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I think eventually we’ll get something to form in the western Caribbean but I don’t think it’s going to be from this. Look for something maybe in the second week of June.

Looks like the gfs is going to produce a tropical system every run and the tracks everywhere in the Gulf. Phantom systems since the time is always very late in the model.

I wouldnt worry about the GFS, most model guidance buries whatever tries to form into central america, though you can never say 100% that it cant get into the gulf so ill just keep a weary eye just in case something changes , the background environment is not very favorable yet, but even a weak sloppy system can be a prolific rain maker

I haven't been over to S2K yet, but there's a lot of gyre conversation around, focusing on the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean.

DoctorMU based on what im seeing, their are a few EPS and GEFS members that do try to get something going in the BOC, but most keep whatever tries to form near central america

If anything comes of this, it’ll probably be in the EPAC.

Interesting read for anyone that wants to read it.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html

Cpv17 I saw that, definitely could be scary

12z CMC sniffing out a weak area of low pressure next weekend? Could be from the tropical wave in the S.Caribbean, created a GIF to show this

Long range EPS and GEFS are in agreement that we might need to watch the western Caribbean in the first week of June.

Cpv17 yep looks like the environment might be more favorable, will have to watch and “sea”

12z GEFS, the 29th-1st time period we may need to watch for a potential spin up

00z Euro tries to spin up some tropical mischief around day 10, we will see

12z Euro has a weak depression/storm in the BOC late next weekend, 12z EPS starting to sniff out as well

Mid to late June we may need to watch the tropics.

Cpv17 yep GEFS and GEPS agree with that

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:07 pm Cpv17 yep GEFS and GEPS agree with that

It’s appearing to me that the western Gulf may be open for business in about 2 weeks from now.

Cpv17 what are you seeing that may indicate that?

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:08 pm Cpv17 what are you seeing that may indicate that?

Long range ensembles are hinting at possible ridging developing over the southeast which would push any tc towards the western Gulf. Latest CPC 3-4 week forecast agrees with this as well.



At the same timeframe the GEFS is showing this:

Interesting! Guess we will see how this evolves over the next 10-12 days