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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:19 pm CPV17 eh way too far out, beyond 10-12 days even in the ensembles is just fantasy land, but for sure the next 10 days is going to suck at the very least

Strong confidence in that forecast. Just watch and wait. This pattern isn’t going anywhere and will only intensify into the end of the month and beginning of August. Book it!

CPV17 lets hope for our sake that your prediction is wrong i dont wanna be cooked like a chicken every day for the next 30+ days haha

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:05 pm CPV17 lets hope for our sake that your prediction is wrong i dont wanna be cooked like a chicken every day for the next 30+ days haha

I’d love to be wrong man no doubt about that. This weather is the worst. I depend on the weather to bring a spark and put some excitement into my life and this is nothing but plain ole boring!

The PWAT map looks good this morning, a nice 2.0"+ pocket centered over Brazoria County that will push over the area today.

It feels like early Nov up here in Seattle. Headed off to an Alaskan cruise……..highs in the 50s and low 60s with clouds.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:56 am The PWAT map looks good this morning, a nice 2.0"+ pocket centered over Brazoria County that will push over the area today.

It needs to start off centered over Rosharon.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:14 am It feels like early Nov up here in Seattle. Headed off to an Alaskan cruise……..highs in the 50s and low 60s with clouds.

Have fun and take pictures!

So far have only seen a little pocket of rain near the coast.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:33 pm So far have only seen a little pocket of rain near the coast.

Yeah the ridge is starting to exert its force. You can see the cumulus clouds are starting to get squashed on satellite.

Starting to think we are going to need 2 tropical systems to get us out of this mess. One to dislodge the blocking low on the east to get the relentless death ridge out of the way. And then a 2nd to actually give us some damned rain.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:14 am It feels like early Nov up here in Seattle. Headed off to an Alaskan cruise……..highs in the 50s and low 60s with clouds.

Latest QPF 7 days. Not a drop of rain for all of Texas. Get ready folks…

Not pretty

Going back to sentiments earlier, the dryness is only as sustained as it is because the Gulf is a very dead ocean. If the Gulf were even remotely active, then the ascent (and resulting moisture depth) would have no issues eating holes in the ridge, even with the cap/subsidence.

Instead, you have whole swaths of dry air from Cape Verde all the way through the Bay of Campeche. Very telling how dead the Atlantic is, when you see how many arid/semi-arid climates encompass many flat islands/coasts in the area (see: ABC islands, southern Bahamas, Yucatan peninsula, etc).

I hate to say it but ill gladly take a weak tropical storm or weak hurricane in august, thats going to be the only way we break this awful patter

djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:10 pm Not pretty
2FF6D589-6518-437C-93C5-24484CA4FAFD.jpeg

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:30 pm I hate to say it but ill gladly take a weak tropical storm or weak hurricane in august, thats going to be the only way we break this awful patter

I've done some thinking, and now realize that widespread rainfall through a season is much superior to an isolated one-day deluge. Even with the good rains that your area had late last month/early July, too long without follow up will bring back wilting, stress ... and just overall plain discomfort as the heat/humidity builds up.

For instance, 2015 and the really soaking spring that was (i.e. topped off with Memorial Day floods). That spring was so soaking wet that Texas became a "brown ocean" during the following June, allowing tropical cyclone Bill to strengthen well inland. Even after all that, a ridge STILL setup from July through early August, bringing "flash drought" with triple digit temps, browning grass, etc.

Summers like this just reemphasize why I will not retire here. The weather in SE Texas is terrible for 3/4 of the year.

I see the Saharan dust layer has setup shop here again. The tropical blue skies are grey and the clouds aren't building much with the drier air. I will say a weak hurricane hit would be bad for those whose power goes out from the hit and the heat post hurricane would be much worse. Keep it a disorganized disturbance or weak storm.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:53 pm Summers like this just reemphasize why I will not retire here. The weather in SE Texas is terrible for 3/4 of the year.

The real problem in SE Texas is the otherwise great climate (via averages) interfered by extremes via deviations — the bottom just drops too heavily. The handful of useless freezing days interferes the otherwise decent winters, while dry spells certain years interferes the otherwise lush, wet summers. The shoulder seasons are, comparatively, flawless.

I still would take SE Texas over the rest of the state, climate wise. With the exception of warmer winter temps in the lower RGV, I can't find any real improvement from Se Texas.

Honestly, the US as a whole is a really poor country in terms of great climates. Freezing weather is useless, which rules out almost anything above I-10. And we are seeing the issues that drought/dryness causes, much of the Western US is a no go. That means that there's really nothing except a sliver of SE US in/adjacent to Florida (as well as the obvious Hawaii).

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:53 pm Summers like this just reemphasize why I will not retire here. The weather in SE Texas is terrible for 3/4 of the year.

I hear ya. Once the youngest graduates we are selling our Texas holdings and moving everything to Florida. I’m done.

Today was it folks for a long time. Get ready. It’s gonna suck now until September and I would bet this drought will end with a tropical system with its own set of problems. Such is life out on the frontier, even in the 21st century.