March 2022

[jasons2k]

It was a great day for baseball. A bit windy but at least it was from the right direction!!

Watching Monday’s storm system…

[Cpv17]

It was a great day for baseball. A bit windy but at least it was from the right direction!!

Watching Monday’s storm system…

Most of us probably won’t get much of anything even though there’s like a 60 or 70% chance of rain.

[jasons2k]

It was a great day for baseball. A bit windy but at least it was from the right direction!!

Watching Monday’s storm system…

Most of us probably won’t get much of anything even though there’s like a 60 or 70% chance of rain.

Certainly wouldn’t be the first time

[captainbarbossa19]

It was a great day for baseball. A bit windy but at least it was from the right direction!!

Watching Monday’s storm system…

Most of us probably won’t get much of anything even though there’s like a 60 or 70% chance of rain.

Certainly wouldn’t be the first time

I am hoping the Euro is right about rainfall with this upcoming system. 1-2 inches would be nice about now heading into spring.

[jasons2k]

Weather app now says 32 Saturday morning, NWS-HGX says a low of 35. We’ll see.

Looks like we will get some rain though.

[Cromagnum]

Daily rain predicted all weekend but didn't get a drop. Put down my lawn fertilizer today so hoping we don't get a gully washer now.

[jasons2k]

Well chances tomorrow have been lowered to 50%. Still 80% for Tuesday- we’ll see.
It was a wonderful weekend! Kids played outside yesterday and all day today - as it should be!! A lot better than being cooped-up indoors - that’s for sure! I’m hoping this next cold snap is quick and the end of it!

[DoctorMu]

Most of us probably won’t get much of anything even though there’s like a 60 or 70% chance of rain.

Certainly wouldn’t be the first time

I am hoping the Euro is right about rainfall with this upcoming system. 1-2 inches would be nice about now heading into spring.

Yeah, Sectors 1-4 are out on my sprinkler system. We switched from Suddenlink to Frontier internet not long ago and it is fast. However, there was a lot of digging in the yard. Because of the high Na+ in CLL water our sprinkler system parts are all plastic and susceptible to damage, settling, going out just to be obstinate.

The wind felt nice in the afternoon. Now it's sultry and nasty. Tomorrow, overcast and nasty but cooler.

The front probably will not bring much rain if any. Allegedly, an upper level short wave will give us overrun on Tuesday. We'll see.


Then, I'm hoping for 10 days of moderate weather, more sun, and lowish DPs. Friday's cold front looks pretty dry. Maybe our last frost/freeze Fri night.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Quite the sequence of events will unfold within this TAF period...
Ceilings are already on a decline as MVFR ceilings move in from
the south. Expect ceilings to continue to decrease through the
overnight hours with IFR ceilings expected shortly after
midnight. Along the coast at GLS, sea fog should further drop
visibility to LIFR just before the cold front moves through on
early Monday morning. As the cold front pushes through Southeast
Texas, there will be a band of rain showers along the boundary.
VCSH has been introduced along with winds turning westerly then
northerly in the wake of the front. Current timing for the cold
front is 07Z for the northern sites, 10Z in the Houston metro
area, and 12Z for the coastal sites. Moisture will linger behind
the front for most sites, especially along the coast, so these
locations (GLS/LBX) will likely remain MVFR or lower through the
entire period. This also means that spotty rain showers/drizzle
will linger through Monday morning as well. Gusty northerly winds
behind the front are anticipated with sustained winds up to 15-20
knots and gusts up to 25-28 knots. Going into the evening hours,
another round of rain showers moves in from the southwest as a
coastal trough approaches. Expect widespread rain showers Monday
night into Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 312 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...

Today has been another warm/humid early March day across Southeast Texas
with early afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Similar
to yesterday, it is quite breezy out there (south winds 15 to 25 mph
with gusts around 35 mph), and if enough breaks in the clouds develop
during the remaining afternoon hours we might even get a couple more
degrees warmer (Galveston has already tied their record high temperature
for today of 77 set in 1999, 1918 and 1880). Speaking of temperature
records, see the Climate section below for more information on how warm
today`s lows have been so far. For tonight, skies will be cloudy, winds
will be coming down and there will continue to be some potential for
sea fog development near/along the coast. Gradually rising shower and
possible thunderstorm chances can be expected overnight as the cold
front moves into the area. At this time, we are looking at a wind shift
to the northwest (becoming gusty) and falling temperatures behind the
front that arrives around 3-5am north, 5-7am central and 8-10 am coast.
We are still anticipating rain totals to be between a tenth to a quarter
of an inch with some isolated higher amounts possible. Monday`s high
temperatures will likely occur before or shortly after sunrise at most
inland locations and in the morning hours (before around 9am or so)
at the coast. A tightening surface pressure gradient behind the front
will help to bring breezy conditions to the area with most locations
seeing falling temperatures throughout the day (into the 50s most
locations and maybe even into the 40s far north). With the surface
high behind the front centered to our north on Monday night and with
a coastal trough and surface low beginning to develop off the Texas
coast, winds will not become calm and lingering clouds can be expected
too (showers possible central and especially south and offshore) helping
to keep low temperatures mostly in the 40s. 42

