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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:31 am 12z CMC putting us in the Ice Box next week, also shows a winter storm forming fwiw🥶🥶

Yup both 00Z EURO and 12z CMC suggest a winter storm may form next week with gnarly ice accumulations.
Good thing it's just a model run. Take these with a grain of salt for right now.

12z EURO

That is a crazy run by the euro!

Well well well....

The 18z GFS FWIW has trended toward the Euro and CMC solutions with a winter storm in Texas, obviously where this will occur remains to be seen but with all 3 major global models on board, its very interesting

Not a good run by the 0z Euro and 6z GFS if you want winter weather. Hopefully they’ll come back around. We really need this low to dig deeper into Mexico and deepen a lot before ejecting or else Texas might not get much of anything.

CPV17 well some of the GEFS members say otherwise, im not putting much stock into the global models right now until i see some consistency , the mesocale models will also be important when they get into range of this storm system

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:52 am CPV17 well some of the GEFS members say otherwise, im not putting much stock into the global models right now until i see some consistency , the mesocale models will also be important when they get into range of this storm system

I wouldn’t bank on anything happening.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:06 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:52 am CPV17 well some of the GEFS members say otherwise, im not putting much stock into the global models right now until i see some consistency , the mesocale models will also be important when they get into range of this storm system

I wouldn’t bank on anything happening.

I agree. We'll see how it plays out, as of now the Houston area is getting winter precip on about 6 of the 30 GEFS members.

GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:42 am GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

Well that’s a step in the right direction at least.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:20 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:42 am GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

Well that’s a step in the right direction at least.

And the EURO is a step back.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:20 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:42 am GEFS support doubled, it now has about 12 members (of 30) showing winter precip.

Well that’s a step in the right direction at least.

And the EURO is a step back.

Yep. It’s really cold though. And cold for several days from the looks of it. Definitely cold enough for us to a cash in if we can get a shortwave or something coming through. It’s not Feb 21 cold but definitely still really cold.

So it looks like our area of SETX will be under freezing temps for 2 or 3 days? Possibly ice or snow? But not like last February.

I've removed my frost cloths from the plants from last week. I shouldn't pack those away it sounds like. But I'm good with some wintry weather and freezing temps!

sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:41 pm So it looks like our area of SETX will be under freezing temps for 2 or 3 days? Possibly ice or snow? But not like last February.

If the skies clear like the models are now showing, high temps would likely be in the upper 30's to low 40s. Low temps in the low to mid 20's. We're still a week away so it'll likely change.

Thanks, Mccheer! I enjoy cold weather. It gets so hot here for so long, that I can work with the cold. Even if the power goes out.

Gunna be pretty cold.

Models are going to continue to struggle with wintry precip chances, but the one good thing is that all of the modes are showing we will have some very cold temps, we just need a disturbance to come through

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:10 pm Models are going to continue to struggle with wintry precip chances, but the one good thing is that all of the modes are showing we will have some very cold temps, we just need a disturbance to come through

Completely agree. Mesoscale models will do a much better job picking up on that when they get within range.

CPV17 yup they will give us a better idea pf what is going to happen, but seeing that the GEFS has doubled in support of a “winter storm” im probably going to be watching the ensembles more right now, will say though the CMC model has been the only model to continuously show some wintry precip for SE Texas, hasnt flipped flopped