March 2022

[jasons2k]

NWS now says 32 Friday night and 33 Saturday night here. That’s up a tick. We’ll see…

[DoctorMu]

NWS now says 32 Friday night and 33 Saturday night here. That’s up a tick. We’ll see…

30°F on Friday night for us, progged.

The good news is more sun is expected tomorrow afternoon through next Wednesday!

[DoctorMu]

To sum up Horticulture and Lawn Care in the Brazos Valley:

https://youtu.be/KyR7XB0VBPM


April 20th and October 2nd see emerald green laws, bushes, trees. The rest of the year...

https://youtu.be/2zVMV7S3Nf4

[Cromagnum]

Maybe a 1/10 inch of rain here. I'll take it over nothing just to get my fresh fertilizer partially dissolved and in the ground.

[jasons2k]

To sum up Horticulture and Lawn Care in the Brazos Valley:

https://youtu.be/KyR7XB0VBPM


April 20th and October 2nd see emerald green laws, bushes, trees. The rest of the year...

https://youtu.be/2zVMV7S3Nf4

That’s great! My wife walked over and said “what are you watching?!?!”

We got .63” here. Not bad. It was enough to cancel tonight’s baseball game. OK with me - I’m sitting by the fire!

[DoctorMu]

To sum up Horticulture and Lawn Care in the Brazos Valley:

https://youtu.be/KyR7XB0VBPM


April 20th and October 2nd see emerald green laws, bushes, trees. The rest of the year...

https://youtu.be/2zVMV7S3Nf4

That’s great! My wife walked over and said “what are you watching?!?!”

We got .63” here. Not bad. It was enough to cancel tonight’s baseball game. OK with me - I’m sitting by the fire!

Nice! I'm glad to hear you got some rain. May the Spring and Summer bring you no donut holes! We got around half an inch.

[DoctorMu]

Brilliant sunshine. High of 60°F. Light northerly breeze in CLL. My perfect day!

[Cromagnum]

Suppose to be no chance of rain today, and yet I'm caught in a hailstorm in Lake Jackson right now.

[jasons2k]

Suppose to be no chance of rain today, and yet I'm caught in a hailstorm in Lake Jackson right now.

I feel your pain. That’s actually happened to me before too.

[tireman4]

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A few showers/thunderstorms linger offshore and along the coast,
with one of these lingering storms expected to impact LBX/GLS over
the next 30-60 minutes. Otherwise, the clearing trend should
continue with VFR conditions expected to prevail during the
duration of the TAF period. Winds remain out of the NE at around
10 knots, and should gradually diminish before becoming light and
variable overnight.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 434 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Much more pleasant day on tap with cold front in the Gulf pushing
southward and high pressure building into the Hill Country and then
eastward tonight and Thursday. Lower clouds over the southeastern
half of the area this morning will be dissipating as the drier air
pushes in and temperature climb into the lower to mid 60s. High
clouds will spread over the area this morning and then be thinning
this afternoon with mostly clear to clear skies overnight. This dry
air and clear skies tonight should set the stage a quick fall in
temperatures this evening then bottoming out in the mid 30s to lower
40s inland...and mid 40s downtown.

Thursday high pressure to the northeast and warm front moving back
north into the area but the moisture south of the warm front isn`t
very rich with limited PW of 1-1.15" with 850 flow SW...most of the
clouds with the warm front should be over the coastal waters and
then during the afternoon over the southern areas. Rain chances
start to increase Thursday evening/early Friday morning near College
Station and in the coastal waters. Possibly a sea fog threat near
Galveston/Bolivar areas early Friday morning. A much stronger cold
front will be on the way and winds over the area Thursday night a
mixed bag of light winds and possibly weak prefrontal troughing. The
cold front should move into the area Friday around and after
sunrise.

45


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Friday will be a day of change. An upper level low will be digging
down into the Southern Plains during the day on Friday with the
associated cold front sweeping through Southeast Texas. The
surface front will arrive first bringing a northerly wind shift
through the morning hours, however the 850mb front will be lagging
behind and likely not cross the area until Friday afternoon/evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the FROPA, but the
majority of the precipitation will be to the east as the system
matures. Expect falling temperatures to occur through the day on
Friday with the cold front`s passage. By noon, temperatures will
be in the low 60s along the coast up through Houston Metro and
temperatures in the 50s for areas north of I-10 and west of I-45.
By sunset, temperatures will range from the 30s up north to the
40s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s
north of Huntsville and below freezing for most of the region
besides the coast and Houston Metro area where temperatures bottom
out in the mid 30s. There will be a strong LLJ (40 to 50+ kts at
925mb) setting up behind the FROPA, so windy conditions are likely
Friday into Saturday with Wind Advisories possible, especially
along the coast. The combo between cold temperatures and gusty
winds will lead to a brisk night Friday night with wind chills
dropping into the 20s area wide.

