TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[wxman57]

Here's an animation I made of the 12Z GFS positions. Isobars are plotted every 0.25 millibar to give better resolution. Valid times are at the bottom of the animation:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFSloop.gif

WOW! If you could do this more that would be GREAT! Do you know wxman if there is anywhere that is affordable to get a better resolution of the GFS and other models?

There's not an easy way to do it. We're running GARP, a program for displaying GEMPAK data on a Sun Solaris workstation. It won't run under windows.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive convection to the W of llc...

[srainhoutx]

18Z HWRF for what it's worth...

[TexasMetBlake]

HWRF looks out to lunch...(dinner and breakfast, too, for that matter.

[srainhoutx]

Sunset...amazing outflow tonight on the southern half...

[TexasMetBlake]

UP TO 50%

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN
NNNN

[biggerbyte]

It looks as if my thoughts from earlier have a very good chance of materializing. Everything still has that southward push, and it looks like the center could relocate further south. We may have to add the middle Texas coast to "pay attention" group. Still likely landfall is somewhere from the Houston area to the middle LA coast. Both landfall and strength are assumtions based on conditions, and model guidance. It will be Monday before we can start to pinpoint everything. Newbies, just the usual, get your house in order. We are all watching it.

[perk]

HWRF looks out to lunch...(dinner and breakfast, too, for that matter.

I could'nt agree more.

[srainhoutx]

00Z Best track is close to shore and pressures are down 2mb...

Code: Select all

AL, 05, 2010081600, , BEST, 0, 307N, 853W, 20, 1011, LO

[srainhoutx]

Nice picture at sunset...or bad depending on your perspective...

[Paul]

some models are showing a further south solution which is rather disconcerting considering it would give the LLC more time over water....0z NAM 0Z GFS and 0z CMC will be interesting....coming up....

[wxman57]

Hurricane models shifted farther east on the 00Z runs. Discouraging for us as far as rain potential.

[Rip76]

So Wx, basically it's going south now then 180 and back north...

Turning sprinklers on now

[Andrew]

So Wx, basically it's going south now then 180 and back north...

Turning sprinklers on now

I think it is a little too soon to discount any rain. We have to realize that if this storm goes 50 miles further south then intensity could change along with other aspects, sending it farther west. Its a tricky forecast with systems like these hugging the coast. Also if you look at the IR you will notice most of the convection west of the system. If that continues, we could get a lot more rain then expected. 00z models should be interesting with the new data.


EDIT to add that the convection to the west seems to be decreasing rapidly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

00z NAM:

[Paul]

NAM is more west than its ever been on the 0z run tonight...but its the NAM..

[sleetstorm]

Rectify me if I am wrong, but is that surface level low's center of circulation south, southwest, or south-southwest of Panama, Fl or no? Because it looked like it was on NEXRAD radar.

[Paul]

Rectify me if I am wrong, but is the center of circulation south, southwest, or south-southwest of Panama, Fl or no?

ssw is where I would but it...not well defined....offshore now so we watch and wait....

[sleetstorm]

I wonder if it will strengthen to T.D. status over night tonight/early tomorrow morning?

[Paul]

I wonder if it will strengthen to T.D. status over night tonight/early tomorrow morning?

I will go with over 80% it will....conditions are to good out there right now...aloft and at the surface...

[Paul]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

GFS rolling