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Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:10 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 10:58 am
CMC puts us in the ICE age lol thats a brutally cold run for se texas
Damn crazy uncle! Lol it could happen though in all seriousness.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:11 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 and then the GFS barely shows anything
I think we know who is fighting a losing battle here in the model world lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:14 am
by TexasBreeze
That's the thing the cold is too cold- makes it a dry cold.
Until the models agree and settle, moods on s2k will be very unsettled! They were happy yesterday then sad this morning there!
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:29 am
by Cpv17
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:14 am
That's the thing the cold is too cold- makes it a dry cold.
Until the models agree and settle, moods on s2k will be very unsettled! They were happy yesterday then sad this morning there!
Give me temps in the mid to upper 20’s with snow vs temps in the teens with no snow. That’s for dang sure lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:58 am
by Pas_Bon
With all the meteorological extremes we have seen in the last, say, 10-20 years, not much would shock me, but seeing a forecast calling for temps to be
FIFTY to SEVENTY degrees lower than climatological average (especially in the Rockies) has me very leery about the accuracy of said modeling in this particular case.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:27 am
by Cpv17
Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:58 am
With all the meteorological extremes we have seen in the last, say, 10-20 years, not much would shock me, but seeing a forecast calling for temps to be
FIFTY to SEVENTY degrees lower than climatological average (especially in the Rockies) has me very leery about the accuracy of said modeling in this particular case.
I think in this case it could be a possibility if a lobe of the PV actually does head that direction. But I know what you mean. It’s hard to believe. Some of the model runs I’ve seen have had parts of MT approaching -80°F.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:38 am
by Cpv17
The 6z GFS has wintry precip all the way down to the RGV in about 10-11 days. Interesting run.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:50 pm
by DoctorMu
Look for an ULL or coastal low around Jan 18 to pull a potential surprise if the cold air lingers.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:53 pm
by DoctorMu
Canadian still being Canadian...
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:20 pm
by Ptarmigan
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:53 pm
Canadian still being Canadian...
If that was to happen, that would be on par with January 1886 or January 1930 freeze.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:38 pm
by DoctorMu
Props to CMC for hanging in there until the bitter end.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:53 pm
by Stratton20
The 21-22nd is looking interesting on guidance as well
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:15 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:53 pm
The 21-22nd is looking interesting on guidance as well
I’ve been trying to tell y’all this lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:21 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:15 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:53 pm
The 21-22nd is looking interesting on guidance as well
I’ve been trying to tell y’all this lol
Mexican s/w surprise?
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:26 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 oh no ive been seeing it, i just figured we keep it quiet until the first event is over lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:50 pm
by Stratton20
Really aggressive signal from the GEPS lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:54 pm
by Harp1
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:50 pm
Really aggressive signal from the GEPS lol
For which region?
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:56 pm
by Stratton20
Harp1 Texas, but take it with a grain of salt, its 8-9 days out lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:44 pm
by Stratton20
Brief relaxation period after this , pattern looks to reload as the ridge reestablishes itself over alaska in the 11-16 day period, looks like end of january into all of February looks very cold
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 2:00 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:44 pm
Brief relaxation period after this , pattern looks to reload as the ridge reestablishes itself over alaska in the 11-16 day period, looks like end of january into all of February looks very cold
I’m already looking forward to that. This current system is dead boring news to me already.
I think we know who is fighting a losing battle here in the model world lol