Meanwhile, back home....
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
VFR conditions currently across Southeast TX terminals today with
S-SE winds at 10-15 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS on occasion.
Expect a mix of VFR to MVFR cigs overnight with winds decreasing
to 3-8 KTS. There is a chance for patchy fog to develop
overnight, in particular from 10-14Z, but confidence is low at
this time and have not included it in this TAF set. Fog, if any,
will burn off shortly after sunrise. As the morning progresses,
cigs will gradually rise and scatter out. S winds at around 5-10
KTS on Thu.
24
&&
June 2022
Dang. Any chance of rain is out of the forecast for the foreseeable future. Nuthin' but 100s as far as the eye can see.
Shades (so to speak) of 2011.
Shades (so to speak) of 2011.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu I saw a post by someone on facebook that I believe near the big bend area they hit a high temperature of 117 (confirmed by that areas NWS office) yesterday, don’t remember the town name though, for early June that is some serious heat
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Still not quite as dry yet, but it's getting bad. I am not convinced that if anything tries to move this way, it will pull a Don. 1961 was very dry too and featured Carla in September.
In terms of size and intensity, Carla was the most powerful hurricane to hit the US coast. See the Impact Weather scale.
This isn’t like 2011 yet. Most lakes and ponds are still doing OK.
I did hit 102 though…
This isn’t like 2011 yet. Most lakes and ponds are still doing OK.
I did hit 102 though…
Not yet. But we started seeing 100°F+ in early June just like this year, and the Death Ridge did not give up its grip until September. Too many trees died in 2011-2013.
Off to provide them water and feed now.
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captainbarbossa19
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- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Right. I remember lakes being very low in February 2011. Drought during that time really started in fall 2010. I'm hoping June will be really hot, but then the pattern will turn wet later this summer. Otherwise, it's going to be brutal.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Good grief the 00z GFS is drunk, cat 4 into brownsville 
the GFS scaricane strikes again!
the GFS scaricane strikes again!Lol now it’s showing probably a cat 2 into Tampa Bay. Basically skirts the entire west coast of FL. What will the 12z show?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 12:28 am Good grief the 00z GFS is drunk, cat 4 into brownsville
At this point, it's going to take a tropical system to give us any shot at rain. 2011 all over again.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 091145
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Isolated patchy fog will taper off over the next few hours, with
VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Light southwest winds will
develop this morning, with a south to southeast wind of around 10
knots developing behind the advancing sea/bay breezes later this
afternoon. Winds relax overnight, becoming light and variable with
the potential for MVFR cigs increasing by the early morning
hours.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
The remainder of the week will continue to be characterized by hot
and humid weather as daily high temperatures reach or exceed the
triple digit mark in some locations by Friday. Mid/upper ridge
remains the prevailing synoptic feature over the Southern Plains and
Western Gulf Coast as global models continue to indicate 500mb
heights in excess of 590dam through the remainder of the short term
period. With broad surface high pressure remaining in place over the
Western Gulf, moderate onshore flow will allow for persistent
WAA/low-level moisture transport to continue. Gradual increases in
high temperature remain the story through the remainder of the week,
with most inland locations today reaching the upper 90s while
tomorrow locations northwest of the Houston metro area are expected
to exceed 100. Coastal locations continue to see highs in the lower
to mid 90s, while area-wide lows remain in the upper 70s to lower
80s. While fairly strong afternoon mixing should still allow for dew
points to remain low enough keep us below Heat Advisory criteria
today with heat indicies in the 100-106 range, heat index values
tomorrow are expected to be slightly higher and as such we
anticipate the issuance of a Heat Advisory that will likely continue
well into the weekend.
Heat safety remains critical over the next several days. A little-
known fact is that excessive heat is the number one weather-related
cause of death in the U.S. each year. With this being an early-
season heat event with lower amounts of heat acclimation among the
population, taking protective actions like remaining hydrated and
ensuring time for ample rest if outdoors will be extremely
important. Additionally, it is critical to never leave a child or
pet in a locked car- look before you lock!