The chilly conditions will persist through Saturday as high
pressure builds over Texas bringing light winds and clear skies
with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The high pressure slides
eastward on Sunday bringing a return to southerly flow for coastal
Texas bringing temperatures up into the mid 60s. Meanwhile, a weak
upper level trough will be moving through the Desert Southwest.
This disturbance moves across the Red River Valley on Monday
increasing the WAA across east Texas bringing temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s. A very weak cold front will pass through
East Texas Monday night bringing precipitation, but not expecting
much, if any, drop in temperatures behind the front. High pressure
is expected to build behind the exiting low keeping our region
warm and dry through Wednesday.

Fowler


.MARINE...

While the wave heights have begun to decrease, moderate northerly
winds of 20 to 25kts will persist through the morning, so have
extended the SCA and SCEC through 10am. Conditions will then
slowly improve through the rest of the day. The flow turns
northeasterly tonight, then east-southeasterly on Thursday. A
cold front will move through the coastal waters on Friday that
will bring strong offshore flow Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. Wind speeds of 25 to 35kts and gusts to 45kts will be
possible bringing rough bay waters and wave heights to 9 to 12ft
in the offshore waters. A Gale Watch may be issued later today or
tomorrow for this time period. The strong offshore winds will also
bring low tides of 1 to 2 feet below MLLW Friday night, so low
water advisories will also likely be issued. Winds will lower
through Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead with
light easterly to southeasterly winds expected on Sunday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 40 74 48 50 29 / 0 0 10 60 10
Houston (IAH) 42 73 51 61 34 / 0 0 10 70 20
Galveston (GLS) 54 67 59 66 40 / 0 0 10 70 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Fowler

[jasons2k]

At mi casa:

Fri Night NWS: 33
Fri Night TWC App: 30

Sat Night NWS: 33
Sat Night TWC App: 33

We’ll see…

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff. My oak trees are already blooming - I hope the new buds don’t freeze. The wind is gonna suck big time!!

Strong late season cold front will move across TX on Friday.

Wind Advisory is in effect from noon Friday to noon Saturday for all counties.

Gale warnings and watches are up for the coastal waters and bays.

Cold arctic air mass is moving southward through the plains this morning and will enter into N TX today and then rush off the TX coast on Friday. Cold front is currently located from the southern TX panhandle into NC OK and will move southward toward DFW this evening and then enter SE TX around 600-900am on Friday, metro Houston 10am-noon and the coast noon-200pm. Frontal timing may speed up a bit as has been the case several times this winter. Moisture will begin to increase later this afternoon and into tonight as a surface warm front over the NW Gulf begins to lift northward toward the coast. This moisture will push inland overnight and expect areas of fog and drizzle to develop. An upper level system over the SW US will swing across TX on Friday and lift from this feature will help to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front on Friday.

Very strong cold air advection will onset Friday afternoon and evening driving temperatures from the 70’s ahead of the front into the 30’s by early evening. Pressure gradient will become increasing tight Friday afternoon and evening with very strong NNW/N flow over the region. 925mb winds of 50-55kts will mix down some of the momentum to the surface with sustained speeds of 25-35mph and frequent gusts of 40-45mph. Would not be surprised to see a few 50mph gusts near the coast and over the barrier islands Friday night as cold air advection is maximized. All outdoor objects should be secured properly for strong winds Friday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will fall quickly Friday afternoon with most areas into the 40’s by sunset and then into the 30’s by mid evening. Freeze line will advance southward with strong cold air advection and likely reach a Victoria to Wharton to Cypress to Conroe to Livingston line by Saturday morning. This could progress a bit further southward than the current thinking given the intensity of the cold air advection and incoming cold air mass. This will be generally a light freeze, but for vegetation that has begun to break dormancy in the recent days, those buds could be damaged.

