June 2022

[Stratton20]

Lol their is always that one intensity model that shows a hurricane, SHIPS had too much to drink

[Cromagnum]

48 hours (or more) over bathwater can do a lot under the right conditions.

[don]

I wonder if the NHC will go up to 40% medium at 2pm update?

[Dls2010r]

I think recon is scheduled.

[don]

Yep Recon scheduled for tomorrow afternoon.I think they will raise the chances to medium at the 2pm update then.We'll see...

SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 29/1730Z A. 30/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 29/1530Z C. 30/0330Z
D. 26.0N 96.0W D. 26.5N 97.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2100Z E. 30/0500Z TO 30/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. INVEST G. FIX

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. RESUME 6-HRLY FIXES ON PTC AT 30/1730Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
AND IS A THREAT.

[djmike]

Yeah I think we will have a surprise on our hands. Been in this home brew situation before and storms have exploded right before landfall. Not saying that will happen but if 95L stays over this much heated waters of the gulf, it’s plausible. I think it was Humberto and maybe Imelda that we went to sleep one night to wake up to a full blown named storm by morning. Think 95L will only be a low to mid TS at most if it gets its act together. All of this is IMO only. But some MAYBE caught off guard if this gets its act together.

[Cpv17]

Lol their is always that one intensity model that shows a hurricane, SHIPS had too much to drink

That model does that a lot lol

[captainbarbossa19]

12z HRRR is not a tropical model, but wow it shows great outflow Thursday morning from the system. I think this has a decent chance of making landfall as Bonnie or Colin.

[tireman4]

Back home...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281712
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions prevail throughout the majority of the period as
northeasterly winds gradually become more easterly/southeasterly
as the day goes on. The bulk of the SHRA/TSRA will remain off the
coast today and the latest run of high-res model guidance provided
enough to take VCTS out of the GLS TAF for today. There is still
potential for SHRA/TSRA along the coast, but the probabilities are
now low enough to remove them. Winds become light and variable
overnight and pick up out of the northeast around 10 knots in the
morning. Wednesday morning is the part of the forecast that gets a
bit tricky since rain coverage is highly dependent on where a
surface low in the Gulf is located. Model trends right now point
towards rain moving in near and south of I-10 in the morning
hours, so have added VCSH for IAH and southward with earlier start
times the closer to the coast you go.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...

Say goodbye to triple digit heat (for at least a little while) and
hello to low to mid 90s high temperatures today and tomorrow. This
is thanks to the boundary that pushed through yesterday bringing
some cooler air down our way combined with cloud cover. Overnight
low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for most of the
region tonight and tomorrow night with the immediate coast staying
in the upper 70s to near 80.

The aforementioned boundary has stalled offshore and will be
developing a weak low pressure system along it tonight into
Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist over the coastal waters through this morning with some of
the precipitation moving onshore during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The exact location of these storms will be driven
mainly by boundary collisions and other mesoscale processes, so
unfortunately will not be able to get to precise in the location of
the storms today. However, the best chance for the precipitation
will be along the immediate coast. Localized rainfall of up to 0.5"
will be possible where the storms set up.

An increase in the coastal showers and thunderstorms will occur
tonight into Wednesday morning as the low pressure system develops.
The majority of these storms will still stay offshore during the day
on Wednesday, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
stretch further inland Wednesday evening closer to the I-10
corridor. The system strengthens and move closer to the coast
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning increasing the
precipitation chances across the coast. Rainfall totals during the
day on Wednesday will be around 0.25" to 0.5" for where the storms
develop. Then, rainfall amounts Wednesday night into Thursday
morning will be heavily dependent on how close the system gets to
the coast. Coastal counties, and especially the counties around
Matagorda Bay, may get up to an additional 0.5" inch of rain
Wednesday night. These are the areas where we have the worst drought
conditions currently, so this can be some very beneficial rainfall.
More on this developing system in the long term below.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Most deterministic global models agree that a broad and
disorganized surface low will be centered somewhere near the
Texas coast between our southwestern coastal waters and
Brownsville. I know, that`s a wide range, but that is typical with
surface troughs such as these since it`s evolution will really be
mesoscale driven and lots of uncertainty remains. Regardless, it
appears that most of its associated rainfall will be north and
east of the low. Therefore, rainfall totals for our area greatly
depend on where along the Texas coast this low pushes inland.
Further north, we get more rain, further south, we get less rain.
Once this weak low pushes inland on the TX coast on Thursday, it
will slowly push north through our CWA on Thursday and Friday,
and into Central Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon. This deep and
warm air mass will bring steady rain across the area with areas
south of I-10 reaching upwards of 3 inches of rain while areas
north of I-10 reaching upwards of 1-2 inches through Saturday.
Keep in mind, much can still change with the forecast as this
surface trough evolves, so check back frequently for updated
forecasts.

Saturday onwards, high pressure fills in behind this shortwave,
bringing back the typical pattern of isolated afternoon showers
and hot temperatures.

Lenninger

&&

.MARINE...

A broad and disorganized low will develop roughly 100 to 200
miles south of Galveston today and push towards the lower Texas
coast on Thursday. We can expect some unsettled weather until
Saturday for our offshore waters with frequent showers and storms
along with increasing winds and wave heights. Long period swells
could increase rip current risk for our beaches as well.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 72 95 73 91 / 10 10 10 0 40
Houston (IAH) 95 77 93 75 88 / 20 20 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 89 81 88 / 30 50 50 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Cpv17]

12z HRRR is not a tropical model, but wow it shows great outflow Thursday morning from the system. I think this has a decent chance of making landfall as Bonnie or Colin.

HMON and HWRF are pretty boring.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z HRRR is not a tropical model, but wow it shows great outflow Thursday morning from the system. I think this has a decent chance of making landfall as Bonnie or Colin.

HMON and HWRF are pretty boring.

They are struggling because there is no defined COC yet. Looks like there are multiple vortices on satellite this afternoon. I am betting the one further north becomes dominant and the one convectionless dissipates. One vortex is located around 26.8 N, 92.5 W. The other one is about 27.5 N, 92.6 W.

[tireman4]

As I stated at Storm 2K, whatever this is and becomes, it bears watching. Bear watch continues.

[Cpv17]

Up to 40% now.

[tireman4]

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next
two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next
two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

This evolution sure is similar to Imelda. NHC maxed chances at 50% before declaring it a depression.

[Kingwood32]

The little storm that could...lol

[don]

Yep code orange

[mcheer23]

WPC has increased rainfall totals.

[tireman4]

WPC has increased rainfall totals.

Now that, my young friend, will put a dent in drought issues for some issues if this verifies.

[captainbarbossa19]

WPC has increased rainfall totals.

Now that, my young friend, will put a dent in drought issues for some issues if this verifies.

Honestly, I will not be surprised if this is underestimating rainfall amounts considering we are talking about a slow-moving tropical system.