Cady
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
The heat will continue over the weekend with near record high temperatures
both days ranging from the low 90s at the coast to 100-104 inland. These
readings in combination with the persistently high dewpoints and low
level southwest winds will bring our heat index values to around or
slightly above 108 degrees likely requiring a continuation of the Heat
Advisory. The strong mid level ridge helping to bring our area the heat
will persist through at least the first half of next week. However,
the warmer low level southwest winds over the weekend are expected to
become a bit more southerly next week, and this might end up being just
enough of a change to drop us below the advisory level heat index values.
As stated many many times, all heat safety precautions should continue
to be taken whether or not a Heat Advisory is in effect. At this time,
deepening tropical Gulf moisture and associated rains toward end of
next week look to remain well south of our area.
Wondering what our rainfall totals for the year look like?
City of College Station`s 15.46 inches is 2.92 inches below normal.
City of Houston`s 19.82 inches is 0.92 inches below normal.
Houston Hobby`s 11.28 inches is 10.04 inches below normal.
City of Galveston`s 9.56 inches is 5.96 inches below normal.
42
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds can be expected through
Monday night. Caution flags might be needed in the Friday night through
Monday night time period when a sometimes tightening pressure gradient
could bring slightly higher winds to parts of the area.
42
.CLIMATE...
For the third consecutive day (June 6-8), Galveston set new
record high minimum temperature records with lows of 83, 83 and
84 degrees. Yesterday`s 84 degrees was only one degree off of the
all-time record high minimum temperature record for June of 85
degrees last set in 2021. Galveston`s average temperature so far
this month (June 1-8) is 85.9 degrees which is 3.4 degrees above
normal and ranks as the warmest June 1-8 on record (second place
is 85.5 degrees set in 2008). Galveston`s June records date back
to 1874.
Houston Hobby jumped on the June temperature record wagon yesterday
by setting a new record high of 97 degrees. This tied the old
record of 97 set back in 1948. Hobby`s June records date back to
1931.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 93 83 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 091145
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Isolated patchy fog will taper off over the next few hours, with
VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Light southwest winds will
develop this morning, with a south to southeast wind of around 10
knots developing behind the advancing sea/bay breezes later this
afternoon. Winds relax overnight, becoming light and variable with
the potential for MVFR cigs increasing by the early morning
hours.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
The remainder of the week will continue to be characterized by hot
and humid weather as daily high temperatures reach or exceed the
triple digit mark in some locations by Friday. Mid/upper ridge
remains the prevailing synoptic feature over the Southern Plains and
Western Gulf Coast as global models continue to indicate 500mb
heights in excess of 590dam through the remainder of the short term
period. With broad surface high pressure remaining in place over the
Western Gulf, moderate onshore flow will allow for persistent
WAA/low-level moisture transport to continue. Gradual increases in
high temperature remain the story through the remainder of the week,
with most inland locations today reaching the upper 90s while
tomorrow locations northwest of the Houston metro area are expected
to exceed 100. Coastal locations continue to see highs in the lower
to mid 90s, while area-wide lows remain in the upper 70s to lower
80s. While fairly strong afternoon mixing should still allow for dew
points to remain low enough keep us below Heat Advisory criteria
today with heat indicies in the 100-106 range, heat index values
tomorrow are expected to be slightly higher and as such we
anticipate the issuance of a Heat Advisory that will likely continue
well into the weekend.
Heat safety remains critical over the next several days. A little-
known fact is that excessive heat is the number one weather-related
cause of death in the U.S. each year. With this being an early-
season heat event with lower amounts of heat acclimation among the
population, taking protective actions like remaining hydrated and
ensuring time for ample rest if outdoors will be extremely
important. Additionally, it is critical to never leave a child or
pet in a locked car- look before you lock!
