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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:24 am Things are trending much colder as we get towards mid month. I’m kind of afraid that we might get a cooldown before Christmas and then it warms back up for Christmas. Hopefully with the -NAO locked in, it’ll have staying power.

I’m not. This pattern with this blocking and a lackadaisical, meandering MJO and you get these 3-4 week upper air setups.

I believe Cosgrove and Webb have both said they expect this next cold snap to last until week 2 of January.

That would most likely center the coldest anomalies around Christmas to New Years with the polar front express in high gear.

I think if we’re gonna enter a colder pattern it’s gonna be sometime after the 20th. I see nothing on the models through the 11th that suggests a cooldown is coming. The Aleutian trough looks pretty stubborn and persistent.

Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 pm Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.

If we’re gonna change this pattern we’re gonna need the Pacific to chill out. It’s crashing hard into Cali right now and flooding most of the country with warm air. Record breaking rainfall for Cali and a ridiculous amount of snow out west. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to stop anytime soon either.

It will begin to die down eventually, id say after the 15th the pattern is going to flip again

Long ways out but the GFS is starting to break down the Pacific jet. We’ll see if it’s the start of a trend.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:35 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 pm Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.

These cold blasts start weeks in advance.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:01 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:35 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 pm Actually I do see some hints at a Sudden Stratospheric warming event taking shape, but id say after the 15th or so, but I still believe this warm pattern isnt going to be staying for long

Yeah but there’s usually a pretty decent lag after SSW’s occur so I’m thinking more so after the 20th.

These cold blasts start weeks in advance.

I’ve heard after an SSW there’s a 2-4 week lag before it translates down into the troposphere.

Well good news on the 6z GEFS. It’s finally starting to show some ridging into western Canada and into Alaska but it’s a long ways out so nothing to get excited about yet. Not even close actually but figured it was worth a mention.

Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.

Cpv17 well our last arctic outbreak wasnt due to a SSWE i believe, I can see why he says this one could be more severe,I cant remember if we had a SSWE last winter but the last one I remember was the one in February of 2021, and we know how that played out

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:47 pm Cpv17 well our last arctic outbreak wasnt due to a SSWE i believe, I can see why he says this one could be more severe,I cant remember if we had a SSWE last winter but the last one I remember was the one in February of 2021, and we know how that played out

Yeah, I believe that’s correct. Last year I don’t remember one occurring.

Interestingly, the GEFS and EPS are now both agreeing on ridging into western/northern Canada and into Alaska in about two weeks.

Cpv17 yep! Its going to be a step down process but im definitely starting to like what im seeing in terms of ridging, warm weather lovers days are definitely numbered lol

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.

That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.

That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.

Either here or S2K someone mentioned it (within the last few days) might be historic.

LARGE sigma SSW underway.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:38 pm LARGE sigma SSW underway.

6 right?

I dont know what that means, but im assuming thats pretty significant in regards to the SSWE

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:44 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:38 pm LARGE sigma SSW underway.

6 right?

5-6 sigma

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:51 pm I dont know what that means, but im assuming thats pretty significant in regards to the SSWE

That’s a 5-6 standard deviation