TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[Paul]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Paul]

inland around central LA at 48hrs.....slight more east on this run

[Andrew]

inland around central LA at 48hrs.....slight more east on this run

Yea but it also dumps some rain over here too.

[srainhoutx]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 60
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Best track a bit further S and W...

Code: Select all

AL, 05, 2010081612,   , BEST,   0, 294N,  861W,  20, 1009, LO,

[MRG93415]

I am sorry to be dumb on this one but this thing is confusing...So does this mean we are going to get rain from this or did it go to far south and will go back into LA and we will get nothing?

[srainhoutx]

I am sorry to be dumb on this one but this thing is confusing...So does this mean we are going to get rain from this or did it go to far south and will go back into LA and we will get nothing?

I think it is probably too soon to say we will not get rain from this disturbance. The HPC has shifted the 5 day QPF total a bit W for what it's worth...

[srainhoutx]

Sunrise...

[srainhoutx]

High Res Vis Imagery suggests some banding features taking shape N of the LLC now. Perhaps this is beginning to wrap up in time for RECON this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

RECON will fly this afternoon...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 16 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.

[wxman57]

Recon won't be able to provide much additional info for a system that's embedded in a region with more surface obs than any other part of the entire Atlantic Basin. Obs confirm a weak surface low near 28.9N/86.2W. Winds around the low average around 15 kts, though there could be a few 20-25 kt winds in the heavier squalls that are being sheared to the southwest of the low center. Central pressure is about 1011.5mb, give or take a few tenths depending on how well the barometer of the nearby buoy has been calibrated.

They won't have to really ascend from Keesler, just fly SE and start the "X" pattern from Biloxi. Don't look for any big revelations from recon, though.

[desiredwxgd]

Recon won't be able to provide much additional info for a system that's embedded in a region with more surface obs than any other part of the entire Atlantic Basin. Obs confirm a weak surface low near 28.9N/86.2W. Winds around the low average around 15 kts, though there could be a few 20-25 kt winds in the heavier squalls that are being sheared to the southwest of the low center. Central pressure is about 1011.5mb, give or take a few tenths depending on how well the barometer of the nearby buoy has been calibrated.

They won't have to really ascend from Keesler, just fly SE and start the "X" pattern from Biloxi. Don't look for any big revelations from recon, though.

Just a tad further south than I had anticipated it would be at this time. Just a tad. My opinion.

[desiredwxgd]

Latest visible

[biggerbyte]

Is anyone noticing the activity in the nw gulf/sw LA that flares up and moves sw?

Td5s landfall and strength are still up in the air today. I would have thought we could pin it down by now. Still LA or Texas, but it is all about location.

[Rip76]

Yes, you mean the one that is going just south of us as to not provide any rain?

[rnmm]

Yes, you mean the one that is going just south of us as to not provide any rain?

UGH don't say no rain my yard really wants it!!

[biggerbyte]

I may end up being totally wrong about this. I'm going to go out on a limb and say a few things about what I see today. It looks like to me what the models are saying will happen with this system, and what is happening are far from being identical. There is nothing that tells me NOLA, or even central LA will get this. In fact, it looks like the LLC is now more south and west, south of LA where the convection is. The flow in the gulf is overall westward, wsw in the east, and wnw in the west. If I were a betting man, ATM, I'd put folks on the middle Texas coast, up to the Tx/La border, or maybe sw La on an iWatch alert.

[Rip76]

"The flow in the gulf is overall westward, wsw in the east, and wnw in the west. If I were a betting man, ATM, I'd put folks on the middle Texas coast, up to the Tx/La border, or maybe sw La on an iWatch alert."


I was watching that too.
It's just really hard to believe with that Wward flow that it just stops and turns N.

But, they are the pros and know much much more than i do.

[Andrew]

"The flow in the gulf is overall westward, wsw in the east, and wnw in the west. If I were a betting man, ATM, I'd put folks on the middle Texas coast, up to the Tx/La border, or maybe sw La on an iWatch alert."


I was watching that too.
It's just really hard to believe with that Wward flow that it just stops and turns N.

But, they are the pros and know much much more than i do.

That flow is going to break down and send it north with an incoming trof.

[rnmm]

"The flow in the gulf is overall westward, wsw in the east, and wnw in the west. If I were a betting man, ATM, I'd put folks on the middle Texas coast, up to the Tx/La border, or maybe sw La on an iWatch alert."


I was watching that too.
It's just really hard to believe with that Wward flow that it just stops and turns N.

But, they are the pros and know much much more than i do.

That flow is going to break down and send it north with an incoming trof.

Is that going to happen in time to send it into LA? Or are we looking at SE TX or TX/LA border?