Cady
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
The heat will continue over the weekend with near record high temperatures
both days ranging from the low 90s at the coast to 100-104 inland. These
readings in combination with the persistently high dewpoints and low
level southwest winds will bring our heat index values to around or
slightly above 108 degrees likely requiring a continuation of the Heat
Advisory. The strong mid level ridge helping to bring our area the heat
will persist through at least the first half of next week. However,
the warmer low level southwest winds over the weekend are expected to
become a bit more southerly next week, and this might end up being just
enough of a change to drop us below the advisory level heat index values.
As stated many many times, all heat safety precautions should continue
to be taken whether or not a Heat Advisory is in effect. At this time,
deepening tropical Gulf moisture and associated rains toward end of
next week look to remain well south of our area.
Wondering what our rainfall totals for the year look like?
City of College Station`s 15.46 inches is 2.92 inches below normal.
City of Houston`s 19.82 inches is 0.92 inches below normal.
Houston Hobby`s 11.28 inches is 10.04 inches below normal.
City of Galveston`s 9.56 inches is 5.96 inches below normal.
42
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds can be expected through
Monday night. Caution flags might be needed in the Friday night through
Monday night time period when a sometimes tightening pressure gradient
could bring slightly higher winds to parts of the area.
42
.CLIMATE...
For the third consecutive day (June 6-8), Galveston set new
record high minimum temperature records with lows of 83, 83 and
84 degrees. Yesterday`s 84 degrees was only one degree off of the
all-time record high minimum temperature record for June of 85
degrees last set in 2021. Galveston`s average temperature so far
this month (June 1-8) is 85.9 degrees which is 3.4 degrees above
normal and ranks as the warmest June 1-8 on record (second place
is 85.5 degrees set in 2008). Galveston`s June records date back
to 1874.
Houston Hobby jumped on the June temperature record wagon yesterday
by setting a new record high of 97 degrees. This tied the old
record of 97 set back in 1948. Hobby`s June records date back to
1931.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 93 83 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Update from Jeff:
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will settle over Texas this weekend to produce a period of near record heat.
While it is always hot in SE TX in summer, the upcoming weekend will feature an early season heat wave. Mid and upper level high pressure will build over the southern plains through the weekend resulting in strong heating. Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce a SW/SSW low level wind, which is a “hot” wind for us locally instead of the “cooler” S or SE wind flow more directly off the “cooler” Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will increase into the low 100’s for most areas away from the coast on Friday and last through at least Sunday and possible into early next week. Low temperatures will struggle to fall much below 80 at night and remain in the low 80’s along the coast. With the SW winds in the low levels, afternoon humidity values will mix out some allowing heat index numbers of 100-107 over the region. We will be right up against the threshold of heat advisory levels for this region of 108, and it is likely an advisory will be needed for Friday into the weekend.
High pressure will build ENE early next week into the Mid MS valley and this may be just far enough NE to cut a few degrees off the afternoon highs by Tuesday onward. Still be subsidence in place over the area, rain chances will be below 10% for the next 5-7 days.
June heat is somewhat different than August heat in the aspect that our bodies are not fully acclimated to the heat stress in early June versus late August. Take the proper heat precautions (plenty of fluids and frequent breaks if working outside).
2022 vs. 2011:
While it is easy to compare heat and drought to other instances in the past, our current heat and drought is far from what this region and state went through in 2011. Rainfall has been much more plentiful this spring than in 2011, and while some of the temperatures may be similar to the intensity of the heat thus far this year is not to the level of 2011. There are some similar comparisons to drought and heat of the summers of 1998, 1988, and 1980.
Climate:
Galveston is being Galveston again with the warm overnight lows which have become as much of a recent fixture as the very warm nearshore waters. Galveston has failed to fall below 83 degrees for the last 72 hours and the low yesterday was only 84 degrees which is 1 degree shy of the all-time high record low of 85 from last summer. It is not just Galveston either, Palacios has failed to fall below 82 since June 5 until this morning for a low of 80.6. These types of lows are more typical of August than June and directly tied to the nearshore water temperature which is warmer in August than June. This year however, nearshore water temperatures are already 83-85 along the coast. Additionally, gusty winds late into the evening have helped to prevent much of a temperature fall during the overnight hours. So while the temperatures along the coast are in the low to mid 90’s during the afternoon, it is unpleasantly warm in the overnight periods.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will settle over Texas this weekend to produce a period of near record heat.