Gusty winds will continue into the first part of Saturday with frequent 20-25mph gusts weakening into 10-15mph Saturday afternoon and then clam Saturday evening with cold high pressure nearly overhead. Usually night two is the coldest night following such a frontal passage, but the position of the high pressure cell on Saturday night will begin to support southerly winds by early Sunday morning, so temperatures may not realize their maximum potential. Still think a light freeze for many areas away from the urban cores will be possible on Sunday morning.

After a couple of cold days, spring returns Sunday into next week with southerly flow bringing back warmth and eventually humidity to the region. At this time rain chances look low with any storm systems well off to our north.

Jeff Lindner

[Cromagnum]

Quite a bit of wind predicted tomorrow starting around midday.

[DoctorMu]

Quite a bit of wind predicted tomorrow starting around midday.

NOAA and TWC seem behind in their wind prediction. Now, progging more 20N G30

...will probably be 30 N G40.

[DoctorMu]

NWS just upgraded Friday night to 25 N G35.

Will literally lean toward Jeff on this. 45 mph gusts - wow. Batten down the hatches.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it’s gonna be crazy. Brought in my stuff and moved the lawn furniture. Get ready.

[Iceresistance]

Snowing like crazy outside, 23°F

[Cpv17]

Snowing like crazy outside, 23°F

Lucky!!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A strong cold front has begun to move into Southeast Texas with a
frontal passage at CLL shortly after 5AM CST. Additionally, spotty
rain showers continue to develop mainly west of I-45 due to
increasing moisture ahead of the cold front. Along the coast, MVFR
ceilings continue to steadily move inland (although quite a bit
slower than anticipated). Nevertheless, MVFR ceilings should make
their way to IAH and southward by the mid-morning hours. IFR
ceilings are possible along the coast in this timeframe. Following
the frontal passage this morning, expect strong northerly winds
sustained at 20-25 knots with gusts over 30 knots (gusts near 40
knots for GLS). Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop in a line and move from west to east this afternoon around
20Z with rain lasting through at least 01Z for most sites.
Moisture briefly lingers following the rain in the form of MVFR
ceilings, but skies will begin to clear out around midnight. As
surface high pressure approaches, expect a downward trend in wind
speeds going into Saturday morning. Clear skies will prevail
throughout Saturday.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 430 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

The big story of the day is going to be the strong cold front moving
through Southeast Texas later this morning, but there`s a couple of
things to address out ahead of it. Mainly that a warm front moved in
late Thursday night bringing along with it a sufficient increase in
moisture, which explains the cloud cover and spotty rain showers. As
of 4AM CST, PW values south of I-10 have increased to near 1.0" with
coastal areas near 1.1". The 75th percentile for PW values also just
so happens to be 1.11" (the 90th percentile is 1.35"). PW values are
expected to top out around 1.2" closer to the coast this afternoon.
This is important to note because with a cold front on the way,
we`ll have plenty of moisture to converge along its boundaries (yep
there`s two of em). Current surface FROPA timing is in Aggieland
around 5AM, the Houston metro area around 8AM, and off the coast by
noon.

This is a bit faster than yesterday`s model runs, so I adjusted
temperatures a bit lower for northern locations where the front will
push through before any heating can occur. Also be aware that
today`s high temperatures will occur approximately one second prior
to FROPA...temperatures will tumble throughout the day following
FROPA. With that in mind, high temperatures will range from the low
50s in the Brazos Valley to the low-to-mid 60s south of I-10.
Jumping back a little bit...with the increased moisture from last
night`s warm front, spotty showers have begun popping up along the
coast and west of I-45. Additional rain showers are expected to
develop along the surface frontal boundary due to moisture
convergence, but the more widespread rainfall will actually occur in
the afternoon. Expect strong northerly winds in the wake of the cold
front with sustained winds near 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
and higher gusts along the coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
go into effect later this morning through Saturday morning for
Southeast Texas.

With lingering moisture in place following the surface FROPA
combined with a mid-level shortwave trough swinging through Central
Texas providing plenty of PVA and the 850mb front moving through
Southeast Texas...it`s a recipe for widespread rain showers.
Elevated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either, especially for
areas south of I-10. MUCAPE values are on the low side though with
the highest values near 500 J/kg, and we`ll also have upper-level
convergence working against us with the right exit region of a jet
streak overhead this afternoon. The good news is that the rain
quickly moves out by the evening hours as dry air funnels in
following the 850mb front leading to gradually clearing skies
overnight. 850mb winds will range from 35-45 knots overnight, so
expect the gusty conditions to persist. Strong CAA will drop
temperatures Friday night down into the upper 20s/low 30s for most
of the region. With those strong to moderate northerly winds
continuing into the overnight hours, we`ll also see frigid wind
chill values down into the teens/20s.

