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Temps will remain cold the next few days. Sunday begins a warming trend before the bottom possibly falls out about a week from now.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:58 am Temps will remain cold the next few days. Sunday begins a warming trend before the bottom possibly falls out about a week from now.

How far does the bottom look like it will fall out here?

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:25 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:58 am Temps will remain cold the next few days. Sunday begins a warming trend before the bottom possibly falls out about a week from now.

How far does the bottom look like it will fall out here?

I wouldn’t really say anything too extreme as of yet. Maybe a light freeze for now. Nothing we haven’t already seen. We’ll know a lot more by this weekend.

We might be on severe weather alert next week. Both Monday and Wednesday there could be a severe thunderstorm risk.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:48 am We might be on severe weather alert next week. Both Monday and Wednesday there could be a severe thunderstorm risk.

I have been noticing that too. It is a quick, but strong system with plenty of storms on both days.

Yep Models are being fairly consistent on a potent MCS moving through on Monday.Could be a heavy rain threat setting up.The storm on Wednesday looks to be a heavy rain and severe weather threat.Possibly followed by wintry precip.A lot will change,but next week is looking very active around here.

12Z EURO Showing a winter storm after the arctic front Wednesday.

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:02 pm Yep Models are being fairly consistent on a potent MCS moving through on Monday.Could be a heavy rain threat setting up.The storm on Wednesday looks to be a heavy rain and severe weather threat.Possibly followed by wintry precip.A lot will change,but next week is looking very active around here.

Wow i thought after seeing that graphic this board would perk up.

cperk well it is 8 days out tbh, but definitely anytime a model shows a winter storm setup inside of 10 days im sure this board will be active alot haha

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:58 pm cperk well it is 8 days out tbh, but definitely anytime a model shows a winter storm setup inside of 10 days im sure this board will be active alot haha

I'm counting on it.

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:54 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:02 pm Yep Models are being fairly consistent on a potent MCS moving through on Monday.Could be a heavy rain threat setting up.The storm on Wednesday looks to be a heavy rain and severe weather threat.Possibly followed by wintry precip.A lot will change,but next week is looking very active around here.

Wow i thought after seeing that graphic this board would perk up.

We need to get this inside 5 days and hope for even better trends and for the GFS to get onboard.

I think February will be a topsy turvy month, like 2021. Again, this in uniformed opinion.

XUS64 KHGX 262109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
309 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

An approaching shortwave over the Southern Rockies will continue
to push eastward across Northern Texas tonight, helping to
increase cloudiness for our area overnight. Temperatures will get
plenty of opportunity to cool before this cloud deck moves in and
traps heat, so overnight lows will cool down to the lower 30s
again for northeastern counties, mid 40s for the coast, and near
40 everywhere else.

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer with partly cloudy skies
and temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another leeside shortwave
coming off the Rockies on Thursday will push a cold front through
our region Late Thursday night. Some weak upper level forcing
will invigorate isolated to scattered showers across the area,
especially south of I-10 and west of I-45. Increased cloudiness
and moisture tomorrow night means temps will dip down into the
mid 40s for areas south of I-10 and in the lower 40s elsewhere.


&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

By Friday morning, the front should be through the area...or at
least, mostly slow. A frontal passage on the slower end of the
guidance envelope probably puts it right around the coast Friday
morning, so I do hold some low-end PoPs south of I-10 in the
morning for any lingering showers/drizzle, but we should see
largely fair weather and a clearing sky as the day presses on.

Of course, this sets us up for a relatively cool weekend with
Friday likely to be the coldest day as cold advection will be
strongest in the wake of the front. Friday night looks good and
chilly, with a light freeze for most everyone not on the immediate
coast or within the Houston heat island. At the far northern end
of our forecast area, we could definitely see the temp dip into
the upper 20s for a short bit right around dawn, but for most that
see a freeze, it looks like lows in the 30-32 degree range.

By Saturday, it appears that the deepest, coldest part of the low
pressure system will have pushed off to the east, but we`ll still
find ourselves in northwest flow to combat the full sun. I`ve got
temperatures a bit warmer on Saturday as we`re more than a month
past the solstice now, and full sun should at least help us out in
overcoming the cold start and any lingering cold air filtering in.

Sunday gives us the return of onshore flow as the surface high
drifts off to the east, and ridging aloft begins to stack over
Texas. This should put an end to any potential for freezing temps
overnight, and pump highs well into the 60s on Sunday, and the
return of 70-plus temps as early as Monday, but definitely by
Tuesday.

Of course, as our progressive pattern continues, don`t get used to
warm, sunny days. The next upper trough will push the
aforementioned ridging out of the way on Monday, so the fair and
warm weather Sunday may give way to warm and showery weather on
Monday. The model guidance has really come together on this
trough, so I`ve let the first bit of Likely PoPs sneak into the
forecast Monday at the coast and over the Gulf waters. This is
just a lead shortwave trough for a deeper upper low expected to
dig into Texas towards the middle of the week, so the rain chances
don`t really clear out Tuesday or Wednesday, and a front may push
its way into Southeast Texas as early as Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds are relaxing slightly early this afternoon, and
will continue to diminish slowly through the night. Moderate to
occasionally gusty northeast winds persist until Thursday night.
Then, another cold front is forecast to move into the coastal
waters with increasing north winds and building seas developing in
its wake by early Friday. Small Craft Advisories and/or Caution
flags will likely be required Friday. Moderate west to southwest
flow is expected to prevail late Saturday night, and carry into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 37 60 42 56 31 / 0 0 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 38 59 44 57 35 / 0 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 46 57 47 56 42 / 0 0 20 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs

Winter Storm Warning considered for SW Oklahoma, up to 6 inches of snow expected there now

Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are being picked up on radar.

Pow Ponder was talking about this for next week this afternoon.

Snowing outside, 33°F & falling.

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:09 pm 12Z EURO Showing a winter storm after the arctic front Wednesday.

Since Oklahoma is going to see Snow, we may start seeing a cooling down of the atmosphere further south due to the snowpack to our north which may help contribute to a possibility of winter precipitation in SE Texas. That’s what seemed to Happen in 2021. We may see this happen the first or second week in February

Pretty strong signal from the 00z GEFS members

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:31 pm Pretty strong signal from the 00z GEFS members

Well it’s getting there. I’d say about half of those members are showing something. When about 3/4 of them are onboard then I’ll start to get really interested.

0Z ICON showing the beginning of the storm. And 0Z CMC