March 2022

[djmike]

So far so good in Beaumont. Nearing 3” of rain in the gauge. Not really any gusts of wind thankfully. Lightning is crazy. Conditions should be improving over the next hour here. Thank goodness. Louisiana folks, stay weather aware and stay safe!

[Cromagnum]

Chevy got them a free commercial if they want. Hahahaha

https://youtu.be/Kq3muhEsFfE

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221443
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...
...Flood watch has been allowed to expire...
...Tornado watch for Chambers/Galveston area has ended...

Leading edge of the strong storms from near Beaumont to just east
of High Island to 25 nm south of Galveston.

Mid level speed max is pushing into the back side of the system
and across the northern counties and this should continue to push
the trailing showers eastward out of the area in the next few
hours. Clouds are spreading southward around the backside of the
low and these will probably overspread the northern areas which
may lead to some cooler afternoon temperatures. NW winds will be
the norm today as the cold front finally moves through bringing
moderately gusty conditions of 10-15 mph with gusts possibly up
near 20 mph. The southwestern areas will be mostly sunny/sunny.

River levels rose or are still rising but at this point no
impacts expected - should stay within banks. We needed the rain.

45

[mcheer23]

Both GFS and CMC are more aggressive with next weeks system

[Cpv17]

Both GFS and CMC are more aggressive with next weeks system

The Euro had it for a couple runs but the past two runs took it away. The Euro was showing what looked like a cutoff low with several inches of rain over the area.

[Cromagnum]

Both GFS and CMC are more aggressive with next weeks system

The Euro had it for a couple runs but the past two runs took it away. The Euro was showing what looked like a cutoff low with several inches of rain over the area.

Send it to West Texas please.

[tireman4]

I like the line about get out and enjoy it


000
FXUS64 KHGX 222022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Much improved weather on tap through Monday. The upper trough axis
that brought all out weather is in LA/AR this afternoon and
motoring eastward. Another `dry` trough rotating down the backside
of the trough will usher in another reinforcing dry cold front
Thursday morning...possibly some mid/upper clouds but otherwise
just a bump up in winds and some weak CAA. Skies clear out again
and cool nights with warm days will be the norm through the
weekend. Extended guidance is in very good agreement with this dry
and mild pattern until late Sunday/early Monday. Upper troughing
should eventually be moving into the West Coast Monday and this
will start to draw the moisture back northward out of the Gulf and
lead to breezy conditions with warmer nights. Rain chances may
creep into the forecast next Tuesday.

Fantastic Spring weather so get out and enjoy it.

Rivers from last nights widespread rainfall have not had any
significant issues in SETX.

Tide levels along the coast have dropped and have let the coastal
flooding banner expire. Strong rip currents will be slowly
diminishing this afternoon but could linger into the evening
hours.

As for storm damage...NWS Survey Teams and our EM partners are
still out making assessments/aerial surveys. Quick PRELIMINARY
summary so far...tornadoes (EF-2 in Houston County / EF-1 in
Burleson county) but this may increase. Please see the latest
PNSHGX for updated information.

45/42
&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. WNW-NW flow of 8-16kt gusting 14-25kt. Some wrap around post
frontal clouds but so far have been primarily scattered in nature.
Possible that CLL/UTS could briefly dip into MVFR there for a few
more hours then should scatter out.
45

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions with seas of 4-10 feet still this afternoon and
with cold front pushing through the coastal waters now. Winds will
increase with the CAA and remain elevated this evening with seas
only gradually diminishing. Have extended SCAs and added SCEC for
the bays. After sunrise winds should be dropping off. Much lighter
winds on tap Wednesday afternoon/evening. SW flow ramps up ahead
of the next cold front Thursday and wind waves increase
accordingly. May need SCEC/SCA either side of the frontal passage.
Quiet Friday and Saturday then winds increase Sunday as the next
upper trough starts to work.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 43 66 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 46 67 47 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 52 67 57 70 57 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

FORECAST...45
DSS/Survey Support...42

[don]

Looks like the tornado outbreak has been mostly a bust in the Southeast so far today.Good news for them. Interesting because the storm was supposed to be worse over there than here in Texas.Doesn't look like that's going to be the case.
Edit:Spoke too soon while not as bad as yesterday, several reports of damage have come in now for portions of Mississippi unfortunately.But nothing significant in Louisiana though,not even one tornado has been reported so far in Louisiana.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the tornado outbreak has been mostly a bust in the Southeast so far today.Good news for them. Interesting because the storm was supposed to be worse over there than here in Texas.Doesn't look like thats going to be the case.

