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Latest CPC forecast doesn’t look that bad for rain actually.

Missed out on the rain. Glad I watered the hydrangeas today. There is a chance of rain again Saturday and Sunday. Also there will be a few small chances next week. Interestingly, the Euro shows the possibility of storms moving in from the N/NE next Saturday. If this happens, watch out for very strong storms with lots of lightning.

I forgot to turn on sprinklers before we left for Minnesota...but there was JUST enough rain while away where I could run the sectors this morning. We arrived late last night, but a few popcorn showers provided CLL with spotty rain yesterday. Bushes, trees, and grass look OK. Tomorrow am will be time for the time release 2% iron Sta Green 29-0-5 fertilizer. Scotts doesn't get the job done. We have high Na+ and gray clay therefore alkaline water. That bolus of iron and nitrogen is ideal for St. Augustine, tree feeding, etc.

12z GFS features a chance of rain tomorrow, around the 12th and an actual FROPA on the 17th. 1-2 inches of rain over the next two weeks. Fingers crossed!

12z GEPS and GEFS ensemble runs at hour 216-240 ish, both ensembles are showing a signal for maybe some more mischief down the road, just gotta watch and see if they continue to show this, it is hurricane season after all haha

Don't we have another thread for tropical development?

Ah your right, i figured since its June id post it here, ill delete it, just figured it would be something interesting to mention in the june thread

Ensembles are also seeing the front around the 16th/17th. We'll see!

It wouldn’t surprise me if someone tomorrow gets a really heavy downpour.

Nasty storm headed towards my mother in law's place in Monahans. West Texas is looking rough tonight.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:14 pm Nasty storm headed towards my mother in law's place in Monahans. West Texas is looking rough tonight.

Hell they need all the rain out there they can get. Let it pour!

Inlaws said it came with some pretty big hail, golfball sized in some spots. So that part stinks.

Had a brief shower this morning in CLL. Cells moved SE and faded.

I'll take it, though. This week is going to be a scorcher.

Very hot the next 7-10 days, dont really see any appreciable rain chances during l that time, however we may need to watch tge western GOM/ caribbean late next weekend for some mischief, 18z GEFS still showing.

Time to run the sprinklers. Things about to dry out. Yuck.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:46 am Time to run the sprinklers. Things about to dry out. Yuck.

I ran ours full blast last night. Nuthin' but 100s and high DPs on the NOAA forecast. The Big Suck.

Really did enjoy the weather in Minn, Iowa, and Arkansas...everyone was outside.

This will be the hottest week of the year coming up with temps every day in the mid to upper 90’s across most of the area but on the other end of this heatwave we may end up getting some tropical moisture.

It will be hot for the next several days, but we need to watch closely on Saturday the setup. The ridge retreats slightly to the west to allow a possible sneak attack of storms from the east. These storms will likely be very intense if they make it, as they will be arriving in the evening with lots of heat to work with.

CMC brings in a tropical system and rain around the 15/16th of the month.

We're progged around 100°F and scorching all week.

We're hotter than Waco currently. I've got to water and feed the trees this evening.

Death Ridge engaged. We're in better shape right now than 2011, but not sure west of I-35 is.

FXUS64 KHGX 061738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most sites through the next 24
hours. Our northernmost sites (CLL and UTS) could see a few hours
of MVFR from 09-14Z, but that will scatter and lift out by mid
morning tomorrow. Otherwise, we can expect breezy southerly winds
this afternoon and through tomorrow. With high pressure building
in overhead, rain is not expected for the near future.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Still expecting a rising temperature and heat index trend to start
out the new week with a persistent onshore flow across our area and
a building mid/upper level ridge across the state. Today`s and
Tuesday`s high temperatures will likely be the coolest of the week
with readings expected to work their way into the mid to upper 90s
inland and to around 90 at the coast. Lows will struggle to fall
below the low to mid 70s inland and below the low 80s at the coast.
Expect some late night through early morning cloud development, but
skies should become mostly sunny during the day. Heat index values
both days should peak in a 100-106 range, and all safety precautions
should be taken. Heat Advisories will be possible.

42

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

The heat and humidity will continue through next weekend as a
strong upper level ridge remains over Texas. High temperatures
will be at least in the mid to upper 90s for the entire long term
with triple digit hit possible Friday and Saturday. Southerly flow
at the surface will pump mid to upper 70s dew points into
southeast Texas resulting in heat indices in the 105 to 108
degrees. Heat Advisories may eventually be needed by Wednesday
through the weekend.

Heat deaths are preventable: stay hydrated, take breaks in the
shade/AC, and NEVER leave a child/pet/person in a vehicle. And
with schools entering summer break, you may be thinking of
bringing the kids to the beach for some heat relief. There will
be a high risk of rip currents with onshore flow through the week,
so make sure to swim near a life guard. If caught in a rip
current, yell to get the attention of someone then swim parallel
to the shore until you are out of the rip then swim to shore.

With the high pressure overhead, expect little to no chance of
rain through the week. A weak boundary may approach the region
from the north this weekend bringing some showers or thunderstorms,
but limited precipitation to a slight chance as the boundary may
wash out before reaching the area.

Fowler

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will persist through the week of 15 to 20kts
resulting in the need for small craft to exercise caution. Wave
heights will be between 4 and 6 feet through the week as well.
There is a chance for Small Craft Advisories Tuesday night as wind
gusts go to 25kts. The onshore flow will lead to a high risk of
rip currents this week.

Fowler


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 95 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 0

The June ECCWF forecast came out and man do i really hope it is wrong, it is calling for 19 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with a predicted ACE of 225 I dont know what the average ACE is but I know that is well above normal,