June 2022
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
A good read from Travis Herzog regarding the GFS spinning uo fantasy storms, drives me crazy when someone post a single model run of the GFS in fantasy land) on social media without looking at the time stamp lol, like this mornings 06z run has a near cat 3 hitting the upper texas coast at hour 360, unfortunately I can guarantee some knucklehead is going to post that on social media
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So much for those meager rain chances today.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 171126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
Mix of VFR to MVFR conditions through 15Z this morning, then,
mostly VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF
period. Chance of -SHRA this morning mainly over the local waters
and coastal regions, occasionally moving in and around GLS, LBX,
HOU, and SGR. Chance of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon across portions
of SE TX (especially along the sea breeze) as a weak shortwave
moves through. Chance of rain will end around sunset. SE winds at
5-10 KTS today, turning light and VRB tonight.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...
For today, some isolated to scattered showers moving from the
waters into areas south of the I-10 corridor can be expect during
the morning hours. Then, there is a chance that additional
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms could develop across
portions of Southeast TX (especially along the bay/sea breeze) in
the afternoon to evening as a weak mid level shortwave moves
through. Hopefully, with the rain and a little more cloud cover,
temperatures will be a few degrees lower today. However, max
temperatures are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s for
inland portions and in the low to mid 90s along the coasts along
with heat indicies in the low to mid 100s. Thus, please continue
to practice heat safety while working or spending time outdoors.
Remember to hydrate often, use sunscreen, take breaks from the
sun, stay in shaded areas if possible, and be aware of heat
stress. Also, never leave children or pets inside your car...look
before you lock!
For Saturday, high pressure will mostly limit shower development,
though one or two could form during the daytime hours. Max
temperatures will increase back into the upper 90s to 100
unfortunately, and with light variable winds expected, it will
definitely feel very hot outside. Though afternoon mixing may be
enough to keep heat indicies in the low to mid 100s, some spots
may experience indicies of 105-107 degrees. Thus, continue to
take extra precaution this weekend if you plan to spend time
outdoors or in the beaches.
24
LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Omega blocking will continue across the CONUS with the mid to upper
level ridge holding throughout the weekend. Temperatures will remain
in the mid to upper 90s and occasionally break triple digits through
next week. Heat indicies will peak around 105F, so remember to
practiced heat safety wherever you are. A weak boundary spanning
across Louisiana and East Texas could bring showers on Sunday,
though with strong ridging aloft chances are that the EURO solution
will win out and keep things dry.
Temperature may drop a degree or two early next week as the mid to
upper level ridge flattens out. A few coastal showers could also
develop on Thursday as moisture increases in response to unsettled
weather over the Southwestern Gulf. Near the end of next week, the
upper level ridge will begin to rebuild across the CONUS, allowing
temperatures to climb up a degree or two. Expect hot weather to
continue for the foreseeable future.
03
Marine...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the coast Today.
Sea/land breeze bring 5-15 kt winds over the next few days bringing
calmer seas and smooth bay waters. A few isolated showers may
develop over the Gulf waters on Tuesday in response to some
unsettled weather over the Southwestern Gulf.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 99 74 101 / 20 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 98 76 101 / 30 10 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 81 94 / 30 0 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term/Fire Weather/Aviation...24
Long Term/Marine...03
FXUS64 KHGX 171126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
Mix of VFR to MVFR conditions through 15Z this morning, then,
mostly VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF
period. Chance of -SHRA this morning mainly over the local waters
and coastal regions, occasionally moving in and around GLS, LBX,
HOU, and SGR. Chance of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon across portions
of SE TX (especially along the sea breeze) as a weak shortwave
moves through. Chance of rain will end around sunset. SE winds at
5-10 KTS today, turning light and VRB tonight.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...
For today, some isolated to scattered showers moving from the
waters into areas south of the I-10 corridor can be expect during
the morning hours. Then, there is a chance that additional
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms could develop across
portions of Southeast TX (especially along the bay/sea breeze) in
the afternoon to evening as a weak mid level shortwave moves
through. Hopefully, with the rain and a little more cloud cover,
temperatures will be a few degrees lower today. However, max
temperatures are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s for
inland portions and in the low to mid 90s along the coasts along
with heat indicies in the low to mid 100s. Thus, please continue
to practice heat safety while working or spending time outdoors.
