Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Guidance keeps all of the teleconnections negative through about march 10-11th, this could be a long duration cold pattern

[sambucol]

Larry Cosgrove:

It would be wise to do a walk-through on why the weather pattern will be colder than what we have experienced nationally since mid-January. This is not February 2021 redux; rather, it is a more spread-out event that will support perhaps two ice and snow events along the southern and eastern tier of the lower 48 states. I cannot be any more specific than that, but the similarity of the numerical models and analogs is impressive.

Most likely time frame: February 12 – March 7. There could be a small break of moderation involved somewhere. But climatology of -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking scenarios basically involves temperature averages in most of the USA being below normal. And in the case of the south central and Dixie states, well below average.

Storm threats: judging by the 500MB height anomalies on the various models, February 12 – 14 and February 17 – 20. Track probability is greatest along a South Texas – Florida – Nova Scotia arc. The second threat appears to be greater and would involve a good deal of frozen types to the left of the path of the disturbances.

Strongest cold potential: February 16 – 20 from the High Plains to the Gulf and East Coast.

Clues in the synoptic pattern that the cold/snow risks should not be taken lightly: even with so much ridging, a gap in the upper flow is present which will allow for cross-polar flow. Also, note that the Arctic jet stream dips below the Great Lakes with recurrent cAk vortex formation in Ontario, James Bay, and Quebec. Also note the evolution of a storm aloft that gets into Baja California. Very low in latitude, redevelopment should be below the TX Gulf Coast. That trajectory is a colder and wetter one for the Lone Star State, the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard.

[Stratton20]

Im siding with cosgrove with this pattern,I dont expect severe cold with this setup , but their will be cold air coming down, the storm track is very far south, all its going to take is a dynamic system, and if he’s wrong oh well not a big deal, given his great track record i have no reason not to believe what he is seeing

[sambucol]

Im siding with cosgrove with this pattern,I dont expect severe cold with this setup , but their will be cold air coming down, the storm track is very far south, all its going to take is a dynamic system, and if he’s wrong oh well not a big deal, given his great track record i have no reason not to believe what he is seeing

I agree with you.

[Stratton20]

sambucol yeah it just annoys me when folks are so quick to write off a pattern, their is still plenty of evidence in the models that say its coming, below average looks good, not severe cold and im not calling for some big outbreak, but I do believe it will get cold enough to support at least a chance to see something frozen down here

[sambucol]

Yep. Same here. Plus, Larry Cosgrove has a pretty good track record. I’m expecting the cold and possible winter precip in our area.

[Stratton20]

sambucol i think it will get chilly, not too crazy, as for the precip part, all global modes show some sort of system with even the GFS run (12z) had some snow flurries in the houston metro, we have an active sub tropical jet/ storm track, its just a question of if we can time both of those factors just right

[Thundersleet]

Please let the time of all of the factor be right, ripe. Optimistic vibes everyone.

[Thundersleet]

Oh and, in English with all my of the complex meteorology talk if you please.

[Stratton20]

Thundersleet yeah we arent finished yet, models are showing, especially the euro, a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex breaking off and diving down into central canada and eventually the US border, this is something that could drag down some much colder air into the US, but it also will give the models plenty of fits

[sambucol]

Thundersleet yeah we arent finished yet, models are showing, especially the euro, a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex breaking off and diving down into central canada and eventually the US border, this is something that could drag down some much colder air into the US, but it also will give the models plenty of fits

Is that in the Feb 17-20 timeframe?

[Stratton20]

sambucol yeah, for now the euro is the most bullish, so we just wait and watch

[Stratton20]

Hmm? Models agree we get chilly this weekend, now if we can just time that cold air..

[Cpv17]

Hmm? Models agree we get chilly this weekend, now if we can just time that cold air..

Wish it would happen! Prove all the doubters wrong about winter being over lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I know man, i dont care if we just get flurries, i just want something exciting to happen, fingers crossed this isnt a one time run, but knowing the GFS, its probably just a tease lol

[sambucol]

What kind of temps?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol highs in the low 40’s, lows near 32 ish,

[Stratton20]

Interesting , just updated a few days ago by NOAA, they dont think winter is over, also discussing potential 2nd SSWE with possible impacts in early march

[Stratton20]

GFS, Euro and both ensembles on board that a SSWE is under way sometime this week i believe, from what ive heard at least, potentiall impacts in early march, but could also just effect europe just as much as the US, so lots to watch, but this is a big factor as to why I believe people are throwing the towel in way too early despite us going into a warmer pattern for a while

[sambucol]

Stratton, are the models showing a SSWE?