Hurricane Danielle Western Atlantic

[biggerbyte]

Scenario:

Ridge builds in... It is strong. There is no trough.

Hmmm!

East coast should at least entertain the possibilty. Not likely to happen, but this is weather we are talking about.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Danielle will intensify again despite the weakening trend.

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[unome]

compare that with the 1st weather satellite - you've come a long way, baby

[sleetstorm]

compare that with the 1st weather satellite - you've come a long way, baby

Where did you obtain that visible satellite picture, unome? I very much like.

[Andrew]

compare that with the 1st weather satellite - you've come a long way, baby

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... o_anim.gif

Where did you obtain that visible satellite picture, unome? I very much like.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/

[unome]

compare that with the 1st weather satellite - you've come a long way, baby

Where did you obtain that visible satellite picture, unome? I very much like.

It's from the CIMSS Satellite Blog - love that place http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 250833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 51.0W
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[biggerbyte]

East coast folks still need to watch Danielle. There are some indications that she may head west or northwest under building high pressure to the north. Conditions are changing in many areas that are going to bring these systems more westward. Too early to tell if Danielle can skip out to sea before this high builds in strong enough to be a game changer for her.

There is some model support, but not complete support...yet.
I've been cutting the whole model thing some slack as of late, against my better judgement. If the east coast takes on this hurricane... There has to be something better.

In the meantime. Earl, and beyond will need to be watched carefully, as the changes mentioned above open up the Caribbean and Gulf again.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260239
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHE

[biggerbyte]

Still looks good for a swim with the fish. Not discounting landfall entirely, but sea bound holds the majority.

[srainhoutx]

WTNT31 KNHC 262035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...DANIELLE DEVELOPS AN EYE AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 57.0W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Danielle is a major hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...SWELLS FROM DANIELLE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST STARTING TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 57.6W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[unome]

there's the 1st cat 4 of the 2010 season & nary a post since last night??? take your vitamins, folks !

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1149.shtml?

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE OF THE YEAR 2010. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 27/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.5N 58.7W...OR ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211945.GIF (link to loop)



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 212115.GIF (link to loop)

[srainhoutx]

Good shot of Danielle...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 271451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF DANIELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT
AND EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE STARTED TO COOL AND THE COLDEST CLOUD RING NOW ENCIRCLES THE
EYE ABOUT 75 PERCENT. THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T5.9/114 KT
AND AN ODT OF T6.1/117 KT FROM NHC. A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
DANIELLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW
BRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE
MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
THROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION
AT 12Z. THE GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30N
LATITUDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF DANIELLE ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT IS CONVERGING INTO A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHEAST COULD BUILD THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND SLOWER
RECURVATURE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER
RECURVATURE OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND TURN
IT MORE POLEWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER
AND MORE POLEWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
OUTFLOW REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THE IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...DECREASING SHEAR...AND SSTS OF 29C...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IN THE
96-120 TIME PERIOD...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS-GFDL-HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.9N 59.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 27.9N 60.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 61.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 60.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 34.3N 57.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 38.0N 52.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 46.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[sleetstorm]

[quote="unome"]there's the 1st cat 4 of the 2010 season & nary a post since last night??? take your vitamins, folks !

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1149.shtml?

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE OF THE YEAR 2010. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 27/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.5N 58.7W...OR ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211945.GIF (link to loop)



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 212115.GIF (link to loop)

[/q
I would not be astonished if Danielle were to reach category 5 status sometime today or tonight regardless of how little time that storm has left prior weakening due to cooler water and turning into an extratropical cyclone.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 60.3W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272335
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
800 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 60.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE