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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:53 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:02 am So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.

It was always suppose to be scattered storms.If you want widespread rain you'll have to wait to see how the tropical feature evolves later this week...

12Z NAM with a Tropical Storm making landfall in Matagorda very similar to the 6Z EURO.Most of the mesoscale models I've seen so far this morning are coming in more aggressive with the storm.

The 12Z WRF models also came in more aggressive both show a moderate Tropical Storm now.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:34 am So for days and days and days Monday (today) was supposed to be a big rain day. And now the latest forecast only has 30%??
That’s just not right. Lucy Lucy waves hello.

Total bust IMBY last night. The cells circumvented us.

Most of the mesos have sparse rain over the next few days. This is about the most optimistic.

Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

I’m in Santa Fe. The cloud cover is amazing.

Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.

mcheer23 they are pretty conservative, i would be shocked if they dont up the development odds at the 2 pm outlook

don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:59 am Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:17 am

don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:59 am Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there

Yes that's the area that will slowly move west over the next couple of days.

It definitely appears a broad circulation is attempting to form like Don said, interesting days ahead

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:05 am Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.

They have the other wave east of 94L with identical chances over 5 days even though it has less model support. Real-time trends show increasing vorticity over the Gulf at 925 and 850mb. Imo, I agree the chances should be higher than 10/20 at this point.

New update...still 20 percent...

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:13 pm New update...still 20 percent...

They must know something we don't lol...

12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.

don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:37 pm 12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.

Yup, nice rainfall totals though. Widespread 3-5 inches on the west side. Isolated 6+