Wx Infinity Forums

The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:21 pm The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.

One thing to watch is if we do get TC genesis in the gulf next week that could form a weakness in the ridge and maybe allow 94L/ future Bonnie to move into the gulf.But a long way out,so not concerned at this point.Its more likely to move into central America.

Just my yearly “Summer Sucks” post. Absolutely worthless time of the year weather wise.

See y’all again for a Hurricane or when Fall starts.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241722
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period with scattered clouds around 4000-6000ft developing during
the the afternoon today. Winds will shift from the southwest to
the south as the seabreeze pushes inland this afternoon,
increasing to around 10 knots before becoming light and variable
overnight. We continue to anticipate a low chance of isolated
showers developing along the sea breeze, but confidence is too low
to include any precip wording in TAFs at this time.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will remain overhead today and tomorrow, so the
overall weather pattern stays relatively the same. Temperatures
through Saturday will still reach the triple digits (100-102 degF)
for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 90s (94-98 degF) for
areas south of I-10. Isolated areas could reach 103 degF,
especially across the Brazos Valley, but forecast temperatures are
not widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory at this time.
However, a short-fused advisory cannot be ruled out should more
areas start reaching that 103 degF threshold for temperature.
Expect the sea breeze to push inland from the coast each afternoon
and reach as far north as northern Harris and central Liberty
County. This sea breeze should kick up some isolated showers and
storms in the afternoon, but activity will subside shortly after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, temperatures
will gradually cool off overnight with lows reaching the mid to
upper 70s for inland locations and low 80s near the coast.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday Night]...

The long-term period starts off with the upper-level ridge
centered over the Lower MS Valley by Sunday. Therefore, the heat
will continue with light southerly winds and plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will soar into the triple digits, with the hottest
values over the Brazos Valley area. With strong subsidence aloft,
little if any precipitation is expected.

Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal during the
workweek. Highs will mainly range from the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows from the mid 70s to low 80s.

05


.MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the northwestern Gulf will continue to
bring light onshore flow and low seas through early next week.
Winds may become moderate at night with gusts up to 20 knots. A
weak frontal boundary is progged to move over the coastal waters
Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 75 102 73 101 77 / 10 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 77 100 76 100 79 / 10 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 94 83 95 82 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones:
Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Washington.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...05

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:26 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:21 pm The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.

One thing to watch is if we do get TC genesis in the gulf next week that could form a weakness in the ridge and maybe allow 94L/ future Bonnie to move into the gulf.But a long way out, so not concerned at this point.Its more likely to move into central America.

Thought you would enjoy the 500 mb anomaly prog. The weak tropical system becomes a donut hole on CMC and GFS.

18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:35 pm 18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Gimme all of this right here.

And then the GFS tries to develop something else in the Gulf a few days after that. It heads towards us too. Deep down, I feel like this is a Lucy setup.

94L makes a run at us too in this 18z run! Happy hr hard at work!

Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:07 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:35 pm 18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Gimme all of this right here.

I love seeing the Euro piling on for Monday.

CMC, GFS, ICON kick up GOM tropical systems through the forecast period.

From FB:
Jeff Lindner

Formation chances for a tropical system up to 60% with current Eastern Atlantic wave heading in the general direction of the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Id imagine tommorow or sunday the NHC might put out an area to watch in the GOM

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:04 pm Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Did you finally move back home?

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:02 pm CMC, GFS, ICON kick up GOM tropical systems through the forecast period.

I noticed that. If it means lots of rain then I say, "bring it." Although, we can quickly go from a very dry pattern to the opposite. This area has experienced too many tropical flood events to encourage several systems.

0Z ICON with a tropical storm into southwest Louisiana similar to its 12Z run.

The ICON has the storm just barely moving after make landfall in Louisiana, it sits their for a day or so dropping alot of rain, kind of appears like it stalls the system to me

0Z GFS with a tropical low or Depression into Corpus

I really hope the south Texas and Louisiana solutions don't happen. Neither one would give us much rain at all, especially if it visits our Cajun pals.