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I bet we have tropical storm/depression this week

Expect chances of development to go up today... The conservative EURO finally shows shows TC genesis in its 6Z run this morning.It has a Tropical Storm making landfall near Matagorda.

Well again it’s looking more and more like bulk of the showers stay off shore till at least Thursday. Rain chances lowered here in Beaumont till Thursday. Hopefully this changes but Im not holding my breath. My Opinion Only.

Where does the low trek after Matagorda? If it treks close enough and we remain on the right side, we may get enough rain but again, anyones guess…

Nearly all models have the "dirty side" and area of most precip over SE Texas.

Chances weren't raised still 10% and 20%

I say it will go up to 30 percent later than 50 by wed morning

Kingwood32 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:50 am Chances weren't raised still 10% and 20%

Yeah i wasn't expecting them to raise it this morning.They still want to see 12Z model runs im sure before raising it probably this afternoon or evening.Hopefully we get an invest today also.

Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:53 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:02 am So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.

It was always suppose to be scattered storms.If you want widespread rain you'll have to wait to see how the tropical feature evolves later this week...

12Z NAM with a Tropical Storm making landfall in Matagorda very similar to the 6Z EURO.Most of the mesoscale models I've seen so far this morning are coming in more aggressive with the storm.

The 12Z WRF models also came in more aggressive both show a moderate Tropical Storm now.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:34 am So for days and days and days Monday (today) was supposed to be a big rain day. And now the latest forecast only has 30%??
That’s just not right. Lucy Lucy waves hello.

Total bust IMBY last night. The cells circumvented us.

Most of the mesos have sparse rain over the next few days. This is about the most optimistic.

Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

I’m in Santa Fe. The cloud cover is amazing.