![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
Long range model discussion
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The GFS has a strong Hurricane in May in the GoM, the SSTs are fit for something like this! ![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
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The 12z GFS has a 969mb hurricane sitting south of the Texas/Louisiana coastline 5/28.
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cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
Yeah May hurricanes are rare only 4 have been recorded with hurricane Able in 1951 being the strongest at a category3.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 1:18 pm cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
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- captainbarbossa19
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The 12z Euro has a ridge develop over the Great Lakes and east coast in about a week. If something tries to develop to our south, we would likely be in a favorable position for impact.
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Don’t be too surprised if we see something form over in the EPAC and cross over into the SW Caribbean or BOC. Whatever forms would most likely remain very weak.
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Cpv17 I think what the GFS and ensembles are picking up on is that tropical wave that came off from africa, thats what i think is what they are suggesting could develop as it gets into the southern caribbean
This time of the year and into June we see a lot of crossovers from the EPAC and the Euro seems to be favoring the EPAC right now for possible consolidation/genesis if anything comes out of this. Regardless, at least it’s something to watch.
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Lol the 18z GFS had too much whisky![😆](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/1f606.svg)
stalls a cat 4 in the middle of the GOM and just keeps it their haha before eventually heading towards Louisiana
- srainhoutx
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The 12Z ECMWF ensembles suggests the possibility of a Western Caribbean disturbance. We do not discourage discussions of potential tropical mischief on our Forum. There are plenty of folks that monitor our discussions here on Wx Infinity. Carry on...
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Just sayin'
![Image](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022051300/gfs_z850_vort_us_65.png)
![Image](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022051300/gfs_z850_vort_us_65.png)
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12z GEFS continues to signal for some early season development around days 7-9, the GFS operational runs are still pretty crazy, EPS still not that aggressive though, still bears watching as a favorable phase of the MJO and an active CCKW will be passing through during that time, could make things interesting
The GFS Fantasy now slams through Gainesville, FL on May 24.
The latest superblend rainfall anomaly from the UKMET+ECMWF for the August through October time period is favoring the central Gulf states for a lot of rain. The western Gulf and Texas looks high and dry.
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Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt
Yeah I know but with how dry it’s been and the feedback loop were stuck in, it wouldn’t surprise me. I could see that verifying.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 14, 2022 12:23 am Cpv17 that is so far though, id take that with a massive grain of salt
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Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas
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