Not much supercell action going on. Just a squall line. Onto the next potential system. 12z Euro, GFS, CMC were all a step in the right direction with the CMC looking the best. I’m not going to turn down an opportunity for rain because in a few months we could be in a bad drought sizzling in the frying pan.

[Ptarmigan]

The rain was welcomed minus the strong winds and tornadoes.

[869MB]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
815 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

...NWS Damage Survey for 03/21/22 - 03/22/22 Tornado Event
.Beasley...

Rating: EF1
Estimated Peak Wind: 90 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.8185 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 30.0 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 4
Start Date: 03/22/2022
Start Time: 05:35 AM CDT
Start Location: 3 SSE East Bernard / Fort Bend County /
TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.4886 / -96.0397
End Date: 03/22/2022
End Time: 05:37 AM CDT
End Location: 3 SE East Bernard N Trinity
End Lat/Lon: 29.4936 / -96.0273

Survey Summary:
Brief small tornado produced a path of damage that included the
flipping of an RV home, the uprooting of a few large trees and
severe damage to another home. There were 4 injuries to the
occupants of the RV home. Damage was mainly EF0 but rated a
minimal EF1 based on damage to the second property.
&&
EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:
EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

...Unofficial March 21-22 storm survey information...
- EF-1 tornado in Madisonville (Madison County).
- EF-2 tornado (approximately 125 mph winds) in Houston County.
Occasional EF-2 damage stretched from the Mapleton area (near the
intersection of Highway 21 and FM 3275) to near the intersection of
Highway 21 and County Road 3052 to the west and northwest sides of
Crockett. There were three serious injuries and additional minor
injuries with this tornado.
- EF-0 tornado in the Snook area (Burleson County).
- EF-0 tornado between College Station and Snook (Burleson County)
near FM 60 and Reveille Road intersection.
- EF-1 tornado in the Saxon Road area (eastern Brazos County).
This is roughly 5 miles southeast of Kurten or 6 miles west
southwest of Iola.
- EF-0 tornado in Danbury.

[Katdaddy]

Prayers as a large wedge tornado moves across E New Orleans now.

[Stratton20]

Absolutely heart breaking situation in new orleans tonight, seeing footage of a violent and large tornado that destroyed many homes, I would not be surprised at all to see this given an ef-3 or maybe ef-4 rating tommorow, absolutely devastating

[DoctorMu]

That was a massive tornado that moved over the West Bank, across the Mississippi through NOLA proper, though the Ninth Ward and toward Slidell.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/tor ... deep-south

https://twitter.com/LuluWalcott1/status ... 7rTtWuZIpw

https://twitter.com/NewshubNZ/status/15 ... 7rTtWuZIpw


https://twitter.com/WUTangKids/status/1 ... 7rTtWuZIpw

[Cromagnum]

Wind is ripping outside right now.

[DoctorMu]

Incredible damage in NOLA metro area from yesterday's tornado.

https://twitter.com/bclemms/status/1506 ... 7rTtWuZIpw

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 231105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Flight conditions much improved over this time 24 hours ago. VFR
throughout, with winds generally between west and north,
increasing later this morning and becoming modestly gusty this
afternoon, then decreasing again tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/...

.DISCUSSION...

Fair weather dominates the forecast as high pressure prevails for
much of the period. Look for a cooler and dry couple of days in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front, and though a weak front looks
to move through tomorrow, it should have little impact on our
sensible weather.

From there, we can expect a warming trend through the weekend and
into early next week, until our next chances for rain start to
sneak back into the forecast Tuesday night.


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Gusty northwest winds, the last vestige of yesterday`s frontal
passage, took until deep into the evening to subside. However, now
in the early morning hours, we are finally seeing lighter wind
speeds more typical of the overnight period. We can expect today
to look nothing like yesterday morning, but much like yesterday
afternoon once the sky cleared out. The main difference will be in
the strength of the winds, which will be considerably lower than
yesterday afternoon, particularly farther west and inland. Over
the Gulf waters, some more elevated winds are on the table, as the
pressure gradient is likely to be tighter closer to the exiting
front.

