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While I believe most of us will get beneficial rains out of this, we just have to monitor the flood threat carefully, as with any tropical system the rain rates could be high, and a more organized Low could definitely increase those further, not saying we will see flooding, but considering whatever may form doesn’t appear like it will be moving that fast, definitely could see some flooding problems, I hope we dont but we have seen time after time these weak tropical systems are notorious for creating flood problems here in Se Texas

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:42 am

djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!

Actually, that’s kinda false. Depending on the size of the system and how much it’s sheared, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana can see rain from a system that tracks into deep south Texas. The sweet spot for southeast Texas would be anywhere from Port O’Connor to Sargent. If any tc comes ashore in between those areas there’s a really good chance everyone in southeast TX will see some good rains. The north and east side of the system 9 times outta 10 is where all the action is at.

True true. I didn’t factor in the potential of a sheared system. Is there any indications of shear during that time? I do remember harvey well below Hou and us getting hammered.

12Z ICON with landfall around Matagorda.

12Z GFS is weaker than the 6Z run with the system, it keeps it as a tropical low into Corpus.

Hoping we get some well needed rainfall and nothing more but we shall see.

I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update

Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:35 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update

Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol

I'm hoping the 12z Euro comes on board, but it may not even if something was actually developing knowing its history.

Cpv17 Honestly though the whole of SE Texas could probably use a good 4-6 inches of rain( spread out of course) to put a good dent in this drought, will be important to watch the mesoscale models over the next few days as they usually do pretty decent with rain fall totals

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:36 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:35 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update

Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol

I'm hoping the 12z Euro comes on board, but it may not even if something was actually developing knowing its history.

If the Euro jumps onboard then you’ll start seeing a lot more people talk about it.

Remember, the saturation points are very high. That being said, tropical rains can have training to them, causing flooding

No surprise the Euro still shows no development, honestly this system could become a hurricane and the euro still wouldnt pick up on it until after making landfall

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:44 pm No surprise the Euro still shows no development, honestly this system could become a hurricane and the euro still wouldnt pick up on it until after making landfall

Actually, the Euro has a slightly more defined area of vorticity to the southeast of Corpus Christi. It sends whatever forms to the NNW, so we should see some beneficial rain from this.

captainbarbossa19 that is true, though this will likely be weak if it develops, I still do not trust the fact that the GFS has light wind shear over the NW Gulf plus the absolute bath rocket sea temps this will be moving into, granted it will have maybe 48 hours over water, not saying we will definitely get surprised but I am a little weary that this thing “ COULD” end up surprising us , it does have a favorable environment, time over water is its big limiting factor

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:55 pm captainbarbossa19 that is true, though this will likely be weak if it develops, I still do not trust the fact that the GFS has light wind shear over the NW Gulf plus the absolute bath rocket sea temps this will be moving into, granted it will have maybe 48 hours over water, not saying we will definitely get surprised but I am a little weary that this thing “ COULD” end up surprising us , it does have a favorable environment, time over water is its big limiting factor

48 hours over water in favorable conditions is plenty of time for a system to get going.

On the positive side, the Euro has widespread 2-3 inch totals over the next week. That will certainly help with drought conditions. Another thing to consider is that many areas may receive more than that since it is averaged. Also, this is assuming nothing of significance develops in the Gulf so the totals would likely increase if anything does.

Humberto 2007 went from an area of disturbed weather off the Upper TX Coast to a CAT 1 hurricane and landfall just E of High Island in less than 24 hours with rapid intensification.

Not weather related but the Astros just won 3-0 and no-hit the Yankees and they’re the only team since 1958 to no hit them and they’ve done it twice!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:14 pm Not weather related but the Astros just won 3-0 and no-hit the Yankees and they’re the only team since 1958 to no hit them and they’ve done it twice!

It was an awesome game! The Yankees come into town Thursday for 1 game and Verlander and Cole are supposed to be pitching against each other!

What makes it better is that it was against Cole in their home up there!