July 2022
One of the reasons why we left DFW was because of the constant 100’s for about a month every summer.
Now we’re starting to see as much down here as I remember up there in the late 80’s - 1990’s
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captainbarbossa19
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We're almost at the climatological peak of summer. Hoping for a ridge breakdown next month at some point. Seasonal forcing should start to weaken the ridge soon. Sunset at my location was 8:22 two weeks ago. Today, it is 8:18. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more afterwards in the evening. The tropics will be heating up soon. 
I like the long days. Standard time is depressing during the switch too. Just need some rain and the ridge to shift so we can return to the tolerable 90’s…captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:06 pm We're almost at the climatological peak of summer. Hoping for a ridge breakdown next month at some point. Seasonal forcing should start to weaken the ridge soon. Sunset at my location was 8:22 two weeks ago. Today, it is 8:18. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more afterwards in the evening. The tropics will be heating up soon.
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Stratton20
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12z EPS 500 mb height anomaly normal does break down the heat ridge next week, maybe a frontal boundary? 12z GEFS also breaks down the ridge as well
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I agree. I love the long days too. So much more you can do. I’ve never understood why people like shorter days.jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:01 pmI like the long days. Standard time is depressing during the switch too. Just need some rain and the ridge to shift so we can return to the tolerable 90’s…captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:06 pm We're almost at the climatological peak of summer. Hoping for a ridge breakdown next month at some point. Seasonal forcing should start to weaken the ridge soon. Sunset at my location was 8:22 two weeks ago. Today, it is 8:18. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more afterwards in the evening. The tropics will be heating up soon.
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captainbarbossa19
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That's why my favorite season is usually spring because the days get longer and it's often much cooler than most of autumn. It's often warm into November and then you have the short days too.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:13 pmI agree. I love the long days too. So much more you can do. I’ve never understood why people like shorter days.jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:01 pmI like the long days. Standard time is depressing during the switch too. Just need some rain and the ridge to shift so we can return to the tolerable 90’s…captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:06 pm We're almost at the climatological peak of summer. Hoping for a ridge breakdown next month at some point. Seasonal forcing should start to weaken the ridge soon. Sunset at my location was 8:22 two weeks ago. Today, it is 8:18. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more afterwards in the evening. The tropics will be heating up soon.
109°F in College Station right now.
Atmospheric abuse!
Atmospheric abuse!
Looks like some sort of fire in northern Walker County.
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TexasBreeze
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Large wildfire north of Huntsville/ Weldon area. Seen on radar and satellite.
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Stratton20
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Lol gotta love it when their is always that one member of the GEFS, that tries to send a hurricane our way at hour 210, not going to happen, but its funny just seeing that their is always that one lone member that tries to do something crazy in the tropics lol
Looking at precip maps makes it look like the ridge is deadlocked over the state (i.e. due to low totals). But looking at the actual patterns on the models actually isn't bad at all — the ridge overall seems to take on a more "Bermuda" configuration going into August, which is better for rain in Texas compared to a "Sonoran" configuration.
As long as the pattern is good, it isn't too bad. I don't care about the low qpf, assuming possibility that models tend to bias against Texas during summer.
As long as the pattern is good, it isn't too bad. I don't care about the low qpf, assuming possibility that models tend to bias against Texas during summer.
Shouldn't humidity in the air decrease evapotranspiration? If so, then the desiccation of plants should technically be slowed here with the 70°F+ dewpoints even in long periods without rain — and I don't understand the presence of wildfires given Red Flag criteria of ~30% or less relative humidity (i.e. although places like Huntsville might be far enough inland for the humidity to be lower).
Update from Jeff Lindner:
After a brief break late last week…the heat will return with force this week.
Wildfire conditions continue to worsen over the state.