Temperatures today look to take a bit of a split. Farther inland,
afternoon highs should be similar to, and likely a little bit
warmer than yesterday as the front cut temperatures down well
before it could get too warm. Near the coast, today should be
a good 5-10 degrees cooler, as temps were able to peak in the low
to mid 70s yesterday before the front chopped them down. Today,
we`re just full out in the cooler airmass. This airmass is also
pretty dry. This is pleasant for most, but does introduce some
need to think about fire weather, which there are more details
about below.

Lows tonight should be pretty close to or a little cooler than
what we`ll fall to in the next few hours, as we`ll get relatively
light winds and a clear sky, pretty ideal for radiational cooling.
But, these same features should allow us to warm up pretty
effectively again tomorrow, even in spite of a weak, secondary
front reinforcing northwest winds. As a result, we should be
starting a warming trend tomorrow that will continue into the long
term part of the forecast.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Benign weather is on tap for this weekend, with ridging setting
in over the region on Friday. A surface high off the coast of
Mexico will usher in light west/southwesterly winds during the
day, becoming southerly as the surface high tracks to the
northeast. The return of onshore flow will funnel warm, moist Gulf
air into SE Texas, initiating a warming trend through the
weekend. Sunny skies on Friday will provide decent heating,
allowing highs to rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Increasing moisture from onshore flow will seek to limit cooling
overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

On Saturday, winds will become southeasterly as the surface high
continues northeast into the southeastern CONUS. Clear skies will
continue to usher sunny weather, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Onshore flow will continue to funnel more moisture into
SE Texas, further limiting cooling during the night. Lows will be
in the lower 50s to upper 60s.

Pleasant weather should continue through the weekend and into next
week. Onshore flow will strengthen on Sunday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a surface low over the Central Rockies.
Isentropic uplift and ample moisture will allow for cloudy skies to
build across the region by Monday afternoon, slowing the warming
trend through Wednesday. The aforementioned surface low will slide
eastward through the Central Plains on Thursday, bringing another
cold front into our area.


.MARINE...

Caution and Advisory flags remain in effect until this afternoon,
with winds, and subsequently seas, slowly diminishing as high
pressure builds over the region. Moderate southwesterly flow will
develop overnight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a weak
cold front. This weak cold front will push through the waters
Thursday night, though minimal impacts are expected from its
passage. Light NW winds will set in late Thursday night, becoming
southerly Friday evening with the arrival of high pressure. Onshore
flow will continue into the weekend, slowly strengthening into next
week ahead of another cold front next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry post-frontal airmass is working its way into the region.
Despite cooler temperatures, look for RH to drop to around or
below 30 percent across most of the area. Out in the far west, min
RH values in the mid-20s look likely. Now, with all that said,
the dry air will be mitigated by light to moderate winds at most,
and fuel conditions from yesterday`s rainfall.

Of course, with several days of no rain expected and several dry
days ahead, we`ll have to monitor how conditions change the fire
environment. Winds should be a little stronger on Thursday with a
weak front (so weak, Thursday afternoon should be warmer in spite
of the `cold` front), and at least the lighter fuels will start to
see the drying impact of the stretch of days with low RH.
Fortunately, overnight recovery still looks alright to help out
here, though not reaching the typical near-saturation levels we
often see. ERC values for the vast majority of the area look to
remain near or below median values, which should continue to
mitigate fire potential.

Fuels will continue to slowly dry as we head into the end of the
week with further days of dry air and warming temperatures. We`ll
have to keep our eyes on the potential heading into Friday and
perhaps even Saturday as TFS forecast graphics show heavier fuels
beginning to noticeably respond to the drier conditions.
Onshore flow should return this weekend though, which will start a
trend of increasing humidity for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 67 40 70 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 45 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 57 70 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs

[Iceresistance]

Mike Ventrice has a concerning forecast next week
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

[captainbarbossa19]

Mike Ventrice has a concerning forecast next week
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

Yep. Severe weather season is really picking up now. Models are hinting at the strong possibility of thunderstorms again mid next week for our area. I am all for it as long as no severe weather.

[Stratton20]

Agreed, rain is fine, but hoping for no severe weather if that system comes to fruition, ofc its far out but worth watching, but man see images from the damage in eastern parts of new orleans is just absolutely heartbreaking