Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Sambucol yes, the GFS , Euro, and their respective ensembles, although i dont know too much about how to read SSWE’s on guidance,, if you want to have a good read, look up a guy named Judah Cohan on X, he published a free public article talking about this yesterday, very reliable source and has years of research done on the polar vortex and SSWE’s, NOAA mentioned possible SSWE in their 3-4 week outlook so it definitely is catching meteorologists attentions

[sambucol]

I’m not so certain winter is done. With a SSWE, doesn’t that dislodge the cold air sending it into the lower 48?

[Stratton20]

sambucol not all the time, a SSWE can also effect other areas of the world such as asia/ europe, so its not a guarantee that it will effect the us or down here, but if you remember back in january when we got really cold, that was due to.a SSWE occurring, but that was a minor SSWE, this one could be potentially a major SSWE, their is usually a 2 week delay after a SSWE has occurred so we have alot of time to watch and see how this plays out

[sambucol]

In Feb 2021, was there a large SSWE?

[Stratton20]

Yep that is correct, but since this one is headed towards march, it wouldnt be as nuts because its march, however you can still get really cold in march if the SSWE impacts our side of the globe

[sambucol]

Yes it can get really cold in March. I hope we do get another cold front before spring really arrives.

[Stratton20]

sambucol youll like the picture i posted in the march threat if you like cooler/ below average temps!

[sambucol]

Checked it out. Looks good for March with the cooler temps.

[Thundersleet]

Personally, I do not mind if March ends up being below average temperature wise and the same with early and perhaps even mid Spring to delay the Summer heat.

[Thundersleet]

And as KHOU 11 News Chief Meteorologist David Paul would say something like & I quote “let Winter be Winter and each season of the year be itself.

[Stratton20]

Thundersleet couldnt agree more, i don’t care if its 5 degrees below average or 20 below average, anything to delay the awful heat that is happening inevitably coming is highly welcomed!

[sambucol]

Thundersleet couldnt agree more, i don’t care if its 5 degrees below average or 20 below average, anything to delay the awful heat that is happening inevitably coming is highly welcomed!

Yep.

[Stratton20]

Major SSWE should be taking place this week, think this ones the real deal, the 18z GFS shows the Polar Vortex coming back over to our side of the globe during the first week of march, though its not reflected at the surface yet , I think despite the US might get one more big shot of cold weather before we are done

[Ptarmigan]

Thundersleet couldnt agree more, i don’t care if its 5 degrees below average or 20 below average, anything to delay the awful heat that is happening inevitably coming is highly welcomed!

I will take that for sure.

[sambucol]

Yes!!! Bring it!

[Stratton20]

Um what? Im not sure ive ever seen this outlook in march before, looks like maybe a pretty chilly rest of march after this week