Upper level ridge of high pressure is building yet again over the southern plains, this time centered over OK and N TX where surface air temperatures will reach 108-113 degrees over the next few days. Locally SE TX is sitting at the base of the ridge and we will “only” see actual air temperatures in the low 100’s however heat index values will reach 107-112 during the afternoon hours which is good enough for another heat advisory that starts tomorrow and will likely last much of the week. With strong subsidence in place from the ridge aloft, little to no rain is expected. The high will give a bit of ground on Friday as weak upper level low moves inland over S TX from the Gulf. This will be the best chance of rainfall this week, but with moisture generally lacking, thinking maybe 20% is about the best we can get and that may be generous. Highs will remain in the 99-103 range for the entire week into the weekend.
Fire Weather:
The high heat values and dry conditions are starting to materialize in aggressive wildfire activity. Today saw a significant increase in fire starts and highly aggressive fire behavior. Up to today, the majority of the fires have been in the dead/dried fine fuels (grasses) which tend to be small in size and more easily contained. However, today was the first of fires showing extreme fire behavior with aggressive burning into the ladder fuel loads and crowning (tree top runs). The Nelson Creek Fire in Walker County (North of Hunstville) burned 850 acres in 3 hours with significant ladder and crown runs. The fire also exhibited pryo-cumulus smoke formations due to the extreme heat being generated and indicating that the fire was controlling the surrounding weather environment. Ground and air crews also reported extensive spot fires due to the crown runs which can easily overwhelm containment lines.
While fine fuel loads have been ready to burn for weeks, it is now increasingly likely that the ladder (medium) and large fuel loads are reaching the point where they will easily burn. It appears that portions of the area have now reached the point where the larger fuel loads have dried enough that they will readily burn. Another sign that large fuel loads are in stress is the loss of leaves and that has been increasing as the longer term dryness is now reaching depths of 6-8 inches below the soil surface. KBDI values range from 600-760 over the region and any value of 700 or above is considered critical for fire weather. Values also correspond to the depth below the soil surface in inches that is completely void of moisture…so a value of 600 indicates there is no moisture within the top 6 inches of soil. The lower down the soil moisture depletes, the drier the larger fuels become.
In addition, to the drying of the medium and large fuels loads, afternoon humidity has been mixing out into the 25-35% range each afternoon, especially inland of I-10 away from the Gulf seabreeze. This quickly removes any overnight moisture on the fine fuel loads and prepares those sources for quick ignition. Winds today were also a bit stronger than the last few days with 10-15mph and a few gust around 20mph. Given the dry fuel loads, low afternoon humidity values, and gusty afternoon winds, fire weather conditions are near critical thresholds over the next 72 hours. By late week winds should decrease some and slightly higher afternoon humidity will help to mitigate starts…but there will be no recovery to the fuel load dryness without widespread rainfall. Maximum mixing heights over the next two days will range from 6,000-8,000 ft over the region with transport winds from the south at 10-15mph and gusts upwards of 20-23mph.
213 Texas counties are now under burn bans the most since the fall of 2011.
Maximum fire safety precautions should be utilized to prevent fire starts and no outdoor burning should occur. Use extreme caution with any open flame. Keep vehicles off dry grass.
After a brief break late last week…the heat will return with force this week.
Wildfire conditions continue to worsen over the state.
Upper level ridge of high pressure is building yet again over the southern plains, this time centered over OK and N TX where surface air temperatures will reach 108-113 degrees over the next few days. Locally SE TX is sitting at the base of the ridge and we will “only” see actual air temperatures in the low 100’s however heat index values will reach 107-112 during the afternoon hours which is good enough for another heat advisory that starts tomorrow and will likely last much of the week. With strong subsidence in place from the ridge aloft, little to no rain is expected. The high will give a bit of ground on Friday as weak upper level low moves inland over S TX from the Gulf. This will be the best chance of rainfall this week, but with moisture generally lacking, thinking maybe 20% is about the best we can get and that may be generous. Highs will remain in the 99-103 range for the entire week into the weekend.
