February 2022

[walsean1]

It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

[walsean1]

It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

[mcheer23]

Models dropped what?

[Stratton20]

12z GFS shows a winter storm in the making fwiw

[don]

Yep 12Z GFS getting onboard for a winter storm.Keep in mind the GFS hasn't really shown a winter storm for the state until now.Good trend,lets see if it continues.

[Stratton20]

Don fwiw the 12z ICON has also trended towards a winter storm

[mcheer23]

Closer look at the ICON, not a fan of the model..

[don]

GEFS ensemble blend

[Cpv17]

It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

I wouldn’t say it was a once in a lifetime event. I’m not even sure it would crack the top 5 coldest events in southeast TX. Heck I’m pretty sure 1983 and 1989 both were colder and in 1930 Houston recorded it’s lowest temp ever of 5°F. And in between the 30’s and 80’s there were several really cold events here. And last year sure didn’t beat out 1899 and possibly not 1895 either. I would say something like last year would happen about 3 or 4 times in an average lifespan down here. Maybe once every 20-30 years.

[Iceresistance]

Okay, the 12z GFS is a REALLY BIG OOF for Southern Texas!

[TexasBreeze]

Picking up on ice or snow cover in that pic. Overall the model has a really cold look with more shots later in the run.

[walsean1]

This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

I wouldn’t say it was a once in a lifetime event. I’m not even sure it would crack the top 5 coldest events in southeast TX. Heck I’m pretty sure 1983 and 1989 both were colder and in 1930 Houston recorded it’s lowest temp ever of 5°F. And in between the 30’s and 80’s there were several really cold events here. And last year sure didn’t beat out 1899 and possibly not 1895 either. I would say something like last year would happen about 3 or 4 times in an average lifespan down here. Maybe once every 20-30 years.

I originally from Kansas City where winter storms are a regular occurrence and no the temperatures didn’t beat the records set back then but I never saw snow on the ground and streets stick around since I been in Houston. That almost never happens but I think since the climate has changed in recent years maybe this will happen more often

[don]

The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

I wouldn’t say it was a once in a lifetime event. I’m not even sure it would crack the top 5 coldest events in southeast TX. Heck I’m pretty sure 1983 and 1989 both were colder and in 1930 Houston recorded it’s lowest temp ever of 5°F. And in between the 30’s and 80’s there were several really cold events here. And last year sure didn’t beat out 1899 and possibly not 1895 either. I would say something like last year would happen about 3 or 4 times in an average lifespan down here. Maybe once every 20-30 years.

I originally from Kansas City where winter storms are a regular occurrence and no the temperatures didn’t beat the records set back then but I never saw snow on the ground and streets stick around since I been in Houston. That almost never happens but I think since the climate has changed in recent years maybe this will happen more often

Ive seen snow on the ground here in Houston at least 5 times since 2004(not including ice storms)...There was more snow accumulation in the Christmas 2004 snow storm December 2009 snow storm and the December 2017 snow event than last years storm.(especially for the southern half of the area)

[Stratton20]

FWIW the 12z Euro does show a weak disturbance behind the main storm system moving in saturday that could bring some parts of SE Texas a chance for light snow

[Cpv17]

FWIW the 12z Euro does show a weak disturbance behind the main storm system moving in saturday that could bring some parts of SE Texas a chance for light snow

The 12z EPS looks much better than the op.

[Kingwood36]

I wouldn't get excited over anything till atleast Monday

[Cpv17]

I wouldn't get excited over anything till atleast Monday

The cold is coming. That much we do know. This map is absolutely gorgeous!

Here we go:

[Kingwood36]

No doubt about the cold..it's the precip still to be determined

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep! This is gonna be an interesting pattern ahead!

[don]

Yep the cold is definitely coming, its the winter storm that's the question right now.Always a good sign when you see Alaska above normal.