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meh next weekend is looking boring, maybe some modified arctic air, but that darn SE ridge is too close, wont allow the troughs to dig far enough south to produce wintry precipitation, that ridge sucks

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:47 am meh next weekend is looking boring, maybe some modified arctic air, but that darn SE ridge is too close, wont allow the troughs to dig far enough south to produce wintry precipitation, that ridge sucks

Yeah, the AO isn’t cooperating.

Cpv17 though it appears a SSWE is underway, march is looking interesting potentially, Eric and Matt from SCW alluded to it in their article this morning, cant remember the last time we had a cold march, could be an interesting to see what longer range guidance shows

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 11:28 am Cpv17 though it appears a SSWE is underway, march is looking interesting potentially, Eric and Matt from SCW alluded to it in their article this morning, cant remember the last time we had a cold march, could be an interesting to see what longer range guidance shows

I’m hearing late February into March could be on the cold side.

Cpv17 yep! Someone posted the euro weeklies ( not on here)from last night and wow! If thise verify the end of february and most of if not all of march could be pretty darn cold, definitely seeing some colder temps building in the long range GFS, interesting days ahead

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 11:28 am Cpv17 though it appears a SSWE is underway, march is looking interesting potentially, Eric and Matt from SCW alluded to it in their article this morning, cant remember the last time we had a cold march, could be an interesting to see what longer range guidance shows

You're not that old. We had an extremely cold March in the 2014-2015 timeframe. We had ice and snow. In April 2007, I believe, we froze and my hometown of Longview had 7 inches of snow. It was a white Easter Sunday.

Montgomerycowx I wasnt in to weather back then so i guess i never really payed much attention, but thats crazy, i go up to longview a few times a year to visit my grandparents, nice town,, we will just have to see how this SSWE evolves over time

I know its a ways off but can someone try to give me an idea of what the weather/temps (could) be like in mid march in Branson, MO? We will be there on vacation mar 12 -17. Thanks for any help.

Man the OP GFS is really picking up on the SSWE, looks like the 22-24th time frame may be one to watch

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:49 am Man the OP GFS is really picking up on the SSWE, looks like the 22-24th time frame may be one to watch

What does it show for us then? I’ve been sick and not watching much of anything. Getting better though.

sambucol cant go into specifics other than the potential is there for much colder weather sometime around the 23th and beyond, even march is starting to look like it could be cold, you will probably see some crazy runs of the GFS going around on social media going forward, these SSWE’s are pretty hard for the models to catch on to

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 11, 2023 2:18 pm sambucol cant go into specifics other than the potential is there for much colder weather sometime around the 23th and beyond, even march is starting to look like it could be cold, you will probably see some crazy runs of the GFS going around on social media going forward, these SSWE’s are pretty hard for the models to catch on to

The CPC has above average temps for us during that timeframe lol

Cpv17 im definitely not buying that, the GEFS and EPS are colder, even the normally warm op Euro is trending colder, I dont expect the CPC to trend colder immediately, that i think they will over time, or I could just be completely wrong, either way hard to ignore all that cold air building up to our north in the ensembles

Also the SE Ridge is going to be a big factor here, it could help us or hurt us in regard to the cold, lots of moving players here

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 11, 2023 2:45 pm Cpv17 im definitely not buying that, the GEFS and EPS are colder, even the normally warm op Euro is trending colder, I dont expect the CPC to trend colder immediately, that i think they will over time, or I could just be completely wrong, either way hard to ignore all that cold air building up to our north in the ensembles

Also the SE Ridge is going to be a big factor here, it could help us or hurt us in regard to the cold, lots of moving players here

Yeah, the CPC looks to be thinking -PNA. Hardly any cold air east of the Rockies.

Cpv17 im hearing the PNA might go neutral to slightly positive after the 20th or so, challenging forecast ahead as usual, but that operational GFS, has kinda got my attention at least somewhat haha

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 11, 2023 3:06 pm Cpv17 im hearing the PNA might go neutral to slightly positive after the 20th or so, challenging forecast ahead as usual, but that operational GFS, has kinda got my attention at least somewhat haha

For now I’d bet against any cold unless it shows it within 5-7 days but that’s good the ensembles look good. Not sure if they do or not. Just taking your word for it. I haven’t really been paying much attention to the models the past couple weeks. My hearts just not into it that much lately. Probably heard too many times about cold air coming and nothing has ever really happened of significance. Kinda over it at this point. Probably why I’m not paying much attention anymore.

Cpv17 I mean the euro weeklies are showing cold air extending into the first couple weeks of march, so their definitely is plenty of evidence that winter* probably* isnt over yet, but i totally understand , this winter has been fairly uneventful so far, could be a lot worse though, at least the SE ridge hasnt been sitting over us like it has along the east coast all winter, heck NYC has only recorded like 0.5 inch of snow this season, definitely could be a lot worse

If I recall correctly, Larry Cosgrove had mentioned a while back that cold would go into March.

sambucol that is correct and now guidance is starting to hint at thag

Global models are beginning to get very interesting, the GFS, CMC and Euro all have a baja upper level low moving across the desert southwest and into texas by the 21st, obviously far out, but its interesting to see they show this, they also have some arctic air to work with potentially, cant say anything more than just speculation, but it could be an interesting week ahead