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I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!

I see a lot of Big Suck early June weather ahead for the beginning of May. At best isolated storms around next Monday.

Return flow begins tomorrow.

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:44 pm I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!

After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...

From Eric Berger:

“Today’s the day, y’all. I’m not guaranteeing this will be the last day of “spring,” but it might well be.”

On another note, both NWS and weather app show 30% chances on rain on Saturday and Sunday.

Todays going to be an absolute beautiful day! Might be the last one till October. Get out there and enjoy it!

Hopefully we can get a few earlier fronts in September and knock out some of our hurricane season for southeast texas. Miserable when the first real front passes in November.

Gulf of mexico is running well above normal and still warming up fast, gonna be another long season with la nina in place, hoping for no hurricanes, but will take a weak system when the drought conditions kick in

SOI is sky high. We can probably forget about any significant rain events around here anytime soon.

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:29 am Hopefully we can get a few earlier fronts in September and knock out some of our hurricane season for southeast texas. Miserable when the first real front passes in November.

Yep. Absolutely a Chamber of Commerce day with crystal blue skies, dry air and a bit of breeze. 80°F and green all around.

This is the Day! Very Chill. Sprinklers off. Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/E1JiTkufJgY

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:31 pm SOI is sky high. We can probably forget about any significant rain events around here anytime soon.

I know! Even a pressure crash at key locations failed to get the SOI to fall, the La Nina is insanely powerful for a Spring Barrier period.

It may enhance hurricanes in the Atlantic later this year though . . .

NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:19 pm NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different

I think they mainly go by what the ensembles are showing instead of the operationals.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:55 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:19 pm NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different

I think they mainly go by what the ensembles are showing instead of the operationals.

The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS) are picking up a backdoor front next week that appears to linger. That would be nice.

Euro is now seeing the back door front late next week.

12Z GFS looks pretty active in the long range FWIW as we enter the 2nd week of May.

Looks like the southern and central plains is about to get a big uptake in severe weather as we enter May.Now as far as any severe weather here locally is yet to be determined.One thing to keep in mind as we saw Monday,its common in the mid to long range this time of year for models to stall or wash out fronts too far to the north.Keeping the majority of rain north of us.But in reality a lot of times this time of year fronts will end up further south than what the models show in the mid range.So don't be surprised if the models trend wetter here in SE Texas over the next week.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:44 pm I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!

After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...

Don’t forget about NW flow aloft events. We often get a couple of those off the dryline in the May/Early June timeframe before it becomes truly summer.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:45 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:44 pm I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!

After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...

Don’t forget about NW flow aloft events. We often get a couple of those off the dryline in the May/Early June timeframe before it becomes truly summer.

Those NW aloft modes are nice, because we get drier air and rain. I suspect we'll see the seabreeze before NW aloft dry lines or cutoff ULLs. We'll see.

Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:46 am Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.

That's because those forecast are based on model data(I'm sure you already know that though ).So when the model flip flops between runs the automated forecast does also.I never pay any attention to app forecast for that reason.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:46 am Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.

Down to 20% here.