Fire Weather:
The high heat values and dry conditions are starting to materialize in aggressive wildfire activity. Today saw a significant increase in fire starts and highly aggressive fire behavior. Up to today, the majority of the fires have been in the dead/dried fine fuels (grasses) which tend to be small in size and more easily contained. However, today was the first of fires showing extreme fire behavior with aggressive burning into the ladder fuel loads and crowning (tree top runs). The Nelson Creek Fire in Walker County (North of Hunstville) burned 850 acres in 3 hours with significant ladder and crown runs. The fire also exhibited pryo-cumulus smoke formations due to the extreme heat being generated and indicating that the fire was controlling the surrounding weather environment. Ground and air crews also reported extensive spot fires due to the crown runs which can easily overwhelm containment lines.
While fine fuel loads have been ready to burn for weeks, it is now increasingly likely that the ladder (medium) and large fuel loads are reaching the point where they will easily burn. It appears that portions of the area have now reached the point where the larger fuel loads have dried enough that they will readily burn. Another sign that large fuel loads are in stress is the loss of leaves and that has been increasing as the longer term dryness is now reaching depths of 6-8 inches below the soil surface. KBDI values range from 600-760 over the region and any value of 700 or above is considered critical for fire weather. Values also correspond to the depth below the soil surface in inches that is completely void of moisture…so a value of 600 indicates there is no moisture within the top 6 inches of soil. The lower down the soil moisture depletes, the drier the larger fuels become.
In addition, to the drying of the medium and large fuels loads, afternoon humidity has been mixing out into the 25-35% range each afternoon, especially inland of I-10 away from the Gulf seabreeze. This quickly removes any overnight moisture on the fine fuel loads and prepares those sources for quick ignition. Winds today were also a bit stronger than the last few days with 10-15mph and a few gust around 20mph. Given the dry fuel loads, low afternoon humidity values, and gusty afternoon winds, fire weather conditions are near critical thresholds over the next 72 hours. By late week winds should decrease some and slightly higher afternoon humidity will help to mitigate starts…but there will be no recovery to the fuel load dryness without widespread rainfall. Maximum mixing heights over the next two days will range from 6,000-8,000 ft over the region with transport winds from the south at 10-15mph and gusts upwards of 20-23mph.
213 Texas counties are now under burn bans the most since the fall of 2011.
Maximum fire safety precautions should be utilized to prevent fire starts and no outdoor burning should occur. Use extreme caution with any open flame. Keep vehicles off dry grass.
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Stratton20
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That is the most depressing weather update ive ever seen from Jeff, this summer sucks!
Morning update from Jeff:
Red Flag Warning from 1000am-1000pm: Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Walker, and Washington Counties
Heat Advisory until 800pm: All counties except the coast
Overnight the Texas Forest Service has requested that the criteria for a local Red Flag Warning be lowered to humidity values of 25% and wind speeds of 15mph. Given this requested criteria, locations generally along and N of HWY 105 will meet these values by late morning into the late evening hours and a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Near critical fire weather conditions will be in place southward to near I-10 for this afternoon. As discussed previously, fuel loads have dried to the point where they are highly combustible and fires over the last 24-48 hours have shown rapid growth rates in both the ladder (medium) and crown (large…tree tops). This has been an escalation of the fire weather potential over the last few weeks where mainly the dried grasses (fine fuels) burned. Fire behavior on Monday in northern Walker County and Sunday in Trinity County indicate conditions have or are close to critical levels.
Nelson Creek Fire (Northern Walker County):
Fire is 1500 acres and 35% contained. Air and ground resources have been working the fire overnight in dense pines. Monday afternoon the fire burned nearly 1000 acres in about 3 hours with significant crown runs and forward spotting…both are rare for this area and generally not observed since the 2011 fires. Overnight fire behavior has been moderate, but with weather conditions deteriorating by late morning, expect forward progress on the fire’s north and northeast flanks to resume as southerly winds increase. Numerous agencies have/are responding to this fire including: Huntsville, Lovelady, Weldon, Trinity, Riverside, Crabb Prairie, Walker County, Trinity County, Texas Forest Service, DPS, and various local law enforcement. 12 dozer crews have worked the fire overnight cutting containment lines and have made good progress on the south and southwest sides of the fire. TFS single engine air tanker (SEAT) out of Brownwood has made several drops and additional air resources have been ordered for drops this morning to help in containment lines.
