June 2022

[Rip76]

Storms starting to pop around the area now.

[don]

Yep the scattered storms the HRRR was showing are now popping up

[Rip76]

It must be a miracle. I’m hearing Thunder, and my A/C shut off on its own.

[Cpv17]

I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay

I hope it comes in around Port O’Connor.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS guidance

[captainbarbossa19]

12z EPS guidance

Interesting, almost all the ensemble members start the turn well before it reaches the south Texas coast.

[Cromagnum]

Storms starting to pop around the area now.

Hope more pop east of there they are now. Could see the downpour from the house but missed west. So freaking lame.

[don]

18Z HRRR turns the system into a Tropical Storm.

[don]

Big shift west on the 18Z ICON.Now has a landfall of a weak tropical storm around Matagorda. Looks more in line with the other models now.

[DoctorMu]

I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay

I hope it comes in around Port O’Connor.

It's a 100°F in CLL (so much for the cool-off)...and cells continue to lurk and drift west, just south of os. Congrats to those getting rain! There's a significant easterly breeze. Unfortunately it's not a cooling breeze.

[DoctorMu]

Big shift west on the 18Z ICON.Now has a landfall of a weak tropical storm around Matagorda. Looks more in line with the other models now.

Then go North to Northwest!

[captainbarbossa19]

This system sure isn't going to be moving fast. It takes from Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning for the low to get to NE Texas on the Euro.

[DoctorMu]

The EURO shows some nice rainfall totals from the system.

:pray

That would be nice!

[DoctorMu]

Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…

At least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.

Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.

No rain in a month here.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 yep a slower system would be beneficial but also the flooding potential would also go up

[DoctorMu]

102°F with winds N20 G30. How is that even possible? lol.

[Cromagnum]

102°F with winds N20 G30. How is that even possible? lol.

Dang. Blow dryer.

[DoctorMu]

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

That's really close for today's rain distribution.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z GFS is stronger and further north than 12z.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 i dont see much of a difference on this run