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Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:29 pm
by sambucol
Then this would be historic if it verifies. Larry also mentioned storms:
“ Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”
I’m assuming those storms would be winter storms with the Arctic intrusion.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:40 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:29 pm
Then this would be historic if it verifies. Larry also mentioned storms:
“ Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”
I’m assuming those storms would be winter storms with the Arctic intrusion.
Hard to say for us this far out.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:44 pm
by Ptarmigan
sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:20 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm
Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.
Either here or S2K someone mentioned it (within the last few days) might be historic.
February 1895 and 1899 are freezes in their own class. Same goes with January 1886 or 1930.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:31 pm
by Cpv17
We’re gonna be stuck in this pattern till after the 20th at least. At least that’s what my original thought was and now it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s pushed back till after the 25th.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:41 pm
by Stratton20
The SSWE is hype, its not happening, ensembles look bleak, January as a whole looks like a complete garbage can of a month for weather, this weather pattern sucks, operational models look boring, sigh
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:46 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:41 pm
The SSWE is hype, its not happening, ensembles look bleak, January as a whole looks like a complete garbage can of a month for weather, this weather pattern sucks, operational models look boring, sigh
I wouldn’t give up on winter yet. Late January or February can still produce. Models can flip on a dime. Seen it happen before. Right now we just gotta get this California onslaught to stop before we have a chance of anything here.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:08 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 what im not fully understanding is how models are showing the MJO going back into phase 8 which is a cold phase for us and the eastern US, but yet the ensembles and global models continue to show nothing but above normal weather over the next several weeks, im not sure what to believe
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:09 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:08 pm
Cpv17 what im not fully understanding is how models are showing the MJO going back into phase 8 which is a cold phase for us and the eastern US, but yet the ensembles and global models continue to show nothing but above normal weather over the next several weeks, im not sure what to believe
It’s confusing a lot of people. But all I know is that we won’t ever get any cold as long as Cali keeps getting hammered like this.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:59 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 it does look like the GFS is starting to break it down at around hour 200-240 ish, a reconfiguration of the Jet Stream occurs
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:25 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:59 pm
Cpv17 it does look like the GFS is starting to break it down at around hour 200-240 ish, a reconfiguration of the Jet Stream occurs
Sometimes you can scroll through Twitter and find some good reads. Sounds to me like a -EPO might be returning late January/early Feb. If that’s the case I hope the AO tanks.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:21 am
by Cpv17
I’m continuing to see more support of the California firehose to turn off in about 2-3 weeks. Good sign.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:12 am
by Cpv17
Ensembles are now looking much better after the 20th.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 7:25 pm
by Cpv17
I’m seeing a good amount of support for some colder temps once we get past the 20th but mainly more so after the 25th.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:04 pm
by Stratton20
Im also watching Siberia over the next several weeks as well, cold air is beginning to build again in that region, we just need all the pieces of the puzzle to come together just right, but our warm days are definitely becoming numbered now
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:43 pm
by Cpv17
The GEFS looks good past the 20th! The EPS has some improving to do but it’s not bad either.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:19 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 operational euro run looks decent as well, the flip is coming
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:08 pm
by sswinney
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:04 pm
Im also watching Siberia over the next several weeks as well, cold air is beginning to build again in that region, we just need all the pieces of the puzzle to come together just right, but our warm days are definitely becoming numbered now
There are -80F temps in Siberia
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2023 3:31 pm
by sambucol
That’s colder than it was in December with that cold system.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:18 pm
by Iceresistance
Urgh, I hate it when the Ensemble models (and some OP models) are now trying to go for the SE Ridge, which turns it into the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge . . .
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:25 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance a really cold airmass like on that GFS run can overpower the SE ridge causing it to break down, fingers crossed that wasnt just a one time run