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What’s interesting to me is that it’s supposed to intensify in the Caribbean. I don’t even remember the last time I saw the Caribbean being a favorable place for tc’s. Usually that’s like a graveyard.

The gulf spinner seems to be a south texas storm. IMO. Hopefully it will traverse close enough to give us some good showers along its way. Just IMO. Haven’t seen any support either on shearing. Of course all can change and has time to do so. All I want is some beneficial showers like the rest of Tx.

12Z GFS back to developing the system. Has it as a Depression that rides the coast from south Texas to the middle Texas coast as a trough in the northwest starts to pick it up.The 12Z ICON does the same but has the trough a little deeper so the storm moves more northeast towards the Sabine.Basically still uncertainty in strength and track.

I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC nudge up development chances based on todays 12z runs

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:49 am I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC nudge up development chances based on todays 12z runs

Yeah. I think the odds are a bit higher than 20%. I would think probably 40% now, which may be a little conservative still.

Since we don't have an invest yet there are no spaghetti model plots. So here's a very rough map of what most models are showing as far as track. Models have the area of low pressure diving southwest as high pressure builds.Then a trough moves from the northwest to the northern plains by mid week that is what starts to pull the storm north.

(SUBJECT TO CHANGE/REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL DATA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

Latest GEFS run features a rather large increase of support for development compared to 0z.

NHC still no change at 2 pm outlook, still at 20%, being conservative as usual

Who cares, just bring on the gyre and moisture.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:10 pm NHC still no change at 2 pm outlook, still at 20%, being conservative as usual

Shocker lol

Cpv17 I am a little surprised that they didnt bump it up to at least 30%, maybe they are waiting on the Euro? It did only just come on board in its last model run

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:16 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:10 pm NHC still no change at 2 pm outlook, still at 20%, being conservative as usual

Shocker lol

I wish they would at least tag it. Hurricane models would start analyzing it then. It may not matter if it doesn't develop, but there is a chance it could overperform, so it would be nice to have more data at least.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:19 pm Cpv17 I am a little surprised that they didnt bump it up to at least 30%, maybe they are waiting on the Euro? It did only just come on board in its last model run

While the Euro did come onboard with a stronger tropical low, it still doesn't show TC genesis yet.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:15 pm Who cares, just bring on the gyre and moisture.

Need a big drink of lemonade.

GFS and Ensembles have unsettled weather, especially near the coast over the next 7-10 days.

Very welcome. I'll take even clouds at this point!

Don Something I do find interesting on that Euro run is that its not particular moving that fast, at least on this run it keeps the low in our vicinity through friday, definitely a good track on the euro for rain

Even with the Euro not showing development, its painting some hefty rainfall totals with the tropical low.

Jeff Lindner

Rainfall amounts have been increased into next week with decaying front over the area and increasing tropical moisture.
Widespread amounts of 1-2 inches looking likely over much of SE TX with isolated higher amounts.

don wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:52 pm Even with the Euro not showing development, its painting some hefty rainfall totals with the tropical low.

Bring it!

I hope that major area of rainfall expands to share that wealth. 1 inch of rain will go straight in the cracks in my yard and dissappear.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:03 pm I hope that major area of rainfall expands to share that wealth. 1 inch of rain will go straight in the cracks in my yard and dissappear.

Wait till the mesoscale models come into range.