Surface high pressure moves overhead on Saturday leading to a
decreasing trend in wind speeds. Saturday looks to be about as
perfect as it gets with clear skies and high temperatures in the mid
50s. High pressure remains overhead on Saturday night, which gives
us the magic combo for max radiational cooling (clear skies and
light winds). Resultingly, most areas north of I-10 will drop below
freezing once again with lows in the low 30s. Elsewhere, lows will
range from the mid to upper 30s with lows in the 40s along the
coast. The surface high pressure will have made its way just east of
us late Saturday night leading to a return of onshore flow. Let`s
just say that it`s very fitting that we "spring" forward an hour on
Saturday night (this counts as a reminder to set your clocks), since
Sunday marks the beginning of a warming trend that`ll have us
feeling like its Springtime by early next week.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Chilly and clear start to Daylight Savings Time on Sunday (after
being shorted an hour of sleep - yes set spring forward an hour)
with high pressure gradually loosening its grip on the area and
excellent radiational cooling (calm/light winds/clear skies and PW
<0.20"). With the retreating of the high warmer weather on the way
as southeasterly flow strengthens through the day. Western areas may
be quite a bit warmer (closer to the 80th-90th percentile of the
guidance - or warmer) Moisture increases as does the cloud cover
throughout the day. Rain chances look slim but not out of the realm
of possibility and probably more of the spits/sprinkles variety.
Upper trough approaches and rain chances ramp up quickly Monday
night. Favorable set up for a band of showers and thunderstorms
along the front. Not too confident yet on the southern extent give
some potent capping but for now will keep thunder mainly along and
east of a Columbus to Freeport line. The coupled jet structure races
off to the east and rain chances should be falling quickly between 3
am and 6 am Tuesday. This cold front is a Pacific cold front so not
nearly as cold and in this case shorter lived as well with pleasant
weather Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Onshore flow increases
ahead of the next system Thursday though it is looking like the
low/trough is weaker and further north.

45

&&

.MARINE...

Gale Warning In Effect

The cold front pushes off the coast near Matagorda this morning and
probably through Galveston Bay near noon. Winds increase abruptly
post frontal and with the 850 front arriving around sunset expect
winds over the Gulf to be howling. Sustained 25-35 knots with
frequent gusts around 40 knots. Still some concern that conditions
could be worse and later shifts may need to keep an eye out for
possible storm warning. 850mb temperatures over the Gulf drop to 0-2
degrees so expect these strong winds throughout the night and then
very gradually diminish late Saturday morning then a second push of
cold air arrives late Saturday. Although the Gale warning will
likely end around noon Saturday expecting SCA conditions well into
early Sunday over the Gulf. Another cold front should arrive early
Tuesday with a brief and low chance of sea fog just prior to the
frontal arrival.

Low water conditions will rapidly develop with the strong offshore
flow and navigation will be challenging with strong ebbing
currents/strong winds and lowering water levels...be on the lookout
for grounding or shoaling this afternoon and especially overnight
and much of the day and evening Saturday.

45

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong cold front will push through Southeast Texas later this
morning/afternoon with strong northerly winds in its wake. Following
the front, expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph
near the coast with gusts up to 35 mph inland and 45 mph along the
coast. Fortunately, drier air will not overlap with the strongest of
the winds. Dry air funnels in on Friday night leading to low min RH
values on Saturday in the 25%-30% range. Winds will still be on the
moderate side with northerly winds sustained at 10-15 mph with 20-25
mph gusts. This is enough to warrant a moderate fire danger rating
for much of Southeast Texas with coastal areas east of Angleton at a
high fire danger rating for Saturday (ratings are from Texas A&M
Forest Service). Moisture begins to increase on Saturday
night/Sunday morning as surface high pressure pushes eastward
allowing for onshore flow to return.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 53 28 55 31 64 / 70 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 64 33 55 35 63 / 70 50 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 38 55 48 62 / 70 50 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon CST Saturday for
the following zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Low Water Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Saturday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning from noon today to noon CST Saturday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Cromagnum]

I feel the wind shifting. Zero rain, though it looks like Florida is going to get smacked today.