Any fire starts today will have the potential for rapid spread.
Fire Weather Conditions (1000am-1000pm today):
North of HWY 105:
Temperature: 102-106
Heat Index: 105-110
Humidity: 20-28%
Max Mixing Height: 6000-8500 ft
20ft Wind: S at 13-25mph
Transport Wind: S/SW 10-15 kts
North of I-10:
Temperature: 99-102
Heat Index: 105-110
Humidity: 25-40%
Max Mixing Height: 5000-7000 ft
20ft Wind: S at 13-25mph
Transport Wind: S 10-15kts
South of I-10:
Temperature: 96-100
Heat Index: 107-111
Humidity: 35-50%
Max Mixing Height: 4000-6000 ft
20 ft Wind: S 13-25mph (winds will become gusty with passage of the seabreeze late afternoon)
Transport Wind: SW 15 kts
Jeff Lindner
Red Flag Warning from 1000am-1000pm: Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Walker, and Washington Counties
Heat Advisory until 800pm: All counties except the coast
Overnight the Texas Forest Service has requested that the criteria for a local Red Flag Warning be lowered to humidity values of 25% and wind speeds of 15mph. Given this requested criteria, locations generally along and N of HWY 105 will meet these values by late morning into the late evening hours and a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Near critical fire weather conditions will be in place southward to near I-10 for this afternoon. As discussed previously, fuel loads have dried to the point where they are highly combustible and fires over the last 24-48 hours have shown rapid growth rates in both the ladder (medium) and crown (large…tree tops). This has been an escalation of the fire weather potential over the last few weeks where mainly the dried grasses (fine fuels) burned. Fire behavior on Monday in northern Walker County and Sunday in Trinity County indicate conditions have or are close to critical levels.
Nelson Creek Fire (Northern Walker County):
Fire is 1500 acres and 35% contained. Air and ground resources have been working the fire overnight in dense pines. Monday afternoon the fire burned nearly 1000 acres in about 3 hours with significant crown runs and forward spotting…both are rare for this area and generally not observed since the 2011 fires. Overnight fire behavior has been moderate, but with weather conditions deteriorating by late morning, expect forward progress on the fire’s north and northeast flanks to resume as southerly winds increase. Numerous agencies have/are responding to this fire including: Huntsville, Lovelady, Weldon, Trinity, Riverside, Crabb Prairie, Walker County, Trinity County, Texas Forest Service, DPS, and various local law enforcement. 12 dozer crews have worked the fire overnight cutting containment lines and have made good progress on the south and southwest sides of the fire. TFS single engine air tanker (SEAT) out of Brownwood has made several drops and additional air resources have been ordered for drops this morning to help in containment lines.
Any fire starts today will have the potential for rapid spread.
Fire Weather Conditions (1000am-1000pm today):
North of HWY 105:
Temperature: 102-106
Heat Index: 105-110
Humidity: 20-28%
Max Mixing Height: 6000-8500 ft
20ft Wind: S at 13-25mph
Transport Wind: S/SW 10-15 kts
North of I-10:
Temperature: 99-102
Heat Index: 105-110
Humidity: 25-40%
Max Mixing Height: 5000-7000 ft
20ft Wind: S at 13-25mph
Transport Wind: S 10-15kts
South of I-10:
Temperature: 96-100
Heat Index: 107-111
Humidity: 35-50%
Max Mixing Height: 4000-6000 ft
20 ft Wind: S 13-25mph (winds will become gusty with passage of the seabreeze late afternoon)
Transport Wind: SW 15 kts
Jeff Lindner
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Stratton20
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GFS hinting at maybe scattered showers/storms returning next week, big IF though and I frankly dont trust any model that shows rain lol, just holding on to a slimer of hope though, ridge breaks down
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TexasBreeze
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Yeah the 12z doesn't look too bad starting this Thursday.
Last edited by TexasBreeze on Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Rain chances have re-appeared in TWC app starting next Wednesday.