February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Will we see a repeat of last year? Will it be frosty, warm or normal?
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mcheer23
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Hmm
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Cpv17
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mcheer23 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:06 pmHmm
That’s definitely interesting!
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don
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I like the 500mb trough orientation the models are showing next week.Could allow the arctic air to come straight down the plains.With energy digging to the west of us.
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Cpv17
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This is a pretty good setup for next week. Not quite where it needs to be yet but there’s still a lot of time to work on that:

Image
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Stratton20
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Thats a good setup for a winter storm ( almost) next week is going to be interesting
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:19 pm Thats a good setup for a winter storm ( almost) next week is going to be interesting
It needs to dig a little further south into Mexico and I’d like for there to be more ridging over Alaska.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 ah gotcha! But this definitely is a very good start
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Iceresistance
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The 18z GFS is just, YIKES! :shock:
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Stratton20
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Hard to see but I cant zoom in any closer but FWIW the 18z GEFS does have some members on board with a wintry storm next week, key word “just a few right now though) this is days 8-9
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Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:45 pm Hard to see but I cant zoom in any closer but FWIW the 18z GEFS does have some members on board with a wintry storm next week, key word “just a few right now though) this is days 8-9
You can put the region to (South-Central USA) so you can get a better visual of Oklahoma & Texas!
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Stratton20
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After figuring out how to zoom in, here is a better view of the 18z GEFS members
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Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:52 pm After figuring out how to zoom in, here is a better view of the 18z GEFS members
Yeah, Member #12 has a foot of snow in Oklahoma & Texas from a single storm.
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Cpv17
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Growing confidence for a pretty strong front to move through here towards the end of next week. Still don’t really like what I see from the models yet. Probably need a better snowpack up north. Too much modification.
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Kingwood36
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Always the case down here..air modifies to quick here
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Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:24 pm Always the case down here..air modifies to quick here
Yeah especially when there’s not much of a snowpack over the central plain states.
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Stratton20
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I mean technically cant you still get wintry precipitation or a storm even with modified arctic air?
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:04 pm I mean technically cant you still get wintry precipitation or a storm even with modified arctic air?
Yes but it makes it a lot harder.
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Stratton20
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00z CMC shows a potential winter storm setup about 8 days from now fwiw
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Cpv17
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Well well well, the models have just gotten really interesting.
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