Remember to hydrate often, use sunscreen, take breaks from the
sun, stay in shaded areas if possible, and be aware of heat
stress. Also, never leave children or pets inside your car...look
before you lock!
For Saturday, high pressure will mostly limit shower development,
though one or two could form during the daytime hours. Max
temperatures will increase back into the upper 90s to 100
unfortunately, and with light variable winds expected, it will
definitely feel very hot outside. Though afternoon mixing may be
enough to keep heat indicies in the low to mid 100s, some spots
may experience indicies of 105-107 degrees. Thus, continue to
take extra precaution this weekend if you plan to spend time
outdoors or in the beaches.
24
LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Omega blocking will continue across the CONUS with the mid to upper
level ridge holding throughout the weekend. Temperatures will remain
in the mid to upper 90s and occasionally break triple digits through
next week. Heat indicies will peak around 105F, so remember to
practiced heat safety wherever you are. A weak boundary spanning
across Louisiana and East Texas could bring showers on Sunday,
though with strong ridging aloft chances are that the EURO solution
will win out and keep things dry.
Temperature may drop a degree or two early next week as the mid to
upper level ridge flattens out. A few coastal showers could also
develop on Thursday as moisture increases in response to unsettled
weather over the Southwestern Gulf. Near the end of next week, the
upper level ridge will begin to rebuild across the CONUS, allowing
temperatures to climb up a degree or two. Expect hot weather to
continue for the foreseeable future.
03
Marine...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the coast Today.
Sea/land breeze bring 5-15 kt winds over the next few days bringing
calmer seas and smooth bay waters. A few isolated showers may
develop over the Gulf waters on Tuesday in response to some
unsettled weather over the Southwestern Gulf.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 99 74 101 / 20 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 98 76 101 / 30 10 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 81 94 / 30 0 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term/Fire Weather/Aviation...24
Long Term/Marine...03
Rain chances up to 40% on TWC app from 3-6pm.
The TWC app giveth, and just like that taketh away. Zero. Nada.
We’ll see what happens with heating but so far the sea breeze looks like weak sauce. Nothing like it was in Louisiana the last couple of days.
We’ll see what happens with heating but so far the sea breeze looks like weak sauce. Nothing like it was in Louisiana the last couple of days.
Pouring in Beaumont! 78 degrees! Hallelujah!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Nice!! So far not much around here…
55% chance of a named storm in Galveston. 33% chance of a hurricane. Serious prog.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:33 pm So according to CSU's probability table of tropical cyclone impacts, Matagorda County has a 53% chance of seeing a tropical cyclone impact this year. The normal chance is 32%. It also has a 31% chance of seeing a hurricane impact when the normal chance is 17%.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu that definitely raises quite a few eye brows, we will see
Nice to see.
There are popups near I-45 and Huntsville, moving west...but I don't think we'll get that lucky. At least there are puffy cumulus clouds blocking the sun occasionally.
Glad Eastern Texas is getting something. We don't have a prayer here in Brazoria county.
Yawn. Where is the table that shows how accurate predictions like this are?DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 5:10 pm55% chance of a named storm in Galveston. 33% chance of a hurricane. Serious prog.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:33 pm So according to CSU's probability table of tropical cyclone impacts, Matagorda County has a 53% chance of seeing a tropical cyclone impact this year. The normal chance is 32%. It also has a 31% chance of seeing a hurricane impact when the normal chance is 17%.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html
From the NWS AFD this afternoon:
On a different note...
So it time to say goodbye to the NWS, today is my last day and I
get to go out with a seabreeze and some much needed rain with the
storms on the radar.
