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Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 5:08 pm
by DoctorMu
Trending better for 12/13th rain but mostly east of CLL.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 5:10 pm
by Cromagnum
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 3:34 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 1:12 pm
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:24 am
The way 2022 has gone, I'll be pulling the sprinklers out next week too.
I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterday's 12z run and the 0z Thursday run. The GFS is about the same between runs, but what matters is if the rainfall is decreasing overall or shifting away from the region. In these cases, the trends are encouraging.
The 12z Euro was still a no go for most of us. It’s really favoring the Golden Triangle and LA/MS. Need it to trend wsw a good 100 miles.
Louisiana and Dixie Alley has been a hot bed already this year. The west Texas desert keeps moving more east all the time.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 5:28 pm
by Iceresistance
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 5:10 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 3:34 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 1:12 pm
I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterday's 12z run and the 0z Thursday run. The GFS is about the same between runs, but what matters is if the rainfall is decreasing overall or shifting away from the region. In these cases, the trends are encouraging.
The 12z Euro was still a no go for most of us. It’s really favoring the Golden Triangle and LA/MS. Need it to trend wsw a good 100 miles.
Louisiana and Dixie Alley has been a hot bed already this year. The west Texas desert keeps moving more east all the time.
The Drought Feedback loop is really showing itself, but that pattern will break eventually.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 6:19 pm
by Stratton20
18z GFS has backed off on rain totals somewhat
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:28 pm
by jasons2k
Re: April 2022
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:47 pm
by Cpv17
According to the GFS, we need to be watching for some severe weather next Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 7:53 am
by Iceresistance
The High Parameters for severe storms have trended south on the GFS, it's currently as far south as South-Central Oklahoma
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:51 pm
by jasons2k
This perpetual north wind is getting old. I’m ready for things to calm down and settle into our seabreeze pattern. I’m just done with it.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:26 pm
by DoctorMu
Another beautiful day with low humidity in CLL. I just need our sprinklers fixed!
Humidity is on the rise this weekend, but no rain until Tuesday/Wednesday. Concerned about a bust.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:30 pm
by Cpv17
The 12z Euro looks a bit better today. Fingers crossed we can all cash in with at least an inch or two.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 7:29 pm
by Cpv17
The GFS is no longer looking good for rain next week.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 7:45 pm
by srainhoutx
Just in case anyone misses winter, it's snowing in the Smoky Mountains this evening.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 12:18 am
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 7:29 pm
The GFS is no longer looking good for rain next week.
The rain is back now. Lol
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:23 pm
by Cpv17
These systems that are coming out from the west are ejecting out too far north for us really have any significant rain chances. Till we see some dig into Southern California/Baja Peninsula and eject out across Mexico and Texas, don’t get your hopes up.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:26 pm
by Stratton20
I just dont see any significant rain chances worth talking about over the next 10-14 days, the system next week looks meh
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:35 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:26 pm
I just dont see any significant rain chances worth talking about over the next 10-14 days, the system next week looks meh
Actually after next week I see some better rain chances but that’s too far out to have any confidence in that. We just need these systems to dig further south before ejecting. When you see these lows going over Kansas and Nebraska, you can forget about any decent rains around here.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:40 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 yep I think ridging is too prevalent to allow any of those systems to dive further south, at least the way it stands right now, west texas especially needs the rain badly
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:56 pm
by DoctorMu
Massive gradient for rainfall from west to east Texas over the next two weeks. 1.5 inches from I-45 east.
West of I-35 looks bad.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:53 am
by Iceresistance
There's a Marginal Risk on Tuesday for SE Texas, but I'm in the HATCHED Enhanced risk.
Re: April 2022
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:04 pm
by Stratton20
im under a slight risk