Long range model discussion
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FWIW the 12Z ICON for the first time now shows the disturbance in the NW Caribbean the GFS has been developing late next week.It also shows the tropical storm off the Carolinas that the GFS has been developing.Thats a little support for the GFS now, lets see if the CMC and EURO pick up on anything.
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Ive seen alot of crazy long range GFS runs but tonights 00z run takes the cake, stalls a category 4 just offshore the texas coast for several days with hurricane force winds along the coast, just fantasyland, though it does start development this phantom storm in the caribbean at hour 192 so its starting development time frame isnt too far out
- captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10.
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- captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro has a system developing in the Caribbean by days 9 and 10. Looks the ridge starts to flatten out over us about that time too. I think that development is quite possible due to anomalous westerlies in the MDR and Caribbean.
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The CMC, UKMET, ICON, and Euro all show potential development in the MDR. The GFS is the only model not showing anything..go figure.
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Cpv17 thats kind of ironic if you ask me , but this is interesting, the latest EPS guidance over the next 9-10 days came out and beaides that wave in the MDR it has a 10-20% probability of potential development in the northern gulf, obviously low but given the history that the EPS is just as conservative as its operational run in terms of showing any signs of development, it certainly is interesting
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Yep it shows a weak surface low developing and moving west into Texas around the southern periphery of high pressure.GFS develops a surface trough/low also but has it forming further north and east in the southeast instead.Would be nice to get some rain but not getting my hopes up...LOL
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Don at least on the Euro run , kinda looks similar to how barry formed, but fingers crossed, anything that could bring us rain (not too much of course) is appreciated
Yep another good example of such a pattern would be Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008.
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- captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro ensembles are quite determined that we will have a storm in the Caribbean next week. Some even show a potential hurricane. If this happens, we are going to be in a for a very long show this season.
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