for a lot of people. Then just like that, 3-4 days of models showing us winter precip goes away and here we are likely getting nothing outside of a miracle/surprise. They do happen and it's hard to predict, no doubt, but dang it was looking pretty positive for a while there!
Stratton20
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I think this disturbance might definitely surprise some people, light sleet just to the west of college station showing up
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:25 pm Crazy to think the model output for several days, until yesterday, were showing winter precip for a lot of people. Then just like that, 3-4 days of models showing us winter precip goes away and here we are likely getting nothing outside of a miracle/surprise. They do happen and it's hard to predict, no doubt, but dang it was looking pretty positive for a while there!
My confidence level was getting to be pretty high on Tuesday. Definitely came crashing down yesterday morning when I saw the overnight runs.
Stratton20
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Thats a-lot of moisture out west, mesoscale modes have it fizzing as it makes it way eastward , will see
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Cpv17
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I just got confirmation that it’s sleeting in Wharton.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 201756
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs continue to prevail across the area,
with conditions expected to improve to VFR at all terminals within
the next few hours. Elevated north winds continue behind the
passage of yesterday`s cold front, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots
expected through the remainder of the afternoon before tapering
off overnight. Scattered showers continue to approach the area
from the southwest today, though with coverage not expected to be
particularly widespread have maintained VCSH wording for the time
being. As showers continue this evening and temperatures approach
freezing, brief periods of sleet and/or wintry mix may be
possible. Despite this, accumulation of winter precipitation is
not anticipated.

Cady
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:35 pm I think this disturbance might definitely surprise some people, light sleet just to the west of college station showing up
We have sleet within 10 miles, snow within 60 mi. It ain't over 'til it's over! :lol: That line is headed this way

My main concern is verga...but hoping for column cooling...and we just might have flakes. Temps are low 30s along the line and 34° here.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:48 pm Thats a-lot of moisture out west, mesoscale modes have it fizzing as it makes it way eastward , will see
Come to Papa! 8-)
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DoctorMu
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Sleet near Caldwell. C'mon!
Stratton20
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DoctorMu got a nice sleet band just to the south of CS
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jasons2k
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Would love to know what's happening between Sealy and Bellville. That band is headed in this general direction. It's been a steady 43 degrees here all afternoon.
Kingwood36
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Sooooo everything is north of I-10 ..they said it would be south of I-10...goes to show ya..it does what it wants to do regardless of what models say
Kingwood36
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What happend to this being a South Texas event? Radar is dry as a bone down there
TexasBreeze
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That band over Harris is rain so far. Nothing mixed in! Miserable
jerryh421
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Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:09 pm What happend to this being a South Texas event? Radar is dry as a bone down there
Models show the radar filling in for South Texas overnight.
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don
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HGX added rain/sleet mix back into the forecast for tonight.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Widespread cloud cover and northerly winds behind the recent cold
frontal passage have combined to produce a relatively chilly
afternoon today across SE TX, with 3PM observations as low as the
upper 30s in the Brazos Valley and in the lower/mid 40s elsewhere.
Synoptically, an amplified midlevel trough axis continues to
approach from the west, enhancing a weak coastal trough feature
along the TX Coastal Bend and allowing for the development of
scattered stratiform rain across the area this afternoon. While
temperatures will dip to near or below freezing as this light
rainfall continues into the evening and overnight, the presence of
an elevated warm layer aloft will contribute to a messy period of
potentially mixed phase precipitation during this time.

While model soundings remain in fairly good agreement in depicting
robust saturation in the midlevels tonight as the main axis of
precipitation shifts to along and south of the I-10 corridor, a warm
level between approximately 1-2.5km aloft should prove sufficient to
inhibit any widespread accumulating winter precipitation as near-surface
temperatures approach the freezing level. That being said, there
remains a slight chance for a mix of sleet and/or freezing rain to
accompany rainfall through the early hours of tomorrow morning
depending on the exact depth of this warm layer. Chances for
freezing rain remain highest to the southwest of the Houston metro
where the elevated warm layer should be less robust, particularly
across Colorado, Wharton, and Jackson Counties. However, with land
surface temperatures likely to remain near or above freezing, any
accumulation of sleet and/or ice should be localized at most.
Across locations north of the I-10 corridor, precipitation will
be inhibited by the continued intrusion of drier air at low-levels
and thus sleet/freezing rain are largely not of concern.
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djmike
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Beaumont completely removed the wintry mix/sleet for tonight. Figures. Have fun whoever wins the loto! They did lower our temps though for tonight and tomorrow to 32 and now 27. If we could just get some of that rain…
Last edited by djmike on Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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