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Re: May 2022
Posted: Tue May 03, 2022 10:14 pm
by jasons2k
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:58 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 11:37 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 4:21 pm
Temps this weekend and beyond, about 10-13°F above normal will continue the early warming of the GoM incubator.
A bit of a break Thursday and Friday but only easing toward normal, but still 5-6°F above normal!
The Big Suck returns! And a month early this year.
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Yep. Hope y'all enjoyed the two weeks of Spring!
We actually had a long, cool spring this year.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 12:37 pm
by Stratton20
Unfortunately looks like a death ridge is set to build right over us next week, tommorow looks like our past real chance for rain for quite some time, I see lots of upper 90’s and low 100’s for texas coming up in the future
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:03 pm
by DoctorMu
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 8:28 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:06 pm
Models and Ensembles are consistent with a massive upper level ridge building next week. Brief relief, then a Death Ridge builds over Texas by May 19.
This weekend will be hot...then it's going to get worse. Any precip. is progged as mostly going to be north of the area. CLL might get lucky Thursday and late next week.
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
I was wrong.
It's going to be WORSE than I thought yesterday after tomorrow's chance of rain. For at least a week after that...no relief from searing heat on GFS or GEPS Ensemble through the 20th. We all may be heading down to Jason's pool!
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:15 pm
by DoctorMu
This may be a good time to plan a trip to see our son in Minnesota this month.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:22 pm
by captainbarbossa19
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 1:03 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 8:28 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:06 pm
Models and Ensembles are consistent with a massive upper level ridge building next week. Brief relief, then a Death Ridge builds over Texas by May 19.
This weekend will be hot...then it's going to get worse. Any precip. is progged as mostly going to be north of the area. CLL might get lucky Thursday and late next week.
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
I was wrong.
It's going to be WORSE than I thought yesterday after tomorrow's chance of rain. For at least a week after that...no relief from searing heat on GFS or GEPS Ensemble through the 20th. We all may be heading down to Jason's pool!
I highly doubt it's going to stay around 100 degrees for that long. If it does, we are in serious trouble. However, sometimes early heat waves like this are not always the bearer of bad news for summer weather. It will certainly heat up the Gulf, which may start up seabreeze showers sooner once the ridge shifts away.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:25 pm
by JDsGN
jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 10:14 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:58 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 11:37 pm
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Yep. Hope y'all enjoyed the two weeks of Spring!
We actually had a long, cool spring this year.
Really? Last years spring was way longer weather wise. I guess if you count that we didnt get too much of a winter and combine late "winter" and the 2 weeks of spring lol.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:32 pm
by Stratton20
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:34 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 10:14 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:58 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 11:37 pm
I knew (and posted) awhile back it was gonna flip and flip fast. It happened a little later than I expected, because we’ve been running a month behind for so long all spring and then bam - it’s summer. Not surprised.
We may need to look out for an early season spin up in the Gulf. Yes, I posted that here before S2K. Just for my local peeps.
Get ready. We need to be ready and prepared for this season.
Yep. Hope y'all enjoyed the two weeks of Spring!
We actually had a long, cool spring this year.
We had a long Spring last year. It didn't get into the 90s much until mid June. Lots of rain and a cool May. We even had FROPA though July!
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 1:38 pm
by DoctorMu
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 1:22 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 1:03 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 8:28 pm
I will go with the consensus for next week, but beyond that all bets are off on what will happen. May has a tendency to pull weird tricks with rain. Sometimes it's bone dry all month, but that is not super common. Only 4 years since 2000 recorded less than one inch of rain at IAH for the month of May: 2003, 2009, 2011, and 2012.
I was wrong.
It's going to be WORSE than I thought yesterday after tomorrow's chance of rain. For at least a week after that...no relief from searing heat on GFS or GEPS Ensemble through the 20th. We all may be heading down to Jason's pool!
I highly doubt it's going to stay around 100 degrees for that long. If it does, we are in serious trouble. However, sometimes early heat waves like this are not always the bearer of bad news for summer weather. It will certainly heat up the Gulf, which may start up seabreeze showers sooner once the ridge shifts away.
Toward Houston, yes. But we're going to be in the upper 90s in CLL for awhile. The seabreeze usually doesn't make it past Navasota...especially not with a ridge overhead.
Hopefully, you're right...but this pattern triggers too much of 2010-2012. I'm going to start my summer tree program this week just in case...
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 3:00 pm
by jasons2k
NWS has significantly raised chances of rain tomorrow evening to 80% here. Please don’t pull a Lucy this time!!!
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 3:47 pm
by don
The HRRR sure does looks nice tomorrow...
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 4:00 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 3:47 pm
The HRRR sure does looks nice tomorrow...
Man that’s a really close call for me.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 4:03 pm
by Stratton20
I have final exams tommorow, i really hope this rain holds off until the afternoon/evening time
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 4:31 pm
by Waded
I see there is another small craft advisory issued due to high winds. As I've gotten into both drones and cycling this past year, one thing I've noticed is how windy it seems to be all the time. I wonder if that is normal or we just had a windy year
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 4:36 pm
by Cpv17
Waded wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 4:31 pm
I see there is another small craft advisory issued due to high winds. As I've gotten into both drones and cycling this past year, one thing I've noticed is how windy it seems to be all the time. I wonder if that is normal or we just had a windy year
This time of the year it’s fairly normal. Although this year has been a bit more windy than average. The winds will start to calm down as we get deeper into May but spring is always a windy time of year around here.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 5:18 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 4:00 pm
don wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 3:47 pm
The HRRR sure does looks nice tomorrow...
Man that’s a really close call for me.
HRRR is showing 1 inch plus for me. It won't break the drought, but it will certainly help with the long stretch of hot weather coming up. The ridge will be dominant next week, but beyond that is too hard to make any calls. Unfortunately, there are not many if any signs to indicate an upcoming wetter pattern. I was looking at older climate records and I found that 1999 and 2000 were both dry years for my area too. It seems like we have dry years about every 10-12 years roughly.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 6:31 pm
by don
From HGX regarding tomorrow afternoon:
An band of showers and thunderstorms will make its way out ahead
of this front and into the Collage Station/Huntsville area in the
late afternoon/early evening (roughly 3-4 PM), bringing potential
strong to severe thunderstorms across our area. The highest
impacts from this event will likely be seen in areas north of
Conroe...and more specifically locations northeast of a Madisonville
to Cleveland line. One note, however, is that recent HREF
guidance has been trending southward with the severe wx
threat...possibly extending as far south as the Houston/Galveston
area should mesoscale conditions at the time remain favorable.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts...as they might trend that
direction with further consistency.
The primary hazards from this line of storms will be strong
damaging winds, though hail and isolated tornadoes can`t be fully
ruled out. Heavy rain will also be possible at times, with PWATS
ranging from 1.6"- 2.0" indicating high rainfall efficiency.
However, this system should move fast enough to mitigate the heavy
rainfall threat. WAA at will continue to bring warm conditions
across the region during the day, with highs in the mid to upper
80s.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 8:54 pm
by txbear
Looked out the window and could have really thought we had storms approaching from the west. Looked like classic blowoff from a really good storm.
Turns out, that it is in fact blowoff, but from the storm near Del Rio…240 miles away. Gotta be a dang tall behemoth of a hailer.
Miss seeing that evening sky color during storm season, although the damaging hail is less that ideal.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 10:10 pm
by Cpv17
Looks like the tornado that just hit Lockett has got to be every bit of an EF3.
Re: May 2022
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 10:28 pm
by Cpv17
0z HRRR looks pretty good for tomorrow evening. Shows about an inch or more for just about all of southeast TX.
