To Say This Season Is A Bust Is........

[Ptarmigan]

Foolish, dangerous, and irresponsible. A season is only declared a bust when it is over. We are still in the middle of the season. This type of thinking leads to complacency and people let their guard down. They think this season is not going to be active, which means we should be okay. Active or not or early or late starting, we can have really devastating seasons. Case in point, 1961, 1998, and 2004. All were late starters that were devastating and deadly. A less active season like 1900 and 1992, which produced the Great Galveston Hurricane and Andrew. Both were El Nino years. People would of written those seasons off. Guess what, if a massive hurricanes comes barreling towards to your area, people are not prepared, they are going to be in a pain of their life.

[TexasMetBlake]

Are you serious right now? What about the ones who proclaim 23 storms this season? That's what's dangerous and irresponsible. All that does is drive commodity prices higher and leads to a deeper distrust in government officials and their warnings. There is a reputation at stake here. What good does it do to try and forecast anomalies? Your assuming, Ptarmigan, that everybody visits the KHOU board for their hurricane information. This is a small board amongst ourselves. People have not been caught off guard by a hurricane since the 1943 'surprise' hurricane and that was only due to the information blackout of WWII. After Andrew and even more so Katrina, the weather has become a very intricate and important part of ratings at local affiliates.

Let's just say that NOAA had the ability to give an exact number of storms and hurricanes in a year. Whether they forecasted 5 storms or 25 storms, a vast majority of the public would procrastinate because "bad things don't happen here." In the event of a major storm, there would still be a last minute rush on gasoline and groceries. There would still be massive evacuations. There would still be a sense of urgency and panic amongst locals. Nothing would change unless you could give the time and day a hurricane was going to hit a particular stretch of coast. Even then, people would put it off until the waters started rising and the winds got high. With a state of Depression waiting in the shadows and the world economy of the verge of absolute liquidation, money is tight and running out and "stocking up" for a bad hurricane season just is not priority to many families. I'd be willing to bet that your family or yourself has not made the first move in preparing for this apocalyptic season.

It is clear, thus far, that this summer is the season of the ULL. We've had countless very strong invests march into the Caribbean and GOM and were decapitated by shear and choked by dry air. You can't ignore the fact that Bonnie, Colin and TD 5 all suffered the same fate. Not to mention that swirl in the Atlantic, 93L, that had a 70% chance of developing but just never could. The center was exposed the whole time. Why? Shear. We are going into mid August and these storms don't have a prayer. You can't ignore that. Will there be major hurricanes this year? Probably. Could some of them destroy a city? Sure. But to get to 23 storms by the end of November is going to be one heck of a task.

What kind of prediction is 14-23 anyway? That's like throwing a rock into the ocean and somebody yelling, 'DON'T MISS.' Sure, it could hit a floating piece of garbage, but highly unlikely. Of the last 10 years, 3 seasons had less than 14 storms. The percentage would surely shrink if we counted the mid 90's. It just tickles me that everybody thinks that we're all so unprepared and have no cotton-pickin' clue what's going on. People are aware....even more so with the oil spill. So please, enough with the haphazard accusations.

[desiredwxgd]

I’ve said it once, I’ve said it twice and I’ll say it again. It’s a damned if you do and a damned if you don’t situation. If predictions were not made and there was a horrible season or even just one bad storm then someone, somewhere in some cosmos would take a hit; likewise, when there are predictions and no place is affected the above is still the same. It’s also important to drive home the fact to those who might not follow that an active season DOES NOT mean a storm is going to make a land fall on our coast(s).

More importantly I do think that people are more aware of possible outcomes from any storm after the 2005 season. However, as we all know complacency is a well known fact not just along the Gulf Coast but I would venture in all humans. Unfortunately the only way to avoid (and even with warnings of pending disaster it is still hard to do) a situation of complete chaos is to side with caution and STRESS the importance of being prepared; and, often times the only way one can do that is to continue to drive home a monster season. And even then it is still a long shot that people will listen. You have to remember, people like us (weather geeks for lack of better words ) are few and far between and that the average every day person has a mind set of out of sight out of mind.

My two cents.

[kellybell4770]

imo, if you live on the Gulf Coast you should be prepared, period. A hurricane can hit anytime (well, within hurricane season for the most part), anywhere - even the most respected, knowledgable met can only make an educated guess - we get great information here on this website and I am very grateful for it - personally I don't give much merrit to the "hurricane season predictions" because they are just that - predictions. It''s not a guarantee. Besides all that it only takes one hurricane to devestate a city. I think Ptarmigan made a wise point - not a "haphazard accusation" - and honestly, I haven't seen any prices of hurricane supplies go up or down depending on the number of hurricanes the NHC predicts. Bottom line is to use common sense every opportunity you get

[TexasMetBlake]

imo, if you live on the Gulf Coast you should be prepared, period. A hurricane can hit anytime (well, within hurricane season for the most part), anywhere - even the most respected, knowledgable met can only make an educated guess - we get great information here on this website and I am very grateful for it - personally I don't give much merrit to the "hurricane season predictions" because they are just that - predictions. It''s not a guarantee. Besides all that it only takes one hurricane to devestate a city. I think Ptarmigan made a wise point - not a "haphazard accusation" - and honestly, I haven't seen any prices of hurricane supplies go up or down depending on the number of hurricanes the NHC predicts. Bottom line is to use common sense every opportunity you get

Not hurricane supplies, but oil prices and other commodities that affect everybody...even insurance rates. This is just my opinion, but season forecasts really do nobody any good. It only takes one Katrina for the season to be memorable. Not 30 storms.

[kellybell4770]

imo, if you live on the Gulf Coast you should be prepared, period. A hurricane can hit anytime (well, within hurricane season for the most part), anywhere - even the most respected, knowledgable met can only make an educated guess - we get great information here on this website and I am very grateful for it - personally I don't give much merrit to the "hurricane season predictions" because they are just that - predictions. It''s not a guarantee. Besides all that it only takes one hurricane to devestate a city. I think Ptarmigan made a wise point - not a "haphazard accusation" - and honestly, I haven't seen any prices of hurricane supplies go up or down depending on the number of hurricanes the NHC predicts. Bottom line is to use common sense every opportunity you get

Not hurricane supplies, but oil prices and other commodities that affect everybody...even insurance rates. This is just my opinion, but season forecasts really do nobody any good. It only takes one Katrina for the season to be memorable. Not 30 storms.

agreed