While it is always hot in SE TX in summer, the upcoming weekend will feature an early season heat wave. Mid and upper level high pressure will build over the southern plains through the weekend resulting in strong heating. Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce a SW/SSW low level wind, which is a “hot” wind for us locally instead of the “cooler” S or SE wind flow more directly off the “cooler” Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will increase into the low 100’s for most areas away from the coast on Friday and last through at least Sunday and possible into early next week. Low temperatures will struggle to fall much below 80 at night and remain in the low 80’s along the coast. With the SW winds in the low levels, afternoon humidity values will mix out some allowing heat index numbers of 100-107 over the region. We will be right up against the threshold of heat advisory levels for this region of 108, and it is likely an advisory will be needed for Friday into the weekend.
High pressure will build ENE early next week into the Mid MS valley and this may be just far enough NE to cut a few degrees off the afternoon highs by Tuesday onward. Still be subsidence in place over the area, rain chances will be below 10% for the next 5-7 days.
June heat is somewhat different than August heat in the aspect that our bodies are not fully acclimated to the heat stress in early June versus late August. Take the proper heat precautions (plenty of fluids and frequent breaks if working outside).
2022 vs. 2011:
While it is easy to compare heat and drought to other instances in the past, our current heat and drought is far from what this region and state went through in 2011. Rainfall has been much more plentiful this spring than in 2011, and while some of the temperatures may be similar to the intensity of the heat thus far this year is not to the level of 2011. There are some similar comparisons to drought and heat of the summers of 1998, 1988, and 1980.
Climate:
Galveston is being Galveston again with the warm overnight lows which have become as much of a recent fixture as the very warm nearshore waters. Galveston has failed to fall below 83 degrees for the last 72 hours and the low yesterday was only 84 degrees which is 1 degree shy of the all-time high record low of 85 from last summer. It is not just Galveston either, Palacios has failed to fall below 82 since June 5 until this morning for a low of 80.6. These types of lows are more typical of August than June and directly tied to the nearshore water temperature which is warmer in August than June. This year however, nearshore water temperatures are already 83-85 along the coast. Additionally, gusty winds late into the evening have helped to prevent much of a temperature fall during the overnight hours. So while the temperatures along the coast are in the low to mid 90’s during the afternoon, it is unpleasantly warm in the overnight periods.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 I says the 12z GFS goes with a category 3 scaricane into the central louisiana coast
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Anddd the 12z GFS continues its drunken trend! Cat 2 into far SW Lousiana and then gets shoved into texas as a TS not happening but hey points for persistence at least!
not happening but hey points for persistence at least!-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
I wouldn't say it's not going to happen. I would just say it's highly unlikely given the current setup. However, things can change.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 12:18 pm Anddd the 12z GFS continues its drunken trend! Cat 2 into far SW Lousiana and then gets shoved into texas as a TS
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
captainbarbossa19 fair point, and it has been moving up in time on the GFS the past few runs, guess it is maybe worth at least monitoring somewhat
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captainbarbossa19
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- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I think we need to start watching the GFS trends a little more seriously, I have noticed aince the 00z run from yesterday, it has been moving up development time by several days, when you look for potential development, seeing if a model moves it up in or time or moves back is very important , i have the 00z and 18z run( just came out and their is a 60 hour or nearly 2.5 day move up time on this newest run) disregarding the intensity and location right now, just thought id share what I see .
00z run ( bottom ) yesterday and todays 18z run( top) we are getting within a 10 day window now on the GFS, im not saying the GFS is going to be right and something develops, but it is starting to get somewhat interesting
00z run ( bottom ) yesterday and todays 18z run( top) we are getting within a 10 day window now on the GFS, im not saying the GFS is going to be right and something develops, but it is starting to get somewhat interesting
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