Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Im becoming intrigued by the pattern showing up in the ensembles as we head into February, 18z GEFS for reference , shows a -NAO signature beginning to form while a new ridge begins to form over alaska, looks better for cold beyond the first week of february

[Cpv17]

If I had to guess I’d say winter comes back sometime between February 10th-15th and precipitation chances should be better this time around.

[sambucol]

Winter is returning.

[Stratton20]

Just updated 3-4 week outlook from noaa, things get really interesting starting around the 10th timeframe

[Stratton20]

EPO takes a huge nose dive after the 12th on the GEFS ( with some members approaching extreme territory) and EPS, AO/ NAO/ go negative and stay negative for quite some time, PNA goes positive, but stays between sigma 1-2 so not overly positive, so wouldn’t be surprised to see the ensembles shift back west some, either way it looks like a much colder and active pattern is in-store for valentines day and beyond

[sambucol]

That’s great news!!

[Stratton20]

Euro weeklies and latest CFS guidance are incredible, they both keep us well below average temperature wise starting after the 13th of february and continuing through almost all of march, noaas 3-4 week outlook reflects this idea as well

[sambucol]

I hope that happens.

[Stratton20]

My goodness 18z GFS! That is some incredible blocking! Extending all the way up into the arctic circle, watch out if that verifies

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has an arctic front moving through north texas at the end of its run, its not very often you get a triple blocking setup up with a -AO/NAO/ EPO setup, and it looks to last into the first week of march at the very least, fun times ahead

[Stratton20]

Guidance keeps all of the teleconnections negative through about march 10-11th, this could be a long duration cold pattern

[sambucol]

Larry Cosgrove:

It would be wise to do a walk-through on why the weather pattern will be colder than what we have experienced nationally since mid-January. This is not February 2021 redux; rather, it is a more spread-out event that will support perhaps two ice and snow events along the southern and eastern tier of the lower 48 states. I cannot be any more specific than that, but the similarity of the numerical models and analogs is impressive.

Most likely time frame: February 12 – March 7. There could be a small break of moderation involved somewhere. But climatology of -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking scenarios basically involves temperature averages in most of the USA being below normal. And in the case of the south central and Dixie states, well below average.

Storm threats: judging by the 500MB height anomalies on the various models, February 12 – 14 and February 17 – 20. Track probability is greatest along a South Texas – Florida – Nova Scotia arc. The second threat appears to be greater and would involve a good deal of frozen types to the left of the path of the disturbances.

Strongest cold potential: February 16 – 20 from the High Plains to the Gulf and East Coast.

Clues in the synoptic pattern that the cold/snow risks should not be taken lightly: even with so much ridging, a gap in the upper flow is present which will allow for cross-polar flow. Also, note that the Arctic jet stream dips below the Great Lakes with recurrent cAk vortex formation in Ontario, James Bay, and Quebec. Also note the evolution of a storm aloft that gets into Baja California. Very low in latitude, redevelopment should be below the TX Gulf Coast. That trajectory is a colder and wetter one for the Lone Star State, the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard.

[Stratton20]

Im siding with cosgrove with this pattern,I dont expect severe cold with this setup , but their will be cold air coming down, the storm track is very far south, all its going to take is a dynamic system, and if he’s wrong oh well not a big deal, given his great track record i have no reason not to believe what he is seeing

[sambucol]

Im siding with cosgrove with this pattern,I dont expect severe cold with this setup , but their will be cold air coming down, the storm track is very far south, all its going to take is a dynamic system, and if he’s wrong oh well not a big deal, given his great track record i have no reason not to believe what he is seeing

I agree with you.

[Stratton20]

sambucol yeah it just annoys me when folks are so quick to write off a pattern, their is still plenty of evidence in the models that say its coming, below average looks good, not severe cold and im not calling for some big outbreak, but I do believe it will get cold enough to support at least a chance to see something frozen down here

[sambucol]

Yep. Same here. Plus, Larry Cosgrove has a pretty good track record. I’m expecting the cold and possible winter precip in our area.

[Stratton20]

sambucol i think it will get chilly, not too crazy, as for the precip part, all global modes show some sort of system with even the GFS run (12z) had some snow flurries in the houston metro, we have an active sub tropical jet/ storm track, its just a question of if we can time both of those factors just right

[Thundersleet]

Please let the time of all of the factor be right, ripe. Optimistic vibes everyone.

[Thundersleet]

Oh and, in English with all my of the complex meteorology talk if you please.

[Stratton20]

Thundersleet yeah we arent finished yet, models are showing, especially the euro, a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex breaking off and diving down into central canada and eventually the US border, this is something that could drag down some much colder air into the US, but it also will give the models plenty of fits