February 2022

[jasons2k]

NWS sure keeps trimming my rain chances for tomorrow night. Was 70%….60%….now 50%. Grrrrrr.

[Cpv17]

NWS sure keeps trimming my rain chances for tomorrow night. Was 70%….60%….now 50%. Grrrrrr.

I wouldn’t expect much. Most of it should be north of our area. Consider yourself lucky if you can get a quarter inch.

[Stratton20]

I think we need to turn our attention to early/late next week, models have veen consistent with developing a strong storm system associated with a dip in the jet stream digging out west , its too far out to get specific on details, but definitely worth monitoring, the position of the SE Ridge will be important, if the ridge is too close to us then this potential storm system could get shunted off to the Northeast much sooner, but if the ridge if a little further away then this would allow the storm system to dig further east before ejecting off to the NE

[don]

Yep i agree,late next week looks to be yet another winter storm setup for Texas.Like you mentioned, we would need the SE ridge to be weaker or further east to get any wintry precip down here though.Stay tuned as changes are likely.

[mcheer23]

[DoctorMu]

Yep i agree,late next week looks to be yet another winter storm setup for Texas.Like you mentioned, we would need the SE ridge to be weaker or further east to get any wintry precip down here though.Stay tuned as changes are likely.

Big NW/SE Hwy 1*5 gradient next week.

60% chance of rain this Wed. night. My beds are wet enough, but they are also dead enough because of cold and wind dessication.

We should have a light frost Friday and Saturday in my IMBY. Nada likely down near HOU.

Another significant warm-up before the front next week and the likely last chance for wintry mischief. We could get a frost or two by Spring Break, as is typical in this area of Texas.

Then it will be prepping for and dealing with Howling Wind and Severe Season!

[DoctorMu]

Yep.

Looking like Hwy 21 and Hwy 1*5 Maginot lines are setting up next week.

[don]

One thing that may be different with this system compared to the storm earlier this month.Is the large snowpack that will be in the plains and Rockies.That could potentially allow the airmass to not modify as much this time.

[DoctorMu]

One thing that may be different with this system compared to the storm earlier this month.Is the large snowpack that will be in the plains and Rockies.That could potentially allow the airmass to not modify as much this time.

Looks like a trough and front rather than a cold core cutoff low. That's what we would need for major action. More overrunning, but there could always be a surprise like Saturday.

[Cpv17]

SE ridge really needs to not poke its head into southeast TX!

[Stratton20]

Im really liking what im seeing in the EPS and GEFS ensembles, they are suggesting we may stay below normal temps all the way into the first week of march

[Kingwood36]

Eh, I'm over the winter storms...it's always north of hwy 105 anyway..nobody will get anything but Stratton lol he has had enough this winter already

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 we got ICE from the last winter storm, that is nothing fun lol, did not make for a fun time and hey this storm on the model is 9 days out, expect changes

[Cromagnum]

I fully expect an early green up this year. And then a late March worthless frost to kill everything.

[DoctorMu]

I fully expect an early green up this year. And then a late March worthless frost to kill everything.

Up in CLL IMBY a couple of bushes and some roses are dead, but so are the weeds (for now). Texas weather giveth and taketh away!

[don]

12z GFS sure went crazy LOL.

[mcheer23]

12z GFS sure went crazy LOL.

I guess that's 2 runs in a row

[Stratton20]

12z GFS, looking beyond next week’s potential storm system, this is something that Pow Ponder mentioned in his video update yesterday, it appears we are going to be entering a sustained period of below normal temps as seen by the latest GFS run, winter is far from over, I know this is far out, but its pattern recognition

[mcheer23]

FWIW, CMC does show frozen precip next Thursday morning

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS with some decent support for a winter storm setup next week fwiw