I started here at HGX in 1993 and have been through a few
events…just a few. Oct ’94 flood and my introduction to a
tropical steady state MCS, TS Allison, Ike, Imelda, Harvey and
50+ inches of rain – who forecasts that (well we did), tornado
outbreaks, hazmat incidents, oil spills and the 2011 drought, oh
the list just goes on. Disasters just seem to happen more often
down here in Southeast Texas – maybe it is all that water vapor
in the air. What I can safely say is the science has come a long
way from the days of the LFM, and calling to get daily river and
lake observations with a wire weight to today with the abundance
of convective allowing high res models, social media, webinars,
ensemble and probabilistic forecasts, flood inundation mapping and
the technology to make these accessible and useful has made leaps
and bounds (with a few hiccups). What I can see on my phone today
with radar and weather sites boggles my mind at times. What has
really become a focus is how the weather impact us, and in that
regard the leaps forward the NWS has made has been a sight to
behold. I can’t say I was first on the bandwagon but it is what
we are all about now. Forecasting the weather comes first and then
dealing with it when it arrives has been something that really
makes this work fun - and hard to call it a job as a weather nerd.
The meteorologists and technicians that I have had the pleasure
to work with here at HGX and across the NWS have been a highlight
of my career, some of the brightest, sharpest minds open to
discussion and the leaning in, willing to take on a challenge and
make it work, at times under some trying conditions. Learning from
my co-workers every day about the next new thing and science of
refining what we know and how weather works. I have had some great
mentors and have been one as well – thanks! Supporting
emergency managers, firefighters, mayors, pilots, EMS, USCG, TV
meteorologists, HCFCD and the public that need weather information
to make decisions and after years of outreach and education and
collaboration recognize that weather is a science but not an exact
one yet and that is where that collaboration comes out shining.
It really takes a team to make the weather enterprise work. I have
been honored to be here through it with all of you.
Get out and enjoy the weather and keep looking up.
45 - Prochazka Out
On a different note...
So it time to say goodbye to the NWS, today is my last day and I
get to go out with a seabreeze and some much needed rain with the
storms on the radar.
I started here at HGX in 1993 and have been through a few
events…just a few. Oct ’94 flood and my introduction to a
tropical steady state MCS, TS Allison, Ike, Imelda, Harvey and
50+ inches of rain – who forecasts that (well we did), tornado
outbreaks, hazmat incidents, oil spills and the 2011 drought, oh
the list just goes on. Disasters just seem to happen more often
down here in Southeast Texas – maybe it is all that water vapor
in the air. What I can safely say is the science has come a long
way from the days of the LFM, and calling to get daily river and
lake observations with a wire weight to today with the abundance
of convective allowing high res models, social media, webinars,
ensemble and probabilistic forecasts, flood inundation mapping and
the technology to make these accessible and useful has made leaps
and bounds (with a few hiccups). What I can see on my phone today
with radar and weather sites boggles my mind at times. What has
really become a focus is how the weather impact us, and in that
regard the leaps forward the NWS has made has been a sight to
behold. I can’t say I was first on the bandwagon but it is what
we are all about now. Forecasting the weather comes first and then
dealing with it when it arrives has been something that really
makes this work fun - and hard to call it a job as a weather nerd.
The meteorologists and technicians that I have had the pleasure
to work with here at HGX and across the NWS have been a highlight
of my career, some of the brightest, sharpest minds open to
discussion and the leaning in, willing to take on a challenge and
make it work, at times under some trying conditions. Learning from
my co-workers every day about the next new thing and science of
refining what we know and how weather works. I have had some great
mentors and have been one as well – thanks! Supporting
emergency managers, firefighters, mayors, pilots, EMS, USCG, TV
meteorologists, HCFCD and the public that need weather information
to make decisions and after years of outreach and education and
collaboration recognize that weather is a science but not an exact
one yet and that is where that collaboration comes out shining.
It really takes a team to make the weather enterprise work. I have
been honored to be here through it with all of you.
Get out and enjoy the weather and keep looking up.
45 - Prochazka Out
Man I need to go buy a lottery ticket today. Two storms in one day in Beaumont.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z GFS Hinting at some tropical mischief in the NW Caribbean around the 23rd-25th time frame, could be something their to watch or could just be the typical GFS spinning up phantom systems, will see
Well unfortunately we didn’t get anything from this round. Everything is quickly drying out. Looks like I’ll be watering like crazy for awhile.
Wow big blowup near Lake Conroe. So the line fires northwest of me. Figures.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
jasons2k its like mother nature has a grudge against you lol, all the rain seems to just bypass you’re area most of the time haha
A few rogue cells drifting toward Brazos Co. Lucy is setting the football as I expect these to die out in the next 30 min.
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As expected the storm is dying about 5 miles south of us.