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Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:31 am
by snowman65
DoctorMu wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:25 am Getting serious for the FL Gulf Coast.
See how this pays out. I have relatives in Gainsville.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:38 am
by DoctorMu
Tampa is going to get spanked.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:21 pm
by Iceresistance
12z CMC has a cold blast with temperatures below freezing near Houston next week.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:48 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance im skeptical on that, seems way roo early for a freeze here

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2022 4:43 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:48 pm Iceresistance im skeptical on that, seems way roo early for a freeze here
It's gone now with a freeze as far south as Northern Mississippi and Alabama

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Oct 15, 2022 1:29 pm
by Stratton20
Their are signs pointing that this winter could potentially be a cold one for Texas, POW Ponder made a youtube video talking about this yesterday, absolutely reliable and it was a really interesting winter outlook.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:33 pm
by Cpv17
Man that’s a massive system the 12z GFS has a days 8-9. Too bad it’ll probably go away.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:48 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 probably will, but models are starting to indicate that a significant trough will drop down unto the western US by the day 7-9 period, something to watch as the GFS has some pretty chilly air behind that system

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2022 2:21 am
by Stratton20
Both the Euro and GFS indicate that a significant trough will dig down into the western US sometimes next week or in the 6-10 day window timeframe, something to watch as this trough looks to have a. pretty chilly airmass behind it

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2022 7:33 am
by Iceresistance
6z GFS has a Sleetstorm for my area near the end of the run, it's that time of the year again.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2022 10:32 am
by Stratton20
Yep, too bad its long range, love seeing those bright purple colors spilling into the US, big arctic blast

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2022 12:58 pm
by Stratton20
We are starting to get hints in the extended long range or 14-16 days that blocking may begin to setup in alaska, this is evident on the GFS 12z 500 mb height anomaly map, towards the end of the run very cold air starts to build up in canada, just something to watch

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:40 am
by Stratton20
LMAO I want whatever the 00z GFS is smoking🤣🤣 almost 2 feet of snow in west texas at the end of the run

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:51 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 wow the 06z GEFS is about the best run ive seen in a while if you like colder weather! Below normal throughout the entire run!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:11 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:51 am Cpv17 wow the 06z GEFS is about the best run ive seen in a while if you like colder weather! Below normal throughout the entire run!
6z GFS has snow for my area in 2 weeks! :D

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:13 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance the 06z GFS gets very close to a winter storm setup at about days 8-10 and then mutliple rounds of arctic air throughout the remainder of its run, what an amazing run!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:01 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:13 am Iceresistance the 06z GFS gets very close to a winter storm setup at about days 8-10 and then mutliple rounds of arctic air throughout the remainder of its run, what an amazing run!
And it was right! Holy cow!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:27 am
by Iceresistance
Ultra-long range 0z CFS has a insane Late December.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:14 pm
by Ptarmigan
Iceresistance wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:27 am Ultra-long range 0z CFS has a insane Late December.
I looked at Tropical Tidbits for 06Z CFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 306&fh=504

It forecasts cold weather around Christmas to New Years.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:24 am
by Cpv17
Things are trending much colder as we get towards mid month. I’m kind of afraid that we might get a cooldown before Christmas and then it warms back up for Christmas. Hopefully with the -NAO locked in, it’ll have staying power.