March 2022

[ducoop]

“Jacksboro High School took a direct hit. Mass Casualty Alert issued for the school.”

From another site.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather- ... o/2920679/

From this report the Gym has severe damage but the school stated all students were safe.

[Texaspirate11]

HOPING the storm will be too tired to do anything in the Galveston Bay area

[Rip76]

“Jacksboro High School took a direct hit. Mass Casualty Alert issued for the school.”

From another site.

Appears all the students were safe.

[djmike]

[quote=Rip76 post_id=107780 time=<a href="tel:1647899388">1647899388</a> user_id=222]
“Jacksboro High School took a direct hit. Mass Casualty Alert issued for the school.”

From another site.

Appears all the students were safe.
[/quote]

Thank you Jesus!!

[don]

Multiple supercells have formed along the I-35 corridor.Stay weather aware tonight.

[Andrew]

the HRRR continues to show more stable air across Central Texas and the weakening of storms along 35. Something to keep an eye on for the next hour or two.

[Houstonkid]

the HRRR continues to show more stable air across Central Texas and the weakening of storms along 35. Something to keep an eye on for the next hour or two.

More stable for our (Houston) area?

[Stratton20]

It might weaken the storms a little bit, but the storms will still likely be on the strong side

[DoctorMu]

Supercell near Lockhart. Concerned about the vector on this one as they will be long lasting.

[Cpv17]

Oof! That storm near Luling..watch out! It’s looking nasty.

[DoctorMu]

the HRRR continues to show more stable air across Central Texas and the weakening of storms along 35. Something to keep an eye on for the next hour or two.

Very good news if that holds out. The supercell wagon train is headed in this general direction.

[DoctorMu]

Oof! That storm near Luling..watch out! It’s looking nasty.

Yeah - that's the one that *could* take a ride up Hwy 21 toward BCS.

[DoctorMu]

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

Valid 212232Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch #054.
Large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes may accompany any mature
storm within the watch. A corridor of greater severe potential is
likely developing near Austin, TX and will progress northeast
through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, thunderstorm clusters, and linear
segments have developed across the western portions of Tornado Watch
#054 over the past couple of hours, with a history of tornadoes near
Jacksboro and Bowie Texas. Storms continue to develop ahead of a
Pacific front/dryline just west of the I-35 corridor, and are
advancing east into a buoyant airmass. These storms are also
progressing toward the axis of the low-level jet, where greater
moisture and low-level shear exist (per 22z mesoanalysis). 20Z RAP
forecast soundings (valid for 22-00Z) show large, curved hodographs
downshear of the ongoing storms). As such, tornado potential is
expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening hours.

Of particular concern are the supercells along a line from Burnet to
Guadalupe Counties, which are tracking in an thermodynamic
environment characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Given the storm mode
and aforementioned buoyancy/shear, a heightened tornado threat may
develop. Any supercell that becomes dominant/discrete (relatively
pristine inflow) will have the greatest risk for producing strong
tornadoes, and a long-lived, long-tracked tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON 29789609 29399668 29049767 28979804 29099840 29239852
32659821 33549774 33799715 33849607 33399551 32239536
31419550 30509578 29789609

[Andrew]

The Luling storm is very impressive. Dynamics are not as strong that far south but there will be little cutoff of southerly flow which could maintain it for a little while.

[Cpv17]

Confirmed large tornado on the ground near Luling.

[jabcwb2]

With this system continuing to move north and east, do you think the worse part of it will bypass the Houston area?

[Stratton20]

We need that storm by lulling to fizzle, dont like the NE movement its making, if that stable air doesnt come into fruition, we could be in some big trouble

[Cpv17]

With this system continuing to move north and east, do you think the worse part of it will bypass the Houston area?

The worst part of it is supposed to be north and northwest of Houston but that means very little honestly. Your area could almost just as easily see something significant just like the moderate area could. Don’t let your guard down. Harris County is still definitely in play.

[Iceresistance]

Round Rock just got hit by a Tornado, another Tornado Warned Supercell is right over Austin.

This is really bad

[don]

With this system continuing to move north and east, do you think the worse part of it will bypass the Houston area?

The supercells ongoing right now are not supposed to go towards Houston and were never forcasted to.Redevelopment of storms is expected later tonight once the front gets closer and that is when a majority of the area will need to watch for severe weather and flooding.