February 2022

[walsean1]

walsean1 im furter up north in college station

I am in the NW Spring m/Tomball/HWY 99 area which is about an hour away from your location.

[Stratton20]

walsean1 nice! It could be very close for NW Counties, just depends on where that transition line is, 39 degrees here and dropping

[djmike]

Currently 57 in Beaumont and dropping. Was a scheduled high of 76 originally today and tomorrow. I think its safe to say not gonna happen. Still wont be cold cold and absolutely nothing we haven’t had already, but think its more amazing how this front is defying all odds on strength and movement compared to what models said.

[djmike]

NWS LC just lowered my high again for today. Was 76. Now a high of 65 for today. Wonder if Beaumont will even reach that or if more changes will happen from NWS.

[djmike]

Now a high of 56 forecasted for Beaumont today. 20 degrees difference from what they were saying just 24 hrs ago.

[don]

HGX still has temps too high for the rest of the week.Expect the forecast highs and lows to lower today.

[Stratton20]

Just in 12z WRF and WRF2 models, I would not be surprised to see some sort of advisory issued later today for some of SE Texas

[Cromagnum]

Coldest my local forecast shows is 44 on Friday morning. It's just going to be rainy.

[Kingwood36]

Just another average cold front nothing really special about it

[Stratton20]

Lol this is not even close to an average front, I went from 82 to 38 in less than 24 hours , thats anything but average especially for late february

[Kingwood36]

Lol this is not even close to an average front, I went from 82 to 38 in less than 24 hours , thats anything but average especially for late february

High's in 50s is average cold front lol

[TexasBreeze]

It is in the low to mid 50s still at my place after it went through about 11 last night. I would call that a no big deal front for February so far. It is supposed to get reinforced though later Thursday so we will see.

[mcheer23]

Lol this is not even close to an average front, I went from 82 to 38 in less than 24 hours , thats anything but average especially for late february

High's in 50s is average cold front lol

Temps will be slowly falling all day...low to mid 40s by late afternoon.

[Cpv17]

Lol this is not even close to an average front, I went from 82 to 38 in less than 24 hours , thats anything but average especially for late february

High's in 50s is average cold front lol

Temps will be slowly falling all day...low to mid 40s by late afternoon.

Exactly. I figured most people would know that but apparently not. Will even be in the 30’s for the western third of the viewing area by mid to late afternoon.

[Stratton20]

Im at 37 and still falling, this is far from a “average front”...

[Cpv17]

It is in the low to mid 50s still at my place after it went through about 11 last night. I would call that a no big deal front for February so far. It is supposed to get reinforced though later Thursday so we will see.

Have you been paying attention to what we’ve been posting or just listening to the NWS who have been way wrong about this front from the get go?

[Cpv17]

Lol this is not even close to an average front, I went from 82 to 38 in less than 24 hours , thats anything but average especially for late february

High's in 50s is average cold front lol

You live in the central/eastern part of the viewing area. Western areas will be much colder for this particular front. It’ll get colder where you are but it’ll take a while longer. Areas west of you are 10-15 degrees colder. Big temp gradient from west to east across the area like I recently explained in a previous post.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

.AVIATION...

For the 23/12Z TAFs...slow moving cold front is almost near the coast
with just LBX and GLS left for its passage. This should happen over
the next 1-3 hours. N winds behind the front will be 10-15 knots and
occasionally gusty at some TAF sites. Ceilings are MVFR behind the
front and still IFR/LIFR ahead of the front. Expecting MVFR ceilings
to prevail most sites for most of the day then become IFR/LIFR this
evening and overnight. Might have to deal with some fog and SHRA too.
Little improvement is expected tomorrow morning (24/12Z-24/18Z). 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Cold front is gradually working its way toward the coast early this
morning. At 3 AM, the boundary was about to enter the coastal
counties where temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Behind the front, cooler temperatures prevail with readings in a
mid/upper 40s to mid/upper 50s range. Models are in pretty decent
agreement in bringing the front off the coast and into the coastal
waters this morning. Have adjusted temperatures (both lows and
highs) over the next two days a little cooler, and have kept period
of rain in the forecast too as the southwest flow aloft persists and
and 850mb front remains to our west. We`ll need to keep cloudy skies
and some rain chances in the forecast through Thursday night with
most amounts/totals remaining on the light side.

Gradually falling temperatures can be expected today behind the
front with highs likely occurring early this morning. By sunset,
anticipating temperatures to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s
well inland to the mid/upper 50s coast. Lows tonight will bottom out
in the mid/upper 30s inland to the low/mid 50s coast. Not much
warming is anticipated on Thursday, and expecting highs to range
from the upper 40s to around 50 inland to the upper 50s coast.
Thursday night should be a little cooler with lows in the low/mid
30s well inland to the mid/upper 40s coast.

42

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

The latest cold front will continue to push offshore by Friday
morning, but some lingering moisture and showers are possible for
southern and central counties. These rain chances will taper off
throughout the day until the next shortwave on Saturday. By
Saturday, an inverted surface trough along the Lower TX coast will
migrate north towards Southeast Texas and bring some isolated to
scattered showers throughout the day and a few thunderstorms in
the afternoon. This feature will get swept up in an approaching
mid level shortwave as another cold front pushes through our area
late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. This frontal boundary
will be near the coast by Sunday morning, but will quickly push
offshore as a high pressure over the Southern Central Plains
pushes southeast and envelops our area. This high pressure doesn`t
push east until Tuesday morning when onshore flow resumes.

Regarding temperatures, we`ll see daytime highs gradually climb
this weekend and into early next week. Highs on Friday should
reach the upper 40s to low 50s. By Monday, highs will reach the
mid 60s. When onshore flow resumes Tuesday, highs will quickly
climb to the 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows are a
little more tricky since much depends on cloud coverage and
warm/cold air advection from prevailing wind patterns. Friday and
Saturday night lows will dip into the 40s as mostly cloudy skies
trap heat overnight. As high pressure clears out skies on Sunday
night, surface temperatures will cool more effectively and areas
north of I-10 and outside of the Houston-Metro area will reach the
30s while temps reach the 40s elsewhere. When onshore flow
resumes early next week and cloud cover begins to increase again,
overnight lows reach the upper 40s to low 50s by Tuesday night.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Foggy and moist conditions near the coast and along the ship
channel expected through the early morning hours until a weak cold
front pushes through our coastal waters by mid morning and washes
out this fog. Some SCEC winds should build in behind this front,
but decrease again this evening. However as this line stalls
offshore and perhaps moves back north, sea fog may be possible
Wednesday night and Thursday. Looking further into the future, a
second stronger cold front will move across the waters on Thursday
evening ending the sea fog threat and ushers in a strong
northerly wind and scattered showers. Advisory flags will most
likely be needed behind the front with gusts increasing to near
Gale criteria.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 35 48 35 46 / 40 40 50 50 20
Houston (IAH) 58 45 57 42 51 / 40 40 40 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 64 54 58 49 55 / 40 30 40 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

34 here with precipitation starting to breakout

[mcheer23]

34 here with precipitation starting to breakout

Wouldn't be surprised to see a WWA issued for your area