January 2022

[tireman4]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last dsmn minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

Give them time. I can say, over the years, that the HGX folks are more conservative on events. That being said, I would say they are being prudent. Now Steve can answer more to this.

[jerryh421]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last dsmn minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

They have it for my area - I live near Downtown.

[Iceresistance]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last d**n minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

Victoria has a lower chance of snow, & I don't think they expected this to show up in the forecast anytime soon

EDIT: Why do I always say 'snow'?

[srainhoutx]

WPC updated afternoon Winter Weather Discussion:

Gulf Coast to the Southern Mid Atlantic...
Day 3...
Previously noted cold front will continue to drop farther
southeast, settling into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday. By late Thursday, a positively-tilted upper trough
amplifying over the southern Plains and northern Mexico will
support precipitation developing in the shallow arctic air north
of the front. By Thursday evening, a wintry mix, including
freezing rain is possible across portions of South-Central Texas
before spreading farther south into South Texas and east along the
Texas Coast. This wintry mix is expected to continue to spread
farther east Friday morning, impacting portions of southern
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Latest WPC probabilities
show 30 percent or greater probabilities for accumulating ice as
far south as southern Louisiana on Friday.

On Friday, an amplifying northern stream wave moving across the
Ohio Valley, along with increasing low-to-mid level frontogenesis,
is expected to support precipitation developing well to the
northwest of the surface boundary. A strong arctic high centered
over the Northeast, ridging south through the Mid Atlantic, may
set the stage for another wintry mix, including accumulating ice,
across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia on Friday. WPC
probabilities indicate that accumulating ice is likely from
central South Carolina through the eastern Carolinas, with a
significant threat for accumulations of 0.10 inch or more centered
over southeastern North Carolina. Still a great deal of
uncertainty going forward, with significant model spread regarding
the strength and track of a low developing along the front, and
off of the Southeast to Mid Atlantic Coast late in the period.

Pereira

[Texashawk]

And yet none of the main meteorologists in the area appear the least concerned. Clearly they’re seeing something to dampen their concerns, especially since we’re within 2-3 days of the event.

[Kingwood36]

And yet none of the main meteorologists in the area appear the least concerned. Clearly they’re seeing something to dampen their concerns, especially since we’re within 2-3 days of the event.

They are even more conservative than HGX

[srainhoutx]

Updated WPC graphic

[Kingwood36]

David Paul just mentioned it on tv

[Stratton20]

The 18z GEFS is practically screaming “ Winter Storm!”

[txsnowmaker]

NWS with 30% chance of wintry mix in metro Houston Thursday night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ec6mBZMHDs

[srainhoutx]

TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.

[Texashawk]

TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.

Interesting. Who advises TXDoT? The regional WOs or the NWS at large? I just feel like this could really creep up on people, and after last February’s ice storms, a little transparency from all involved could go a long way, but I also get that they may be afraid people will panic over a low probability event, so… huh.

[don]

From HGX afternoon discussion.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Showers from Wednesday`s front will continue to push offshore
Thursday morning. Gusty northerly winds behind the front will
usher in colder temperatures. Combined with cloudy skies, high
temperatures will only get into the 40s on Thursday. Moisture
seems to linger in the wake of the front. With a few shortwaves at
mid- level and upper level divergence from an approaching
shortwave trough over W Texas/New Mexico, precipitation chances
return across most of the area by Thursday night. Given the amount
of dry and colder air filtering behind the front and a well-
saturated boundary layer, the main question will be precipitation
type. Most forecast soundings suggest a fully saturated profile in
the mid-level dendritic zone, but a warm nose between 900:850 mb,
suggests mixed precipitation across parts of the region.
Uncertainty remains high as any changeover to freezing
rain/snow/sleet will strongly depend on how fast the upper trough
moves eastward and how quickly sfc/road temperatures cool off
through the night. With that being said, areas south of Conroe may
see some mixed precipitation (slight chance for rain/freezing
rain/sleet), with better chances south of I-10. Still some
uncertainty between models, though, with low levels drying, out no
ice accumulation is expected. On the other hand, there is a
moderate to high confidence that it will be cold by Friday
morning. Breezy winds and cold temperatures will bring wind chills
in the 20s overnight.

By Friday morning, lingering coastal showers will bring some
rain/freezing rain.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Kingwood36]

"With that being said, areas south of Conroe may
see some mixed precipitation (slight chance for rain/freezing
rain/sleet), with better chances south of I-10"

Wow better chances south of I-10...wasn't expecting that

[Iceresistance]

TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.

Interesting. Who advises TXDoT? The regional WOs or the NWS at large? I just feel like this could really creep up on people, and after last February’s ice storms, a little transparency from all involved could go a long way, but I also get that they may be afraid people will panic over a low probability event, so… huh.

A few years ago, MODOT pre-treated Bridges due to snow in SW Missouri, there was too much uncertainty in the forecast.

[Stratton20]

Knowing my luck we probably wont get anything in college station lol

[srainhoutx]

TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.

Interesting. Who advises TXDoT? The regional WOs or the NWS at large? I just feel like this could really creep up on people, and after last February’s ice storms, a little transparency from all involved could go a long way, but I also get that they may be afraid people will panic over a low probability event, so… huh.

It's a coordinated decision from NWS, State, County and Local Emergency Management officials.

[Iceresistance]

Knowing my luck we probably wont get anything in college station lol

Your location says Katy, which is West of Houston, College Station is NW of Houston

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance I need to update that lol Im a junior at A&m college station

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance I need to update that lol Im a junior at A&m college station

Makes total sense since you're at Texas A&M in College Station, TX