Wx Infinity Forums

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:07 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:35 pm 18z GFS still develops a weak depression/ storm as it moves west towards matagorda bay

Gimme all of this right here.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:04 pm Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:02 pm CMC, GFS, ICON kick up GOM tropical systems through the forecast period.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:09 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:04 pm Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Did you finally move back home?

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:01 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:09 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:04 pm Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.

Did you finally move back home?

Not permanently but we’re at our place down here for awhile. Everything here is lush and green. I don’t miss the 100 degree heat.

Attention then turns to Monday night into Tuesday as deterministic
models and some ensemble means develop an area of low pressure along
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest GFS and NAM (00Z Sat) bring
a closed low developing along the Upper TX coast by early Tuesday,
moving inland on Wed. The ECMWF, on the other hand, remains slower
and does not develop a closed low. While there are some
disagreements with the strength and phase of this easterly wave;
models do agree in bringing an uptick in moisture. In fact,
precipitable waters are near the 90th percentile of NAEFS and GEFS
climatology with values over 2.0 inches along the coast. Confidence
in the evolution of this easterly wave and the probability of
becoming a tropical cyclone is very low at this time (20 percent per
NHC) as there are questions as to how supportive the environment
will be for tropical cyclone. With that being said, have kept a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the period, with
better chances along and south of I-10.

The uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday and beyond is high as it
will strongly depend on the possible formation of the aforementioned
low pressure and the location of the associated quasi-stationary
boundary. As of now, given the close proximity to either the quasi-
stationary front and/or the sfc low to our region and deep moisture
in the BL, will leave the rain/storm chances wording in the
forecast Wed into Friday, with the best chances along the coast.

djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!

djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!