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I think they did that with imelda, kept that disturbance around 10-20% and when it started to organize they begin to raise chances, might happen like this again “ IF” this disturbance tries to get going

That new line near Beamont better blow up and hit the areas that missed out earlier.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:34 pm I think they did that with imelda, kept that disturbance around 10-20% and when it started to organize they begin to raise chances, might happen like this again “ IF” this disturbance tries to get going

Yep, they kept chances low. The NHC didn't even tag the system that became Imelda until about 24 hours before landfall. It was pretty much a depression when it finally got tagged.

0.00"

0.00”

It's been a while since I've been this happy about .02 inches of rain.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:06 pm0.00”

Same here. Now the cells are north of us and west, instead of south. Completely screwed.

https://youtu.be/NkCa49I6_xw

I just got back from Omaha, and the weather the last two days was glorious. 50s for lows and 80 for a high.

.03 inches at the house in Magnolia

Well it’s my turn for the rainfall but hopefully no 60MPH winds

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
940 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1015 PM CDT.

* At 940 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bacliff, or
over Kemah, moving southwest at around 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
League City, Texas City, Friendswood, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa
Fe, Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock, Kemah, southeastern Clear Lake,
Nassau Bay, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Clear Lake Shores, San
Leon, Bacliff, Kemah Boardwalk and The Johnson Space Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Nice lightning storm facing east towards League City. It would be nicer if it actually brought rain. Looks Ike it's going to die before it gets to me.

Mad lightning here in Friendswood.
Mixed with a bit of rain.

00z ICON still with a weak/moderate tropical storm into matagorda bay fwiw

So lame. I could hear and see the rain coming and the GD storm kicks off an outflow boundary and weakens to nothing. Looks like I'm gonna come up empty once again.

0z GFS is slightly east of 18z. It's about 50 miles west of the ICON. I still think that this is coming in between Palacios and Galveston though. At least it's not going into Brownsville on these runs now.

Very interesting from the 2 am NHC update, gulf disturbance up to 20/30 now and said in their discussion that surface pressures have begun to fall over the past 24 hours

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:28 pm Nice lightning storm facing east towards League City. It would be nicer if it actually brought rain. Looks Ike it's going to die before it gets to me.

I live in League City and I can tell you that in my 42yrs of existence, I have never seen lightning as intense as it was in this storm. Holy Hell, it was insane.

I believe we have invest 95L

AL, 95, 2022062806, , BEST, 0, 264N, 920W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al952022,

Kingwood32 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:10 am I believe we have invest 95L

AL, 95, 2022062806, , BEST, 0, 264N, 920W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al952022,

Yep! They tagged it finally.

Finally an invest.

8am update from NHC

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.