Re: February 2022
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:39 am
Not far enough tho for my taste
I don’t really care if we get wintry precipitation or not. I just want some cold temps. Wintry precipitation would just be a bonus.
I don’t really care if we get wintry precipitation or not. I just want some cold temps. Wintry precipitation would just be a bonus.
Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.
Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.
Back to where we were a few days ago.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:36 am 06z NAM is colder and has wintry precipitation farther south fwiw
Massive overrun. Euro has been seeing this for awhile.don wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:51 am From Wxman57
Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.
Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.
Geez I sure hope not. It just hit 80 here. The concrete is sweating. I wish the return flow would stick around but Mother Nature obviously has other plans. I expect the NWS to lower their numbers soon. The colder and faster trend on the meso models is for real.
Concrete is sweating here at my job too in Rosenberg. I hate when that happens. It makes such a mess everywhere. Like a pig slop.jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:02 pmGeez I sure hope not. It just hit 80 here. The concrete is sweating. I wish the return flow would stick around but Mother Nature obviously has other plans. I expect the NWS to lower their numbers soon. The colder and faster trend on the meso models is for real.