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So much for those nice storms in Beaumont. I see the outflow ahead of them shutting everything down.

There's a cluster of cells near Huntsville.

Expecting another Lucy, but come to poppa!

0Z ICON into the Sabine as a tropical storm.For right now the ICON still remains an outlier as all the other models are much further west.Lets see what the rest of the models show tonight.

0Z GFS showing a Depression riding the coast north into Matagorda or Port Aransas, it also keeps the center a little more offshore in this run.It has rainfall further inland also.With widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with some of our western counties getting up to 10 inches of rain.

GFS has a max bullseye of 18 inches just off shore on that run, something to keep an eye on

We made it out alive! No more 100+ temps this week. The cloud cover, rain showers and forecasted low 90s will be quite a treat this week. I have never been so excited for clouds and rain as I have this past week. Bring it! All week!! Hopefully everyone will get some beneficial rain this week. A weak (nearby) tropical disturbance or TS couldn’t have come at a better time. Now hopefully it traverses just right that its a win win for all.

So for days and days and days Monday (today) was supposed to be a big rain day. And now the latest forecast only has 30%??
That’s just not right. Lucy Lucy waves hello.

Ch 13 making it sound like rain chances north of I-10 are on the low side this week.

I swear, if they aren't being too conservative, they go into full panic mode and nothing happens.

NWS still showing < 1 inch of rain for the area through Tuesday.

Seems like they are all conservative till the day of the event then they go into panic mode

I bet we have tropical storm/depression this week

Expect chances of development to go up today... The conservative EURO finally shows shows TC genesis in its 6Z run this morning.It has a Tropical Storm making landfall near Matagorda.

Well again it’s looking more and more like bulk of the showers stay off shore till at least Thursday. Rain chances lowered here in Beaumont till Thursday. Hopefully this changes but Im not holding my breath. My Opinion Only.

Where does the low trek after Matagorda? If it treks close enough and we remain on the right side, we may get enough rain but again, anyones guess…

Nearly all models have the "dirty side" and area of most precip over SE Texas.

Chances weren't raised still 10% and 20%

I say it will go up to 30 percent later than 50 by wed morning

Kingwood32 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:50 am Chances weren't raised still 10% and 20%

Yeah i wasn't expecting them to raise it this morning.They still want to see 12Z model runs im sure before raising it probably this afternoon or evening.Hopefully we get an invest today also.

Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.