June 2022

[djmike]

That would suck if it went into south texas and we got nothing. Qpf just took away my 2” down to 1” and now seems any decent totals remains offshore. Next thing we’ll see is 100s back all week at this rate. Lol

[captainbarbossa19]

That would suck if it went into south texas and we got nothing. Qpf just took away my 2” down to 1” and now seems any decent totals remains offshore. Next thing we’ll see is 100s back all week at this rate. Lol

Mesoscale models are already indicating that we will get storms later today and tomorrow. Global models are not always the best at showing local rainfall totals. There's going to be lots of moisture and instability and that's what matters the most.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS pretty much agrees whatever tries to spin up generally will take a similar track to what Don drew is his previous post, even a few members with a low 1000 to sub 1000 Mb tropical storm, we will see, the 12z GEFS is more clustered about a westward movement into the corpus christi area

[don]

That would suck if it went into south texas and we got nothing. Qpf just took away my 2” down to 1” and now seems any decent totals remains offshore. Next thing we’ll see is 100s back all week at this rate. Lol

Mesoscale models are already indicating that we will get storms later today and tomorrow. Global models are not always the best at showing local rainfall totals. There's going to be lots of moisture and instability and that's what matters the most.

The 18Z HRRR is looking nice for rainfall tomorrow and Tuesday. It shows some isolated spots getting 5-6 inches of rain.Keep in mind this rainfall is NOT associated with the tropical system but with the stalled frontal boundary and disturbances moving through the area. It also has the tropical low getting close to becoming Tropical Depression at the end of its run.

The GFS ensembles also show the northern turn i was referring too earlier.

[Stratton20]

I have an exam on Thursday and I wouldnt mind have a tropical system cancel that, all jokes aside this will be interesting to see how this all evolves over the next 48 hours or so

[DoctorMu]

I hope that major area of rainfall expands to share that wealth. 1 inch of rain will go straight in the cracks in my yard and dissappear.

Wait till the mesoscale models come into range.

Not looking great through Tuesday so far. HRRR is one of the more optimistic.

At least there will be clouds and a bit cooler.

[Stratton20]

18z ICON rides the texas coast like its previous run but gets very close to a galveston landfall, FWIW it also is slightly stronger with the system than its previous run, about 2 mb lower, definitely a tropical storm on this run

[don]

Yep it has it making landfall near Galveston.Could be a weak tropical storm in this run.

[don]

18Z RGEM also showing TC development again after dropping development in its 12Z run earlier today.Looks like the storm is heading towards South Texas and then the trough in the plains starts to pick it up and it starts taking the turn north towards the middle Texas coast at the end of its run.

[Cpv17]

Hard pass on that ICON. Would be great for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana though.

[don]

18Z GFS has a Tropical depression or weak storm riding the coast from South Texas to the middle Texas coast.

[davidiowx]

Glad to see rain chances on the rise, Heck at this point just bring some clouds to the this blow torch off my plants, grass, trees, roof, truck, etc.

Have to imagine fireworks are not happening if we don’t get some good rains this coming week.

[captainbarbossa19]

Hard pass on that ICON. Would be great for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana though.

18z GFS is a really good run. Shows the low moving in just south of Corpus Christi and moving slowly north. It looks like there is good consensus now that the low that forms will turn in a northerly direction after moving onshore. The trend is really good for us.

[Stratton20]

Something to watch is how quickly the Low moves in and out of our area , while a slowing moving system would be great for breaking the drought, we also know that slow moving systems are notorious for creating flooding rains, absolutely not saying thays going to be the case here, but seeing that big bullseye by the Euro is definitely worth watching giving this low will be in our vicinity at least until friday

[Stratton20]

NHC 8 pm update, not a huge change besides giving this disturbance a 10% to develop in the next 2 days lol

[Cromagnum]

Getting feisty in the golden Triangle. Hope it keeps trucking west.

[davidiowx]

Tends of the potential low developing SW drops our rain chances to more coastline in nature. Nobody knows until it actually develops. Hope we get some good soaking in the next 36 hours.

[djmike]

Looks like Im about to get trampled on by some doozy storms here in Beaumont. Just got really dark and hearing thunder. No rain yet. Nice treat after reaching 101 today on the ol thermostat.

[Cpv17]

Tends of the potential low developing SW drops our rain chances to more coastline in nature. Nobody knows until it actually develops. Hope we get some good soaking in the next 36 hours.

If the track of the Euro verifies I think most of us will all get some good rains. That nne trajectory of the last GFS isn’t good.

[djmike]

Some reports of power outages and hail north of Beaumont