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

The week will start off a cloudy and wet as persistent low level WAA
overrides the cold front moving into the Gulf tomorrow ahead of
another mid/upper level shortwave trough. This will bring rain
Tuesday which will linger into much of the day Wednesday (especially
nearer the coast) before clearing out midweek. Have kept temps a bit
on the cool side of the blended guidance Tuesday given the clouds
and rain on tap, with some recovery in max temps Wednesday. Thursday
looks to be the nicest day of the week with plenty of sunshine and a
return to the mid to upper 70s for highs. However, this recovery of
spring-like weather will be brief as another cold front moves
quickly through the area early Friday bringing with it another round
of showers. Max temps Friday will be tricky depending on the timing
of the front and may occur early in the day. This is a seasonably-
cold airmass and many will start their spring break vacations with
breezy and cool weather on Saturday, including a night or two near
or below freezing for the northern areas. Highs Saturday will likely
not get out of the 50s. Fortunately, it appears this cold intrusion
will also be brief-lived as sunny skies and high pressure bring more
pleasant weather back to end to the weekend into early next week.

Evans

[Stratton20]

looks like model data wont be available for a while on tropical tidbits , cant wait fro this cold snap though! Screw the 80’s

[DoctorMu]

The low last night was 70°F with high humidity. That's just wrong for early March.

[Stratton20]

06z GFS gets close to showing another winter storm setup over the state by this friday

[Cromagnum]

Meh. Just bring on cooler weather. Don't need frosts and feeezes anymore until this fall.

[jasons2k]

NWS says 30 on Saturday morning and “blustery”

Feel bad for all the folks I saw loading-up at Lowe’s and Home Depot over the weekend. I talked a lady out of buying a bottle palm and a fishtail palm. They shouldn’t be selling those here.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Strong cold front likely late this week with potential for sub-freezing temperatures over much of the area.

Surface cold front has moved off the coast this morning with cooler air mass filtering into the region. Light rain showers will linger into the noonish hour and then begin to dry from north to south as a deeper dry layer advances into the region. Temperatures will go nowhere today with continued cold air advection, clouds, and light rain with many areas remaining in the 50’s and some areas falling into the 40’s.

Break in the rainfall will be short lived as a coastal trough/low begins to develop tonight along the stalling front off the lower TX coast. Strong southerly transport will begin above the entrenched surface cold dome yielding lift and increasing moisture over the area. Showers will begin to develop from the Corpus and Matagorda Bay area’s late tonight and then expand NNE across southeast TX on Tuesday. There may be enough instability for some thunder also especially near the coast with banded precipitation will be most likely. Could see some moderate to at times heavy rainfall on Tuesday especially south of I-10, but with very dry grounds across the region this will be welcomed.

Rainfall amounts of .50-.75 of an inch will be possible with locally higher totals, especially south of I-10. Temperatures will remain in the 40’s and 50’s on Tuesday with increasing northeast winds, clouds and rainfall.

Slow clearing on Wednesday with some showers lingering near the coast and then much warmer with mostly sunny conditions on Thursday and highs back in the mid 70’s.

Friday:
Modified arctic air mass spills down the plains and into TX on Thursday and this front will likely be off the coast on Friday. As with similar fronts this season, will go with the fastest and colder solutions as global models have been too slow and warm with these fronts over the last month. A few showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front, but the rainfall looks slight at best with the greatest forcing off to the north and east (common in La Nina springs). High temperatures will be prior to the front with temperatures falling into the 50’s and possibly the 40’s during the day on Friday with strong northerly winds.

Of more importance will be how cold behind the front with a good chance that many areas will fall to or below freezing for Saturday and Sunday mornings. This looks to be a light freeze, although some areas north and west (Columbus to College Station to Huntsville) could see upper 20’s. Normally a freeze of this magnitude is a little concern for the region, but with vegetation starting to break dormancy and for agriculture interest that may have planted a bit early there is concern with such a freeze.

As we move through the week and get a better handle on the intensity of this cold air mass, temperatures will likely be adjusted some.

Jeff Lindner

[davidiowx]

I went and got a lot of veggies for the garden this past weekend but won’t be planting them until after next week, for sure. Can’t believe some of these big box stores would con people into buying palms that die in a light freeze that we typically see a few times a winter.

[don]

No surprise at all,as i mentioned this possibility a few days ago... but models have shifted the storm further south.The models are showing a classic snow setup for the northern half of the state.For right now snow looks to remain north of us in SE Texas.But any shifts further south in the storm track could potentially put SE Texas in play also.Though not likely.

[jasons2k]

I went and got a lot of veggies for the garden this past weekend but won’t be planting them until after next week, for sure. Can’t believe some of these big box stores would con people into buying palms that die in a light freeze that we typically see a few times a winter.

They used to sell Royal Palms at the HD in Shenandoah. One year they even had some Coconut palms. Like seriously? Yeah, it’s pretty much a con.

This weekend’s weather won’t be a fun start to Spring Break, that’s for sure. All my yard work and planting is on hold. I’ll be so glad when this cold snap is over. I’m tired of looking at dead stuff.

[Stratton20]

Fingers crossed for the storm system to shift further south, even a minor snow event to close out “ winter” would be awesome🥶

[Cromagnum]

So how about all that rain forecast for today?

[djmike]

We sure didn’t see that 90% chance for rain in Beaumont this morning. Few sprinkles and that was it. Im ready for a gully washer! Haven’t had a good rain in a while. Have a feeling tomorrow’s 90% will be a dud too like they have been all winter.